PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Moments like this really put into perspective the mini-break down on the Eastern Board on the evening of Feb. 3, Thursday, when either the NAM or GFS had a mini hiccup and shifted the band of 2' + plus precip south from directly over DC to somewhere near Fredericksburg and everyone went crazy for a few minutes thinking their snowfall totals may be 15 inches instead of 30. I still remember VortMax spazzing out because he only got 1.75" of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Did that GGEM low come up from the Gulf? yes....no way it would give us that much precip for a Miller B Proof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM. BOOM! is it me or did it trend a bit east from 12 z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM. BOOM! Interesting...though a little hard to tell exactly where the freezing line cuts through and exactly where the low is centered with all the other stuff on there. But it does look a little east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I was wrong, GGEM actually looks good and colder than 12Z, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Small track changes don't matter. What does matter is if the northern stream is dominant, which doesn't look to be the case on the GGEM. your best post in a while, you were having a mini melt down for a while after the GFS. Understandable though, but I am in more of a sit back and let this unfold mode right now. If we go down in flames again, oh well...we had a one in 3 lifetimes winter last year I can live through a crap one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 is it me or did it trend a bit east from 12 z? Maybe 10-20 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yes....no way it would give us that much precip for a Miller B geez JI, don't get too cocky over the GEM verbatim, it is mainly rain for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM is prettty much a perfect track for the NW Burbs of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 geez JI, don't get too cocky over the GEM verbatim, it is mainly rain for us i really think you need a break from the board. Or a 5 post limit. Is this what old age does to someone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 your best post in a while, you were having a mini melt down for a while after the GFS. Understandable though, but I am in more of a sit back and let this unfold mode right now. If we go down in flames again, oh well...we had a one in 3 lifetimes winter last year I can live through a crap one. The GFS spooked me bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 is it me or did it trend a bit east from 12 z? It's much faster and the low developes further north. After that the track is close to 12z and it still changes everyone to rain, however it has a warm bias at the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Did that GGEM low come up from the Gulf? YES relax it digs the trough to china just like the last few runs, the NAM and the Euro and just about everything else except the GFS. I am well aware of the GFS run lately and that going against it is risky, but its also risky to go with one run of one model without its own ensemble support versus every other objective guidance we have. Lets let this play out before deciding we know the outcome. (this is not directed at anyone specifically) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM looks bully to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Moments like this really put into perspective the mini-break down on the Eastern Board on the evening of Feb. 3, Thursday, when either the NAM or GFS had a mini hiccup and shifted the band of 2' + plus precip south from directly over DC to somewhere near Fredericksburg and everyone went crazy for a few minutes thinking their snowfall totals may be 15 inches instead of 30. I remember stormtracker mocking me on the radio show for falsely thinking a model run only had 1" QPF, when it was only though a certain hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 geez JI, don't get too cocky over the GEM verbatim, it is mainly rain for us It looks a tad colder, but the maps are bad so I am probably wrong. Anyway, it does say the GFS is still an outlier which is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I would think that's over an inch qpf. Snow to rain to snow for I95. Ratios? Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i really think you need a break from the board. Or a 5 post limit. Is this what old age does to someone? but it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 I remember stormtracker mocking me on the radio show for falsely thinking a model run only had 1" QPF, when it was only though a certain hour. there was a radio show today? No wonder the models crapped out tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I still remember VortMax spazzing out because he only got 1.75" of liquid. The December mini melt down was even better. That one overnight run of the NAM about 36 hours before gametime shifted way south, barely got the 1" line to near DCA and kept the .25 right along the PA border after several runs before that had DC in 2" and my area in 1.5". There were like 10 people freaking out big time, and even DT started going nuts over on SV thinking Richmond was in the game for 20" suddenly. It was funny because I was actually telling people to chillax and it was just one run of one model, and I usually am the one worrying about stuff. Of course the next run was like 2" up to the Mason dixon line LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 there was a radio show today? No wonder the models crapped out tonight! I'm talking about the radio show before Feb 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i really think you need a break from the board. Or a 5 post limit. Is this what old age does to someone? It takes one to know one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The December mini melt down was even better. That one overnight run of the NAM about 36 hours before gametime shifted way south, barely got the 1" line to near DCA and kept the .25 right along the PA border after several runs before that had DC in 2" and my area in 1.5". There were like 10 people freaking out big time, and even DT started going nuts over on SV thinking Richmond was in the game for 20" suddenly. It was funny because I was actually telling people to chillax and it was just one run of one model, and I usually am the one worrying about stuff. Of course the next run was like 2" up to the Mason dixon line LOL Yes, I remember Dec 19th had a very persistent hole in NE MD right up until 24 hours or so before the storm. I was scared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Is that as warm as it gets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 There was also a pretty big meltdown, at least for the guys south of Columbia Maryland, when on the night of Feb. 5 the dry slot was advancing unexpectedly fast and north. Most areas had already gotten at least 10 inches of snow, but it briefly looked like the dry slot would encroach D.C. before the pivot. It wasn't certain till like 4 or 5 a.m. that DC was safe. Anyone know where I can find that radar image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 There was also a pretty big meltdown, at least for the guys south of Columbia Maryland, when on the night of Feb. 5 the dry slot was advancing unexpectedly fast and north. Most areas had already gotten at least 10 inches of snow, but it briefly looked like the dry slot would encroach D.C. before the pivot. It wasn't certain till like 4 or 5 a.m. that DC was safe. Anyone know where I can find that radar image? i remember that lol...wow...what a panic. We only had 12 and was trying to figure out where the other 20 would be coming from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I would think that's over an inch qpf. Snow to rain to snow for I95. Ratios? Who knows. actually its more compact so it lost the front end wave that gave DC snow on the 12z run, but the low bombs in a way and according to precip type charts its extremely heavy wet snow during the peak of the storm just north and west of the cities. Its amazing DC is just about all rain but Leesburg is just about all snow after a short period of rain at the start. Judging from the precip amounts according to the key, it implies maybe 1" in DC and Baltimore city, then 6" out towards IAD and Owings mills and 10" out towards Leesburg to FDK to Westminster. Either way its very very close to a great solution and most importantly evidence the GFS is having some kind of problem. I probably shouldnt even give details like that at this range as specifics are not important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 There was also a pretty big meltdown, at least for the guys south of Columbia Maryland, when on the night of Feb. 5 the dry slot was advancing unexpectedly fast and north. Most areas had already gotten at least 10 inches of snow, but it briefly looked like the dry slot would encroach D.C. before the pivot. It wasn't certain till like 4 or 5 a.m. that DC was safe. Anyone know where I can find that radar image? Ian posed all the snow radars on the 1st or 2nd page of this MA subforum I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Is that as warm as it gets? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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