bmc10 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 this most be from the weenie board I really value Jeff's opinion, he was an excellent NYC meteorologist. It sucks not having him around anymore. This is why I am curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Ear popping pressures have been give on today's CRAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Glad to see that it's corrected from the earlier over amplification. CRAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I really value Jeff's opinion, he was an excellent NYC meteorologist. It sucks not having him around anymore. This is why I am curious Agreed. I sent you a PM bro....I don't think I can post the link to the other site here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Euro still doesn't do much. 1-3" event for everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Tombo had initialization errors today...via NCEP the solution has been discarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like .1-.25 over the whole area (NYC and PHL), except a little sliver of .25-.5 across C NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I like Jeff too he knows his stuff albeit he really has a snow model bias, Im just telling it came from that "other" board known for weenism He was spot on with the last storm saying Most Models would Resemble the Nam in the End.. I remember Specifically one thing that stood out was when GFS was taking last storm way of coast he said it wouldn't happen and would be alot closer to the coast which of course he was right as I received 10 inches of Snow in 8 hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Per e-wall at 48 Euro still hanging back southern stream - no phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Has the CRAS ever score a "coup"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Euro still doesn't do much. 1-3" event for everybody. The Euro has probably been right all along. Although I must say, this past storm was modeled to not give very much precip. at about this time frame when we were tracking it. I remember arguing with some folks that we'd have much more than just 0.5" of QPF like what was modeled. It seems to be the trend this winter that as we get closer to the event, the storm gets a bit juicier. I can definitely see the models showing a more wet solution as we get closer, as long as the storm is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Euro still doesn't do much. 1-3" event for everybody. That is the alarming part how a Model like the Cras can show a bomb and Euro a Pedestrian Event 3 days from the Event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The Euro hasn't really budged from a weak system, and a weak phase. Every model except the NAM is showing a general 1-3 or 2-4" as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The funny thing is, SG, all the TV mets (even the good ones like Lee Goldberg and Nick Gregory) are talking about a ho-hum clipper dropping 1-3 or 2-4 inches of snow that's out of here by Friday morning. No one is even mentioning a coastal possibility. They are also saying all snow as if it's set in stone, with temps in the mid 20s for highs. My guess: They saw the EC has little and the GEM has a bomb, considered their reliability and went with the model they know is generally better. That may or may not be correct, but its a reasonable explanation for what they are forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowbo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 am19psu - thanks for not splitting the subforum or model/threat threads. If you don't mind, I'll throw in a couple of comments from my soapbox: these model/threat threads would be far less cluttered if 75% of the non-pros simply refrained from posting in them or at least greatly reduced how often they post in them. At the risk of sounding arrogant, I know that I know more about meteorology than most non-pros (or at least about the fundamentals, like momentum, heat and mass transfer, physical chemistry, numerical modeling and thermodynamics - a PhD in chem eng'g does that for you), yet I rarely post in the model/threat threads, since I know the pros (and some selected non-pros) still know a lot more than I do and I'd rather not clutter up these threads. If more non-pros would simply read more and post less in these threads, it would likely make the threads much better and easier to read. In addition, there are tons of people in NJ, like me, who I'm sure really appreciate seeing the whole region discussed, as it's geographically small and insights from one area often apply to the other, plus it avoids dilution of the precious pro met talent. As an aside, I don't mind the observation threads being separated, as I'm rarely looking for pro insight in those - it's much more about what's going on, which anyone is qualified to post about. Off the soapbox. Well put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 That is the alarming part how a Model like the Cras can show a bomb and Euro a Pedestrian Event 3 days from the Event.. not really alarming....CRAS is garbage, no reason to use it IMO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Not sure if I can post this but this is from another site from Jeff Berardelli, he says the NAM is most likely correct. Forecast still on track guys. The NAM is likely correct with its track, setup, etc... I am not a big fan of the NAM past 48 hours but in this case I think it is correct. Here's the deal... Typically with a 500mb set up like we are gonna have the end of this week you'd get a storm that develops too late and too far west and north. So you'd see a quick hit of snow to rain... a few hour storm and you get dry/warm sectored. But in this case there's a difference. Because the southern end of the trough has some vorticity/energy when it is in the Plains/MS Valley it initiates Surface low pressure down there. The energy is fairly equally distributed in the trough at that point and so you would argue for development of the suface low where the moisture is and also where you can the best diffluence aloft. That would be the lower MS valley give/take. Now eventually the southern end of the trough weakens and the energy there just dissapates. The trough goes negative and the energy up north intensifies over PA then everything lifts NEward. That would normally be bad for you guys as explained above. But in this case the initail Sfc system is enough to get you to the coast and so the redevelopment occurs south of NYC along (not off) the MidAtl coast. So now you've confined warming to the immediate coast and you ensure enough moisture for atleast moderate snow from PHL northward. Of course interior New Eng sees the most. In this situation it is likely the coast will see some change over to rain. But from NYC north this will likely be all snow & maybe a little sleet. One thing... quick hiiter. In an out in 8 hours or so. No blocking and NYC will be on the southern end of the Mod snow as the storm develops a bit too late for major snow. I hope I explained that so you get the picture. The balance here is key. Initail southern surface low counteracts the effects of the deepening 500mb trough up north. Gets you just far enough in time so that when the 500mb low up north decides to take over the storm is just too far south to go west of NYC and is also just far enough south for moderate precip in the NYC area. Bigger hit New Eng Jeff Berardelli Jeff B is amazing- i miss him around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Thne other models don't hang back the SW energy like the Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Come on guys, we all know about the CRAS. Lets try to keep the quality of discussion of this thread high while using the banter thread for messing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Has the CRAS ever score a "coup"? It did on one of the events last year but I forgot which one it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The Euro hasn't really budged from a weak system, and a weak phase. Every model except the NAM is showing a general 1-3 or 2-4" as of now. I think I had post Deleted anyway wrote the JMA and GGEm show a 3-6 type of Event so nothing set in stone yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I might be mistaken, but didn't it catch the Blizzard on December 26? It did on one of the events last year but I forgot which one it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Thne other models don't hang back the SW energy like the Euro does. Hanging the energy in the SW back too much is a known Euro bias, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Hanging the energy in the SW back too much is a known Euro bias, right? In the medium range, that at least used to be one of it's biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Hanging the energy in the SW back too much is a known Euro bias, right? dtk posted in the thread yesterday that the bias only applies to cutoff lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The NAM and Euro differ so odds are one is wrong...I'd go with the NAM being wrong simply because all other models are more like the Euro but be wary that bombs have tried to develop at every chance this winter...even this event was stronger than expected 3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The NAM and Euro differ so odds are one is wrong Odds are? I don't think both solutions can play out for the same storm, so I would say one is definitely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Euro brewing something at hr. 156 according to Midlo in the MA forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Euro brewing something at hr. 156 according to Midlo in the MA forum. GFS had this as well. GFS was a just miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 ot, but big storm incoming at 168 euro..25th of JAN... maybe later this week we can start a thread for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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