griteater Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro/Euro Ens/UKMet runs infinitely more important than the GFS at this timerange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well from the NE thread there was new flight data ingested on the 12z runs but doesn't explain the huge difference between the NAM and the GFS at 84. Just being the NAM at 84 explains the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Remember the trend this far out! Everything! lows, pieces of energy all tend to be prog. to go east only to be brought back west as the storm approaches. If we had of been in the sweet spot every run I would be worried about a APPS runner, as the finial outcome. But, because of the trend that we all know I feel even more confident. There will be some jumping off the cliff folks this weekend, but keep a sense of calm knowing the seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This model flipping is driving me crazy. Looks like NEGA (Athens) may be in for a mix of everything as of now. More than likely, we are looking at a cold rain for the main portion of the precip. even Athens would be dammed in hard. If there is precip, it would be frozen or freezing in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I for one am not too worried about the GFS because this is about the time it usually is too progressive and east with things. It will usually trend back within 84 hours or less. We may not get the bomb it showed earlier but I would think we will see a much larger system in the SE than it showed at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think with the low running up the coast there will be more precip with this storm ( currently shown on the 12 GFS). Even now it shows maybe 1-2 inches for central NC. I think this is a great setup with many more changes; hopefully for the good of all. It could be good with a few tweaks, but quite often in these situations, western NC gets some precip and far eastern NC gets some precip with the central part of the state left high and dry. Not saying it will happen here, but if things really do play out this way, I wouldn't assume that the models are significantly underdoing the QPF here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 People are reading too much into the details and the details are way too far away. I'm getting snow (in my mind) unless 2 days away the models say I'm not, and even then I'm not so sure, I watched the models flip all over the place last time too. I watched FFC go weaker and weaker with the last storm and you see what we got. I just can't place much faith in any model detail right now, but once they start to nail down the track a little more, then we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm not seeing a Miller B. I'm seeing a miller A that seems to merge with another LP in the NE that is coming through the midwest, kind of like our last storm around here, you know, barely any snow and a little zr.. A Miller "S"*. * S for screw,,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Dang, already talking getting screwed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thanks for the info. You are the met, not me. even Athens would be dammed in hard. If there is precip, it would be frozen or freezing in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looking at 12z UK 72 hour map -- looks pretty different in terms of vorticity to the 12z GFS (although it's hard for me to compare NCEP to Plymouth maps) . Big s/w over Col/Utah on UKMET that isn't there on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 No reason to worry about the GFS solution so long as the euro holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It's pretty crazy to see so much cliff diving already after 1 model run of the GFS and we are still 4+ days away. People need to calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM looks more amplified with the incoming s/w at 60 hrs... definitely further west than the 12z GFS. 1038mb HP over SE Can at 72hrs. Excellent setup there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 folks...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM at 84.. wow.. gotta post this one. Love this set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM is throwing the upper low down into Oklahoma. Strong CAD, but warm air pouring in aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM looks more amplified with the incoming s/w at 60 hrs... definitely further west than the 12z GFS. 1038mb HP over SE Can at 72hrs. Excellent setup there. I think there may be come confusion on the board here about the s/w coming in further west. I saw some posts dealing with the 84hr NAM earlier. The s/w dropping in further west is a good thing I believe because it allows the system to drop further south and dig. I don't believe it means that our Low pressure/Storm will be on a further west/inland track. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think there may be come confusion on the board here about the s/w coming in further west. I saw some posts dealing with the 84hr NAM earlier. The s/w dropping in further west is a good thing I believe because it allows the system to drop further south and dig. I don't believe it means that our Low pressure/Storm will be on a further west/inland track. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. Prior to today it was too far west and cutting off energy over the SW. 12z GFS was too far east and progressive with the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM at 108 looks really similar to the March 09 storm.. similar to 0z GFS, too, but more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM at 108 looks really similar to the March 09 storm LOL wow thats warm, 850 line running west of the apps to north of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM at 108 looks really similar to the March 09 storm.. similar to 0z GFS, too, but more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think there may be come confusion on the board here about the s/w coming in further west. I saw some posts dealing with the 84hr NAM earlier. The s/w dropping in further west is a good thing I believe because it allows the system to drop further south and dig. I don't believe it means that our Low pressure/Storm will be on a further west/inland track. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. Farther west = way more moisture, but way more warm air moving in aloft. Snow line moves roughly from NC/SC border to NC/VA border as precip moves in. GGEM is a big time ice storm whoever stays below freezing east of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM is actually a good trend to me. You've got the GFS taking the upper low into the Ohio Valley and the GGEM taking it to Oklahoma. Hopefully, the Euro splits the difference. It has never shown the upper low trying to dig farther to the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 LOL... I'll be as happy as that once I'm buried in it. If the Euro pulls this off in the next hour, I'll be model addicted for the next 4 days. This is good that the 0z GFS has support now. Curious to see the GGEM ensembles now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM at 108 looks really similar to the March 09 storm.. similar to 0z GFS, too, but more west. This is a good point. March '09 was a huge rain producer with snow at the end due to the strong upper low moving in. This time, the GGEM would be more ice to snow for whoever got the right upper low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I would not too much where the 850 freezing line is. There will be massive height falls on the northwest side with what the ggem is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12Z GFS ensemble mean don't agree with op run. More moisture than the op as well as the 0Z GFS ensemble mean. The mean has a Miller A track along the coast. hr 96 hr 108 Hr 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z Canadian @ 120 HR. Looks like a big hit for N. AL. http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_120.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z Canadian @ 120 HR. http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_120.jpg very similar to it's previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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