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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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Exactly, a more westward track would imply many different things in terms of development....you simply can't translate everything associated (temps/qpf) with the storm linearly westward.

But without a nice surface high I'd expect the westward track to lead to a warmer solution with that high sitting off the coast. Of course it the 500h low were to almost track over us but just tot he south, then it would be colder and we'd get into the deformation zone.

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This should be added to a list of "tips for weenies" because I have a feeling many do just that, shift a storm west/east and impose the exact same profile to the storm without realizing that the move west or east would be in response to a different development process to the storm and the dynamics would be different.

the location of the high is key for here though...this isnt new england. yes a stronger storm closer to the coast could draw in more cold air...but there has to be a source. for inland locations at elevation, not as much of an issue.

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As others have said, the mechanism that would bring this closer to the coast would probably change the temp profiles. It might look warm because we have no precip. Look what happens in SNE. It is warm but then temps crash as the heavy precip rolls in. The models can pick that up to an extent.

Gotcha....very good. Thanks

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Touble in the sense of feeling confident in making a forecast based on the data available. We are only 3-4 days away now.

I totally understand how difficult it is for ANY model to nail a complicated system. I was directing my post to psuhoffman because ufortunately for him, he will be responsible for any bad outcome of this strom. ;)

impossible

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It may be....but I've seen some long term folks that add a lot of "throw it out" mentality posts that says otherwise

Lots of people do it [it seems silly to me to just ignore/throw out actual guidance, as even outlier forecasts can be used to formulate the extreme edge of possibilities and help understand what can go wrong with a forecast...but maybe that's just me]. B_I started a really good thread a few weeks ago "why are models so good" that get into some of this....it's a good read.

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Not a met, but to my understanding the real problem is that we don't have strong blocking to keep the high pressure that will be across New England on Sunday/Monday in place for the storm.

You probably won't have many problems in Pittsburgh, and the track would have to come very far inland for you to be worried about temps.

The bolded phrase is completely unnecessary in any post. Met status will be evident either from 1. tag color or 2. reading the key thought in the post.

Also, Pitt is Mid Atlantic?

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But without a nice surface high I'd expect the westward track to lead to a warmer solution with that high sitting off the coast. Of course it the 500h low were to almost track over us but just tot he south, then it would be colder and we'd get into the deformation zone.

Wes, I agree...and I wasn't even trying to postulate whether or not there would be temperature issues....I was simply making a point to not pick up the storm and move the whole thing west, and infer temperature issues that way.

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This should be added to a list of "tips for weenies" because I have a feeling many do just that, shift a storm west/east and impose the exact same profile to the storm without realizing that the move west or east would be in response to a different development process to the storm and the dynamics would be different.

I sincerely just learned something. You have to remember that last year it was pretty much "we're gonna get crushed", and it was pretty simple for the 3 big storms. This La Nina year hasn't just made it tougher for experts to forecast and give analysis, but much worse for non experts! :)

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But without a nice surface high I'd expect the westward track to lead to a warmer solution with that high sitting off the coast. Of course it the 500h low were to almost track over us but just tot he south, then it would be colder and we'd get into the deformation zone.

That is what we really are holding out for here in my opinion. Its going to be hard to get a front end dump the way things look now with the warmth surging up the coast ahead of the system. Some runs before had a front running piece racing ahead with a good front end snow, that is now more disconnected and might bring some flurries ahead of the system but by the time the real storm arrives the thermal profile looks warm on most guidance now.

However, the h5 track still looks good on most of the guidance for just what you said there. I think our hope is once the low starts to really deepen and the ccb gets going if that h5 track remains across central VA we will get into the deform band and could go over to snow. In that way, a west track from the GFS would be colder because of the more wound up solution and a better CCB on the west side of the low. The track would still have to be east of DC though, too far west and it wouldnt matter for us.

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Lots of people do it [it seems silly to me to just ignore/throw out actual guidance, as even outlier forecasts can be used to formulate the extreme edge of possibilities and help understand what can go wrong with a forecast...but maybe that's just me]. B_I started a really good thread a few weeks ago "why are models so good" that get into some of this....it's a good read.

Gotcha...i will

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the location of the high is key for here though...this isnt new england. yes a stronger storm closer to the coast could draw in more cold air...but there has to be a source. for inland locations at elevation, not as much of an issue.

you mean me :guitar:

but really for your location yea, your pessimism for where you are is well founded. I honestly doubt you have much of a chance on the eastern shore with this, its not the right setup. Its also not the right setup if you want all snow and 20" in DC either. But I don't think anyone here is holding out for that. If we would be happy with 3-6" in the city and maybe more west from a nice back end dump as the H5 goes bye there is plenty of chance for that. FOr where you are, this is a real long shot but you shouldnt impose IMOBY logic on this area.

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you mean me :guitar:

but really for your location yea, your pessimism for where you are is well founded. I honestly doubt you have much of a chance on the eastern shore with this, its not the right setup. Its also not the right setup if you want all snow and 20" in DC either. But I don't think anyone here is holding out for that. If we would be happy with 3-6" in the city and maybe more west from a nice back end dump as the H5 goes bye there is plenty of chance for that. FOr where you are, this is a real long shot but you shouldnt impose IMOBY logic on this area.

:lol:

I can already see you starting to open the backdoor to make your escape from this busted storm JB-style.

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you mean me :guitar:

but really for your location yea, your pessimism for where you are is well founded. I honestly doubt you have much of a chance on the eastern shore with this, its not the right setup. Its also not the right setup if you want all snow and 20" in DC either. But I don't think anyone here is holding out for that. If we would be happy with 3-6" in the city and maybe more west from a nice back end dump as the H5 goes bye there is plenty of chance for that. FOr where you are, this is a real long shot but you shouldnt impose IMOBY logic on this area.

I'm gonna assume the same applies top my area?

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But without a nice surface high I'd expect the westward track to lead to a warmer solution with that high sitting off the coast. Of course it the 500h low were to almost track over us but just tot he south, then it would be colder and we'd get into the deformation zone.

That was kinda my point. But I totally understand now there's more to it then just a E/W shift. Seems this could really be a situation where someone forecasted for heavy rain could be sitting in traffic in some heavy snow, and vice verse. Interesting

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Wes, I agree...and I wasn't even trying to postulate whether or not there would be temperature issues....I was simply making a point to not pick up the storm and move the whole thing west, and infer temperature issues that way.

It's certainly an interesting forecast to try to say something halfway intellegent about. I'm surprised that the GFS is taking the low so far east given that the blocking to the north doesn't look that strong. The GFS certainly is on the east side of possible solutions and the canadian is probably on the left. That leaves a big space in between. The safest call would probably be a forecast for a chance of rain or snow or something pretty darn generic. It will be interesting to see what the gfs ensembles do.

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(in my eastern shore southern accent) yall can say what you want about the blocking being a major reason for the screw hole this winter, but there are more ways to get screwed without it. now out into the fresh arctic chill for a run. we need this to be a sunday-monday event and we would be in business.

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It's certainly an interesting forecast to try to say something halfway intellegent about. I'm surprised that the GFS is taking the low so far east given that the blocking to the north doesn't look that strong. The GFS certainly is on the east side of possible solutions and the canadian is probably on the left. That leaves a big space in between. The safest call would probably be a forecast for a chance of rain or snow or something pretty darn generic. It will be interesting to see what the gfs ensembles do.

Oh I'm certainly glad I'm not a forecaster...I'm just [secretly] hoping that this storm gives me something [forecast bust] to add to my database of recent cases for my PhD research.

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:lol:

I can already see you starting to open the backdoor to make your escape from this busted storm JB-style.

how can I bust before I make an actual prediction? This is still 84 hours away, people need to relax a little. I said 6 days ago that this week would be a better chance at a real snow in DC because the pattern indicated the next trough would dig deeper then the previous few have and the h5 vort would probably pass south of DC for a change. This would give us a legitimate shot. That is all still true. I also said from the get go I thought temps would be our biggest problem given the lack of blocking. Also still true. The track of the H5 puts us still in the game, and anyone throwing out the chance at snow with that kind of h5 energy passing right through VA is taking a risk. If the H5 somehow shifts 300 miles north and goes through PA I will gladly admit I was flat wrong.

The problem with JB is not that he is wrong too much from 5 days out, its that he makes predictions that are just unreasonable and should not be made from those lead times. There is no way he should give specifics like he does on storms that far out. Giving rain/snow line and where the axis of best snow will be from a week away is crazy. Of course he is going to bust all the time doing that, anyone would. He should just stick to making general comments about the pattern and what potential exists for storms from that range. He digs his own grave by trying to be the first to give a forecast and then often busts because its impossible at that range to do so.

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