Ginx snewx Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 A cold brutal start, but it appears we moderate quickly to more climo norms the first week, with the models torching us the 8th -15th. It appears finally that winters back will be broken however after mid month, troughy conditions return which could lead to some more miserable days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 A cold brutal start, but it appears we moderate quickly to more climo norms the first week, with the models torching us the 8th -15th. It appears finally that winters back will be broken however after mid month, troughy conditions return which could lead to some more miserable days. We might need a suicide watch for some on this board if that happens. I think a bigger question is will this be another May that puts some snow on the ground. That would be a nice ending to an epic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 12z ECMWF still has the giant cut off low and noreaster for the first few days of May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 I mean how cold could it realistically be with a trough in late May? Get us through early May and I think we are finally in the clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 80+ May 4th - 5th on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 80+ May 4th - 5th on EuroYeah happy b'day to me. Too bad it's a d10 op run. If we can keep that low over the SE maybe we can pull off a halfway decent stretch starting next week. Ens look pretty warm for the 4th as well. Maybe a NW flow COC stretch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Yeah happy b'day to me. Too bad it's a d10 op run. If we can keep that low over the SE maybe we can pull off a halfway decent stretch starting next week. Ens look pretty warm for the 4th as well. Maybe a NW flow COC stretch? We might be able to have a decent stretch, but I get nervous with the ridge still out west after the first week of May. That trough over the SE may allow for over-the-top Tippy warmth to spill in, but then heights rise in Greenland too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 We might be able to have a decent stretch, but I get nervous with the ridge still out west after the first week of May. That trough over the SE may allow for over-the-top Tippy warmth to spill in, but then heights rise in Greenland too.Yeah we could be on the wrong side of things too. Like you said, that trough/ridge west of the MS is a little west for my liking for this time of year. I think we'll at least be able to pull off some transient warm days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 25, 2015 Author Share Posted April 25, 2015 I mean how cold could it realistically be with a trough in late May? Get us through early May and I think we are finally in the clear.it realistically can be in the 40s and 50s if it all goes sour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 25, 2015 Author Share Posted April 25, 2015 Yeah we could be on the wrong side of things too. Like you said, that trough/ridge west of the MS is a little west for my liking for this time of year. I think we'll at least be able to pull off some transient warm days though.we heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Yeah we could be on the wrong side of things too. Like you said, that trough/ridge west of the MS is a little west for my liking for this time of year. I think we'll at least be able to pull off some transient warm days though. Yeah agree. That's what I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 it realistically can be in the 40s and 50s if it all goes sour Tip's 2005 house of horror We've had some recent hideous days in May too even if they didn't last for as long as those 2005 episodes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Have to watch out for those plumes of heat soaring more north than east into southern Canada. Those can lead to backdoors sometimes. Euro sort of has that. However if it is just more like a sea breeze with a high nearby, then it's likely to be warm in many spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Yeah Scott... as I was digesting the various data sources it was appealing as an over-the-top warm up. No Sonoran, style ... but definitely continental/insolation processed heat. I also agree that if the ridge node parks @ or W 90 lon, there runs BD risk there. The S/W trajectory becomes ESE out of Ontario in that sort of circulation set up, and backsides of them WILL drill unmodeled boundaries down to the MA. Thing is, those kind of events can have shockingly differential temperature before and after BD, and not really show up in 500mb thickness pattern very well do to their shallower nature only effecting the lowest partial thickness... They can literally be no more than 1,300 meters deep. As is, though, the ridge progressive across 4 or 5 days; if so that would lower the odds for that consequence. Sufficed it is to say ... whether we get that type of local scaled off-set, the large scaled circulation is completely different than anything we've seen in quite a long, long while. In fact, I don't recall seeing 3-5 day ridge stint E of 100 W in over a year, actually. That's a trend bucker; inherently questionable, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Euro says get your AC into windows for early May..we sweat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 12z GFS has TIP's blue bomb for next friday .. only about 120-132 hrs out too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 That is a hell of a way to open up May on the GFS..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Tossed. Euro has been killing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Tossed. Euro has been killing it Well we shall see what 12z does. There were some EC members showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 26, 2015 Author Share Posted April 26, 2015 It's a cold rain storm meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 It's a cold rain storm neh Pretty close at ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 6z GFS had it...many 6z GEFS members too. Euro/EPS came west with the low from 12z yest to 00z last night. Like Scott said...wait for the 12z Euro, but I unfortunately think this has legs. I'd rather stay dry and comfortably tiptoe into the warmer pattern, but what can ya do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Pretty close at ORH. Hopefully Will can get 6-10" of paste while the rest of us get C-1" of glop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 26, 2015 Author Share Posted April 26, 2015 Pretty close at ORH.plenty cold aloft, will take some intense overnight rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 It's interesting in that the most reliable operational model types are operating opposite their longer term endemic biases... The Euro tends to over dig and slow systems down in this particular time frame, where as contrasting the GFS is typically the other way with flattening and speeding events along. Yet here we have the GFS the most amped and slowest, and the Euro kicks things along. I wonder if that's related to slackening gradient and shortening wave lengths ...sort of like "sinusoidal" The curve flips... 12z Euro seems more amped, tho - heh. spring being spring I suppose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Euro says no. Barely gets to 35N/70W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Euro says no. Barely gets to 35N/70W. Yeah, it looked at first like it was better but ...pretty much consistent with the 00z miss... Must be spring in New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Happy b'day to me on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Can't remember what spring it was ... but it was one of those over the last 5 years. This sort of is reminding me of that. D1, 50s everywhere D2, 84 @ ALB; 62 @ BOS D3, 94 everywhere... Not as extreme, no, but the 12z Euro continues to advertise a complete and utter paradigm shift away from that which has been producing the following: ..seemingly since January. In fact, I think every month since has had this weird "only cold in eastern Canada and Ayer Mass" affliction... According to NASA ...March was the 3rd warmest March ever, behind 2002. Interestingly, I recall it snowed in May that year. I wonder if there's something to the whole world warming up when we get tucked in with cold off the maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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