tcutter Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yep, not a good solution verbatim. I was just looking at the B&W maps and thought it could be better because it has a high not far off Maine. so my biggest question would be.........at what point are we "locked in" on the location of that high........tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night or mon morning???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yep, not a good solution verbatim. I was just looking at the B&W maps and thought it could be better because it has a high not far off Maine. The dashed black line on the precip maps of the ggem (bottom right panel) is an indicator of the snow/rain line. Not pretty for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 so my biggest question would be.........at what point are we "locked in" on the location of that high........tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night or mon morning???? The way the models have been, I'd say at least tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The dashed black line on the precip maps of the ggem (bottom right panel) is an indicator of the snow/rain line. Not pretty for many. Wow, over 2" of rain into NYC. Could be some flooding issues if correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 So looks like OP GFS, GFS ens, and UKMET hold out hope, while the GGEM and Euro would be rainy. If the Euro shifts west today, that wouldn't be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 So looks like OP GFS, GFS ens, and UKMET hold out hope, while the GGEM and Euro would be rainy. If the Euro shifts west today, that wouldn't be a good sign. The Ukie shifted west but nothing like the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The NAO isn't even strong. It's negative right now going neutral. AO is going neutral and the PNA is positive with the MJO going into Phase 8. None of these suggest an inland bomb. Now, if the NAO and AO was really positive, then I would consider an inland runner. I know the NAO is east based but we have seen many storms in the past with an east based NAO. I think this storm is either going a coastal hugger or a coastal storm just offshore. Another thing is that the GFS and the ensembles have a nother high coming down, just in time for the storm. Another interesting thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The NAO isn't even strong. It's negative right now going neutral. AO is going neutral and the PNA is positive with the MJO going into Phase 8. None of these suggest an inland bomb. Now, if the NAO and AO was really positive, then I would consider an inland runner. I know the NAO is east based but we have seen many storms in the past with an east based NAO. I think this storm is either going a coastal hugger or a coastal storm just offshore. Another thing is that the GFS and the ensembles have a nother high coming down, just in time for the storm. Another interesting thing. Yea ant, that high could prove to be a key difference maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 some notes about the 12z GFS ensembles at HR 84 all of the Surface Low on the Spag charts are faster (some much faster and all are NE of GFS OP at HR 90 again all the members are faster and further NE most centered around eastern NC at 96 again all are North or Northeast, spread widens here a fair amount of members near the Delmarva, another set further NE nearer the BM at 102 things get a little out of hand again all are faster most due north of OP valid same time, almost all centered just off shore NJ or towards coastal NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks juicy in NC. Anyone got any reports? You realize that is not part of this storm that we are talking about affecting our region Tues-Thurs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The Ukie shifted west but nothing like the GGEM. can you post an image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GEM is where the NAM was headed. Heavy snow for Appalachians . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow, over 2" of rain into NYC. Could be some flooding issues if correct. GGEM is some wet snow changing to a deluge for the whole area. QPF in the 1.5 - 3" range. Havent seen rain like that in a long long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Though it has been said hundreds of times in the last day, people don't seem to want to believe that a retreating high brings e and se winds and turns the coastal plain to mix and then rain. Has been happening my whole life. The interior can do well, but not the coastal plain. Amen, that's east coast reality, track means nothing without blocking to keep the cold air in place. No amount of CAD or transient arctic air is gonna stop those screaming E SE winds from raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 some notes about the 12z GFS ensembles at HR 84 all of the Surface Low on the Spag charts are faster (some much faster and all are NE of GFS OP at HR 90 again all the members are faster and further NE most centered around eastern NC at 96 again all are North or Northeast, spread widens here a fair amount of members near the Delmarva, another set further NE nearer the BM at 102 things get a little out of hand again all are faster most due north of OP valid same time, almost all centered just off shore NJ or towards coastal NE saw that too. gfs op was too fast, now it may be too slow. I still see the gefs as a good compromise for speed. The ggem is so slow and so amped its an outlier the other way. The ukmet now has a GA to BM track and it looks pretty cold but no way to know till better maps are out. Datas is still in no mans land and until the northern stream gets into the us (we have seen that when it enters canada that still isn't good enough) the timing will come into much better agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 individual gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Can a moderator or someone with mod priveleges pleqase split out the nyc area from philly/pa area?. NYC/Philly area is too big an area for all posters to co-exist. We all want different things and this back and forth i need snow youve had enough is tiring and makes the thread impossible to read and get any good information out of. I respectfully disagree....I think we get better analysis in one forum without splitting up the talent pool...we just need people talking less about themselves and more so about the bigger picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You realize that is not part of this storm that we are talking about affecting our region Tues-Thurs... o really i had no idea, thought it was coming straight up figured some snow reports would cheer everyone up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 do the winds look to be a big factor at the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 individual gefs. 3 of them show a coastal hugger and the rest are either OTS or a coastal hit. Either the Euro or the GFS is going to burn with this storm. The GGEM is an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12Z UKM, fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hahahahahahahahahahaahha rob g civilized? that site is the weenie capital of the world! is he still begging for money since he can't find a job? i totally disagree with you but hey to each his own i guess ps-- here is the radio show link if anyone wants to call in tonight (except thunder road of course)................. http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/prometweatherblogs/12/2/4171/LIVE-RADIO-SHOW-TONIGHT-6:30-7:00PM...CALL-IN-TO-ASK-ME-&-THE-METS-QUESTIONS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 while its just probably gefs sillyness, some of these solutions show that the slower track actually allows another HP to build in. There are so many players on this field this may be the most complicated setup we have had yet and that is saying a lot because this winter has shown some real doozies. Nothing can be discounted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 3 of them show a coastal hugger and the rest are either OTS or a coastal hit. Either the Euro or the GFS is going to burn with this storm. The GGEM is an outlier. You can't call anything an outlier until all of the 12z data is in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12Z UKM, fwiw thank you for posting that. strong storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12Z UKM, fwiw Looks like the 0z Euro, probably a lot of rain for I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I know biases get too much airtime here, but let's take a step back for a minute: We need a storm that is progressive and somewhat less organized. The GFS has a storm is progressive and somewhat less organized (for the majority of runs anyway, today's 12z was a fairly amp'ed sol'n). The GFS has a progressive and disorganization bias at this time frame. The GGEM is over-phased and, therefore, an inland runner. The GGEM has a bias to over-phase storms (see 1/12 and 1/21). So somewhere in the middle is probably the best track, a la all of the ensemble guidance. But we still have a H retreating too fast. Even the 12z GFS comes very close to BL issues, even with an OTS track. It's not looking too god for the coastal plain imo. Inland is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 thank you for posting that. strong storm. Looks like the 0z Euro, probably a lot of rain for I-95 Front end dump and over to a cold rain.....verbatim for I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The players wont be on the field so to speak until Monday AM.. Everyone should not go crazy with each model run. Like PPL did yesterday and today at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Front end dump and over to a cold rain.....verbatim I would take that in a heartbeat. GGEM is the only model with an inland bomb. Lets see what the Euro serves up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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