Hoosier Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 We have some consensus for a rapidly deepening low pressure, possibly sub 980 mb. This looks to bring a variety of conditions to the region although no particular weather aspect looks extreme at this point. We can keep this a general thread for now to cover all parts of the storm and if one thing starts to look like it will be more of an impact (snow or severe) then we can split off. The Friday night/Saturday mixed precip disco can go here since it's the beginning stages of the bigger event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 That lead s/w is really doing more harm than good at this point, sucking a lot of the moisture away from the phase/rapid deepening of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2014 Author Share Posted November 19, 2014 That lead s/w is really doing more harm than good at this point, sucking a lot of the moisture away from the phase/rapid deepening of the low. Warm sector looks kinda junky. If any severe threat does materialize then it would probably be closer to the OH River. I think if temps/dews could get into the upper 50s or so, it would be enough for a respectable threat given the dynamics in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 12Z Euro looks like it's gonna go big again thru H96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2014 Author Share Posted November 19, 2014 12Z Euro looks like it's gonna go big again thru H96 Yeah, it's in the low 970s at 120 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 108 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 does it end getting sub 970 at all in the GL on the euro? Having issues with updates on my sites for whatever reason...thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 does it end getting sub 970 at all in the GL on the euro? Having issues with updates on my sites for whatever reason...thanks It's stuck on 114 (975mb just to the west of MSN) on my site, but I'll let you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Looks like it's down to 974 at 120 over NE Wisconsin and 973 over the UP at 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 It's stuck on 114 (975mb just to the west of MSN) on my site, but I'll let you know. cool thanks....not really the most important thing in the world....just would be fun to see if we can get it sub 970 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 cool thanks....not really the most important thing in the world....just would be fun to see if we can get it sub 970 Six hour increments/maps, but the lowest one on today's Euro is 971mb overtop Bo's head at 132 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2014 Author Share Posted November 19, 2014 cool thanks....not really the most important thing in the world....just would be fun to see if we can get it sub 970 2 or 3 GFS ensemble members do that. Considering we are dealing with a pronounced negatively tilted system, I wouldn't be surprised if 1) the track creeps west of where most models have it and 2) it deepens on the quicker side of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShtRemusSays Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2014 Author Share Posted November 19, 2014 This could be kind of a drawn out wind event if the general solutions hold as the system is not really in a big hurry to move away and a pretty good pressure gradient hangs back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 it will certainly finish the job stripping what remains of the leaves which is actually quite a bit here in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 While this system isn't bad, I'm looking forward to the 27-29th storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 This storm reminds me of the Octobomb in 2010 (got down to 955mb in MN), I remember tracking that, the last few days it kept getting a better phase and lower pressure / more NW track on the models. Will be interesting to see what this one does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 LOT mentioning possible problems with icing Friday night....then some possible hydro issues sunday with frozen grounds and 1 to 2 inches of liquid QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShtRemusSays Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 LOT mentioning possible problems with icing Friday night....then some possible hydro issues sunday with frozen grounds and 1 to 2 inches of liquid QPF... From LOT for Friday afternoon/evening "SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DEEP WARM LAYER SO WHILE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET AT ONSET...BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 18z GFS about the same as 12z run, maxes out at 973mb in the UP a little bit east of 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 looks like sampling on the main lead vort at 00Z 21NOV ... and for the northern stream wave roughly at 12Z 22NOV ... FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 18Z GFS modeled surface wind gusts...21Z 23NOV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2014 Author Share Posted November 19, 2014 This storm reminds me of the Octobomb in 2010 (got down to 955mb in MN), I remember tracking that, the last few days it kept getting a better phase and lower pressure / more NW track on the models. Will be interesting to see what this one does Was trying to remember what the models had in the days leading up to that. I found the old thread at Easternuswx and it looks like models had it in the mid 960s to low 970s a few days out, and it verified at 955 mb as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Was trying to remember what the models had in the days leading up to that. I found the old thread at Easternuswx and it looks like models had it in the mid 960s to low 970s a few days out, and it verified at 955 mb as you said. Was probably my favorite no snow pure windstorm I ever experienced, was on vacation in the eastern UP when it hit at a casino resort, the squall line along the cold front came thru with 70mph wind gusts and a few thunders, and was blowing tiles off the roof, I still have some roof tiles from that in my room as a storm trophy, was like a mini-hurricane lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 12z EURO ensembles mean for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Obviously it will change and this is more a reservation of the fact the pattern is so volatile but the Euro ensemble control also has a sub 980mb low into northern IL at day 14-15. If this is the pattern we will have this winter with potent systems coming through every week I will take it and bank on my eventual bomb locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 it's looking like the weather will be a slap in the face to start the work week....between crashing temps, gusty winds, and sloppy surfaces from a weekend of rain...at least it's a holiday week to soften the blow a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Was trying to remember what the models had in the days leading up to that. I found the old thread at Easternuswx and it looks like models had it in the mid 960s to low 970s a few days out, and it verified at 955 mb as you said. IIRC the RGEM cranked it down to the mid 950s a few days out and was pretty consistent with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2014 Author Share Posted November 19, 2014 IIRC the RGEM cranked it down to the mid 950s a few days out and was pretty consistent with that. The 12z run on October 25 did. Here's that old thread for anyone who wants to reminisce http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/239844-the-great-midwest-low-of-2010/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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