All Activity

We are uninstalling today. Cool week ahead and then we are on vacation the following week. I’ve never needed a/c in October and doubt I will this year

Declare the flood emergencies now lol

NE Flow starting to push cloud maritime low level clouds west while the higher clouds push east

Icon midweek is lol.

62 for the low here and already up to 74 with some dews...

Medium range models doing not so great. Getting dry again in these parts, with a steady decrease in soil moisture.

Gfs now under .75” of rain as well. Yawn

GFS has caved to the ECM no more rain all next week and it being like November

Good agreement for a really fall-like day on Wednesday with temps potentially staying in the 50s.

58° and sunny at noon Too early for this

Much of this winter warmth will likely be driven by overnight lows IMO due to the active pattern.

Haven't followed too closely, but looks like it's dependent on that coastal low. If we get these types of setups 3 months from now, then I'm gonna really start missing my jeep.

Right now I’m leaning towards a fairly torchy winter with *maybe* 1 salvageable month on the back side where it’s just slightly above normal. Can’t really ignore that every analog that was supposed to give us below normal temps has busted warm thus far into mid september, and there’s no signs of October being cooler than normal yet.

The main CFS site actually has 40 run averages (10 days x 4 runs/day).

71F/DP 55F as we approach noon. Still a little too hot for my liking.

If TD 6 can stay In that narrow pocket of lower shear I could see this system be a bit of a surprise strength wise. Wouldn’t shock me if this approached hurricane strength given the thermodynamic environment it resides in and small size. Obviously if it gets blasted by shear that is moot but this could be a surprise system

Pretty sure that very cold run isn't happening.

Also, the TT maps use colder 1984-2009 climo instead of the CFS site’s 1991-2020. The TT 3 day (12 run) avg does jump around more than the CFS site 10 day (40 run) avg. Regardless, I haven’t seen any 3 day avg Feb recently nearly as cold as those record cold Febs that were on some Aug 3 day means in the SE to S Plains. Then again, that degree of cold was hardly believable especially that far out. They were dreamable for me but not believable. I’ll keep following the trends of both the TT 3 day means and the CFS site 10 day means.

I think at a minimum minor to moderate coastal flooding will be an issue before the coming week is over. Days of easterly fetch and coming full moon combined with developing offshore storm / upper level cut off likely to cause issues.

On the satellite wx page that was posted a while back, you can see the daily CFS run and the 10-run average. As youd expect, it changes wildly every day.

Good call here. Wet wx across the S sub with LP slowly moving across the area, and a strong HP to the N.

September 19 1998: 1 to 1 3/4 inch hail falls in Meeker, Wright, Todd, and Wilkin Counties. Winds were also estimated over 50 knots / 58 miles per hour. 1980: Golfball to baseball sized hail hits St. Paul. One company has 75 to 95 percent of the glass in their greenhouses smashed. For Saturday, September 19, 2026 1947 - The eye of a hurricane passed directly over New Orleans, and the barometric pressure dipped to 28.61 inches. The hurricane killed fifty-one persons, and caused 110 million dollars damage. It produced wind gusts to 155 mph while making landfall over Fort Lauderdale FL two days earlier. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1967 - Hurricane Beulah deluged Brownsville, TX, with 12.19 inches of rain in 24 hours, to establish a record for that location. Hurricane Beulah made landfall on the 20th near the mouth of the Rio Grande River, where a wind gust to 135 mph was reported by a ship in the port. (19th-20th) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Cool autumn-like weather invaded the Central Rockies. Temperatures dipped into the 30s and 40s, with readings in the teens and 20s reported in the higher elevations. Gunnison CO was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 15 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a fast moving cold front produced severe weather in Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. Eight tornadoes were reported, including five in Indiana. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 74 mph at Wabash IND. Winds associated with the cold front itself gusted to 69 mph at Kenosha WI. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast Region. Cape Hatteras NC was deluged with nearly 3.50 inches of rain in three hours. Syracuse NY reported 1.77 inches of rain, a record for the date, and Chatham NJ reported an all-time record of 3.45 inches in one day. Hurricane Hugo headed for the Bahamas, and Tropical Storm Iris, following close on its heels, strengthened to near hurricane force. (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 19 Sat Locate An Old Friend Day 19 Sat National CleanUp Day 19 Sat International Eat an Apple Day 19 Sat International Coastal CleanUp Day 19 Sat National Dance Day 19 Sat National Gymnastics Day 19 Sat Big Whopper Liar Day 19 Sat Batman Day 19 Sat Oktoberfest 19 Sat Talk Like a Pirate Day 19 Sat Aortic Dissection Awareness Day 19 Sat National Cat DNA Day 19 Sat National Meow Like a Pirate Day 19 Sat National Overthinkers Day 19 Sat National Woman Road Warrior Day 19 Sat National Butterscotch Pudding Day