Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 those are the two most logical camps unfortunately. i think it will be hard to get a bomb up the coast without worrying about temps at all. obviously we can say that about a lot of big storms. Well, then the most logical move would be to add them together and divide by 2. I don't think there would be any complaints about that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 those are the two most logical camps unfortunately. i think it will be hard to get a bomb up the coast without worrying about temps at all. obviously we can say that about a lot of big storms. The GFS is basically "perfect" right now. I guess that makes it easier to know what to root/look for on each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 you don't get to see this too often http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=35.25459097465025&lon=-75.5474853515625&site=mhx&smap=1&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The GFS is basically "perfect" right now. I guess that makes it easier to know what to root/look for on each run. perfect for you.. purple hog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 BTW... RaleighWx added GFS Ensemble Snowfall maps to his page, so that you can see how much snow each member gives you http://raleighwx.ame...ls/Members.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The NAM won't track as far S with this run based on its configuration. I wouldn't say it "trended" to the GFS--but it is closer to that type of wave pattern than the 18Z NAM was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 BTW... RaleighWx added GFS Ensemble Snowfall maps to his page, so that you can see how much snow each member gives you http://raleighwx.ame...ls/Members.html this one must be the most right http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zensp004snow132.gif north trend ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The NAM won't track as far S with this run based on its configuration. I wouldn't say it "trended" to the GFS--but it is closer to that type of wave pattern than the 18Z NAM was. Yeah the northern energy is further north thru 54 hrs than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The NAM won't track as far S with this run based on its configuration. I wouldn't say it "trended" to the GFS--but it is closer to that type of wave pattern than the 18Z NAM was. Oh great, perfect post to incite the "nina climo seasonal trend pattern miller b fringe screwjob congrats NE" posts. Well, I just took care of all of that in this thread so hopefully the usual suspects can refrain from the broken record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah the northern energy is further north thru 54 hrs than 18z. Biggest difference is it isn't digging the secondary jet into the intermountain W on the western flank--so this won't be as far S or as slow just analyzing this NAM run. Matches up with the 21Z SREF mean which was a tick farther E and not as far S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Is that a 50/50 low I see at 66 in h5? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_066l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Oh great, perfect post to incite the "nina climo seasonal trend pattern miller b fringe screwjob congrats NE" posts. Well, I just took care of all of that in this thread so hopefully the usual suspects can refrain from the broken record. It is still way farther S and slower than the GFS--that said--I don't really give the SREF/NAM much credence in this flow pattern just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It is still way farther S and slower than the GFS--that said--I don't really give the SREF/NAM much credence in this flow pattern just yet. Muchos gracias for the extra post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well it is still definitely way S--just not as slow or as far W as the previous run. Still not even close to the 18Z GFS operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It is still way farther S and slower than the GFS--that said--I don't really give the SREF/NAM much credence in this flow pattern just yet. i would think the globals are almost always going to be better than the nam at this range no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i would think the globals are almost always going to be better than the nam at this range no? In terms of the 'large scale', absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Very slightly positive h5 at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i would think the globals are almost always going to be better than the nam at this range no? In terms of the 'large scale', absolutely. Perhaps DTK can elaborate. I do know the NAM expanded its domain sometime in the recent past--but it still is initialized by older GFS runs along its outer domain as well (0Z NAM would be initialized with the 18Z GFS--if I understand it correctly)--another reason to give it less credence when the system in question is tracking in from the Aleutians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Differences are obvious by the time the H5 energy moves into Montanna and Wyoming. If the back edge is in wrn MT WY it's a slower more amplified warmer solution: NAM GGEM UKMET ECMWF If the back edge is in ERN MT WY it's a less amplified colder solution. GFS SREFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm more interested in the vortex near the maritimes as I think it is a potential big player in what happens along the coast. in addition to what is happening to the complex digging farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm more interested in the vortex near the maritimes as I think it is a potential big player in what happens along the coast. in addition to what is happening to the complex digging farther west. Same here. If that 50-50 low stays put. Brand new ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm more interested in the vortex near the maritimes as I think it is a potential big player in what happens along the coast. in addition to what is happening to the complex digging farther west. I was looking at that earlier too Wes. It seems to be doing the "dumbbell dance" with the vortex over Hudson's Bay that just came onto the scene looks like its ready to cut WNW to me, or possibly merge with the Hudson;s Bay vortex http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/index_500_m_loop.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The low that scoots off the NC-SC border tomorrow, might have an affect on the 50-50 low. For the better or worse, time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I was looking at that earlier too Wes. It seems to be doing the "dumbbell dance" with the vortex over Hudson's Bay that just came onto the scene looks like its ready to cut WNW to me, or possibly merge with the Hudson;s Bay vortex http://www.nco.ncep....00_m_loop.shtml It does look like its about to swing northwestward. I guess the big question is will it still be providing some confluence until the redevelopment starts near or off the coast and we won't know that until we know how the complex trough to the west pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks like the 00z GFS is bringing in the northern energy into C MT at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks like the 00z GFS is bringing in the northern energy into C MT at 42 And it holds east. Would wait a few more runs to celebrate though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks to me like it will be another cold looking run but maybe not as wet but that's after only looking at 48 hrs and extrapolating what a model will do is always a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks to me like it will be another cold looking run but maybe not as wet but that's after only looking at 48 hrs and extrapolating what a model will do is always a stretch. the Board would loose half its members if we couldn't do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS is on a beeline eastward towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ... The surface looks more like an incoming clipper at hour 60 than a Miller A in the works.. Same with the 500 mb.... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_060m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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