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Next week's storm, Changes, Snow threats beyond (Part 2)

Rain Wind Pattern change Snow

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#456
PolarVortex

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I'll admit it...I was on the SWFE bandwagon until the month actually started, then I promptly jumped off.


Agreed but it's all mostly irrelevant. None of us are disagreeing that a cold shot is coming, it's just the duration and form. Let's all enjoy the weather, it's the only weather we've got.

#457
Baroclinic Zone

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I think so, too...but Sam tried to tell me otherwise.

I said it yesterday as well. Snowpack is a critical ingredient.

#458
dendrite

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With a low sun angle, the difference isn't as bad, but recall March 2010 when we were busting like 5-6 degrees higher than MOS on NW flow. No snow in Quebec helped with those temps.

Yeah...we had BTV in the WxChallenge with no snow in mid March. I think I finished 2nd overall in the country by knowing enough to go way above MOS. I think there were a handful of days where they were mixing up to H85 even on light wind days. lol

#459
Baroclinic Zone

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Agreed but it's all mostly irrelevant. None of us are disagreeing that a cold shot is coming, it's just the duration and form. Let's all enjoy the weather, it's the only weather we've got.

Yup. No sense in getting overly optimistic until we get within a few days of any event.

#460
40/70 Benchmark

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We're basically changing from a shat show pattern to a marginal, pedestrian pattern.

#461
CT Rain

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We're basically changing from a shat show pattern to a marginal, pedastrian pattern.


Pretty much

#462
weathafella

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We're basically changing from a shat show pattern to a marginal, pedestrian pattern.


It's a huge difference. From historic non winter basically nationwide to relatively normal winter.

#463
PolarVortex

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It's a huge difference. From historic non winter basically nationwide to relatively normal winter.


Truth will be in the snowfall OTG nationawide in a few weeks.

#464
OKpowdah

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Especially with a low sun angle still, I don't think snow cover is going to be the huge factor that busts up our winter. It's not going to be "Oh well we would've gotten 30 inches to end January, but darn, there wasn't any snow cover in the Midwest so instead we're sunny and in the 50's."

There is snow cover immediately to our north and northwest, so that intrusions of arctic air, should the pattern allow, will not be significantly modified.

#465
weathafella

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Truth will be in the snowfall OTG nationawide in a few weeks.


Good post. If the coming pattern as advertised delivers, there should be substantial cover 40N and northward demo the Rockies eastward.

#466
ravensrule

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How do you know the Broncos will not win?, do you not believe in jesus. Shame on you.

They'll need his help being a 9 point home dog !


I guess you became alot more religious tonight.

P.S. You guys are lucky sob's drawing them, it is like a bye all the way to the championship game.

#467
HoarfrostHubb

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whats better besides euro? Nogaps? Nam? Ggem? Ukmet? Nope

Just channeling Blizz. I like the GFS to a point

#468
ORH_wxman

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One thing I started noticing on guidance today is that for the Thursday storm, there could be the threat of some marginal icing in the interior. Too far out to say much in the way of detail.

#469
dryslot

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I guess you became alot more religious tonight.

P.S. You guys are lucky sob's drawing them, it is like a bye all the way to the championship game.



We take them as they come, Home cooking and all

#470
CoastalWx

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Especially with a low sun angle still, I don't think snow cover is going to be the huge factor that busts up our winter. It's not going to be "Oh well we would've gotten 30 inches to end January, but darn, there wasn't any snow cover in the Midwest so instead we're sunny and in the 50's."

There is snow cover immediately to our north and northwest, so that intrusions of arctic air, should the pattern allow, will not be significantly modified.



I don't think people are thinking that..just in marginal cases like icing or borderline 32F snows.

#471
Ottawa Blizzard

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Do people here think this will rank up with the January 2007 pattern flip?

#472
40/70 Benchmark

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I don't think people are thinking that..just in marginal cases like icing or borderline 32F snows.

Exactly....he keeps sensationalizing the other perspective in order to garner more support for his stance.

It matters.....no one said it's the difference between January 2011 and January 2012.

#473
Ginxy

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One thing I started noticing on guidance today is that for the Thursday storm, there could be the threat of some marginal icing in the interior. Too far out to say much in the way of detail.

Perhaps the most positive sign of this winter. Many had totally written Thursday off early as nothing but a rain storm for all. Although still a rain storm for most the guidance continues to come in colder. It was pointed out on Thursday that the Euro ENS seemed to indicate that colder scenarios were on the table.

#474
ORH_wxman

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I don't think people are thinking that..just in marginal cases like icing or borderline 32F snows.



There's also only snow to our due north or NNW. There is no snow cover over most of the Great Lakes region so any air advecting in from the W is going over bare ground. It helps modify our airmasses before they get here, and thus sets us up for a little less wiggle room for the next event.

Its never the primary driver, but it can begin to feedback on itself as a secondary variable.

#475
40/70 Benchmark

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Perhaps the most positive sign of this winter. Many had totally written Thursday off early as nothing but a rain storm for all. Although still a rain storm for most the guidance continues to come in colder. It was pointed out on Thursday that the Euro ENS seemed to point out that colder scenarios were on the table.

We've seen events trend colder, then back pedal at the last moment...most notably the Dec 23 event.

#476
CoastalWx

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There's also only snow to our due north or NNW. There is no snow cover over most of the Great Lakes region so any air advecting in from the W is going over bare ground. It helps modify our airmasses before they get here, and thus sets us up for a little less wiggle room for the next event.

Its never the primary driver, but it can begin to feedback on itself as a secondary variable.



Yeah I don't know why Sam is trying to argue. Garbage airmass advecting over brown ground, or garbage airmass advecting over snow cover. That's a difference between 31F and 33-34F imo.

#477
OKpowdah

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Exactly....he keeps sensationalizing the other perspective in order to garner more support for his stance.

It matters.....no one said it's the difference between January 2011 and January 2012.


WTF? Sensationalizing in order to garner support? Yeah that's definitely how I get my kicks, trying to "garner support" on an online forum.

I don't think people are thinking that..just in marginal cases like icing or borderline 32F snows.


The reason I'm arguing is because that's definitely not our first concern. Sure it can feedback on itself as Will suggests, but plant a mega low over Alaska and over Greenland, the reason we're not getting snow here isn't because of insufficient snow cover to our west.

#478
weathafella

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The temperatures we've experienced this winter are typical for DC. The snowfall is typical for Miami.

#479
HoarfrostHubb

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Tim Kelly (NECN) suggesting the event scooting by Monday night will develop offshore and lead to some blocking for Weds/Thursdays mess

Also suggesting some snow possible for the Pats game...

#480
HoarfrostHubb

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The temperatures we've experienced this winter are typical for DC. The snowfall is typical for Miami.

I guess I am only a little behind average due to the October Beast snowfallwise. Ahead of last year, actually.

That said, probably nothing to write home about for quite a while

#481
weathafella

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Giants packers game should be quite cold in Green Bay.

#482
dendrite

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One thing I started noticing on guidance today is that for the Thursday storm, there could be the threat of some marginal icing in the interior. Too far out to say much in the way of detail.

Yeah...I thought there was potential for icing over parts of the elevated interior up here a couple days ago so long as we can keep the sfc low south of us. Now that it looks a little interesting we'll probably see the BL get torched in future runs.

#483
HoarfrostHubb

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Giants packers game should be quite cold in Green Bay.

Posted Image

#484
HoarfrostHubb

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Yeah...I thought there was potential for icing over parts of the elevated interior up here a couple days ago so long as we can keep the sfc low south of us. Now that it looks a little interesting we'll probably see the BL get torched in future runs.

Some convective stuff Thursday?

The system is pretty potent down south

#485
OKpowdah

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s/w swinging through tomorrow night has slightly more neutral to negative tilt 00z vs 18z NAM ...so the clouds might be a little thicker in CT Monday Night

#486
dendrite

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Giants packers game should be quite cold in Green Bay.

Euro op has 30s...ens 20s. Nothing too out of the ordinary. The GFS would be another story.

#487
HoarfrostHubb

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s/w swinging through tomorrow night has slightly more neutral to negative tilt 00z vs 18z NAM ...so the clouds might be a little thicker in CT Monday Night

Blizz's legit snow threat #1

Did not realize CT extended as far into the ocean

#488
Organizing Low

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snowpack defintiely has an effect

seen it as a living breating experiment, call it a randomized controlled experiment the last 2.5 weeks.

the result was classic snowpack effect....textbook.

#489
mahk_webstah

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Perhaps the most positive sign of this winter. Many had totally written Thursday off early as nothing but a rain storm for all. Although still a rain storm for most the guidance continues to come in colder. It was pointed out on Thursday that the Euro ENS seemed to indicate that colder scenarios were on the table.

This. It hicupped a bit overnight and the morning but we got these clues 2 days ago and now they have come back.

This is a part of the shift in pattern. But the most obvious sign of a pattern change is Will's increasingly frequent posting. That is a serious teleconnection.

#490
scoob40

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I guess you became alot more religious tonight.

P.S. You guys are lucky sob's drawing them, it is like a bye all the way to the championship game.


Don't think that you chaps are particularly worried about TJ Yates though.




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