pojrzsho Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I have this copied for just these posts. Yeah exactly. The inevitable "THE MODELS SUCK!" comments are going to come out in these patterns. The models are doing fine. It is a nod to human ingenuity that these models can even suggest these threats 5-7 days in advance. Kudos to them; no kudos to the people who believe models suck if they can't nail down threats a week in advance. should we repeat and tap our heals together three times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The December mini melt down was even better. That one overnight run of the NAM about 36 hours before gametime shifted way south, barely got the 1" line to near DCA and kept the .25 right along the PA border after several runs before that had DC in 2" and my area in 1.5". There were like 10 people freaking out big time, and even DT started going nuts over on SV thinking Richmond was in the game for 20" suddenly. It was funny because I was actually telling people to chillax and it was just one run of one model, and I usually am the one worrying about stuff. Of course the next run was like 2" up to the Mason dixon line LOL after 2 horrible winters, I think it was fair to say many people were on edge before 12/19/09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 i really thought after last year...i could handle a snowless winter. boy was i wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Can't the Canadians get some better maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 should we repeat and tap our heals together three times heals? As long as we stop bashing models without having a clue how they work--I don't care what people do. I think some folks need to realize what it would be like with no numerical guidance. I know some of the old timers can attest to what that was like. http://www.americanw...models-so-good/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GEM seems to have warm surface temps, because the precip type has very little ice, its all snow or ran/snow mix or rain. That implies a slight change in surface temps could mean some of that is snow, its hard to tell without 850 temps. We will know a lot more when ewall updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Can't the Canadians get some better maps? Its basically rain east of the Blue Ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GEM seems to have warm surface temps, because the precip type has very little ice, its all snow or ran/snow mix or rain. That implies a slight change in surface temps could mean some of that is snow, its hard to tell without 850 temps. We will know a lot more when ewall updates. You are going too deep. It is colder with an OK track. 100+ hours out that is enough. On to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Can't the Canadians get some better maps? Just use allans site for the GGEM, much much better. EDIT, not updated as it usually is, but you get the point I assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GEM seems to have warm surface temps, because the precip type has very little ice, its all snow or ran/snow mix or rain. That implies a slight change in surface temps could mean some of that is snow, its hard to tell without 850 temps. We will know a lot more when ewall updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 UMKET at 72 hours looks like the NAM, definitely not like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 after 2 horrible winters, I think it was fair to say many people were on edge before 12/19/09 Didn't the NAM spit out like 50 inches of snow verbatim in a bullseye at one point somewhere around here less than 36 hours before the storm? I remember I didn't believe it, till I saw someone say that, and I was like, "Damn, this is the real deal." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Didn't the NAM spit out like 50 inches of snow verbatim in a bullseye at one point somewhere around here less than 36 hours before the storm? I remember I didn't believe it, till I saw someone say, and I was like, "Damn, this is the real deal." bufkit did it was wrong by a hair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 00z cmc http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 heals? As long as we stop bashing models without having a clue how they work--I don't car what people do. I think some folks need to realize what it would be like with no numerical guidance. I know some of the old timers can attest to what that was like. http://www.americanw...models-so-good/ sorry....thanks for pointing out that letter....if you buy a brand new car and it starts giving you major problems after 2 weeks, the dealer telling you it's better than the horse and buggy aint bringing u comfort. I have no idea what the issue might be, but for the GFS to show a HECS with the only major question being where rain/snow line is at 1/21 0z to turn around and make show a clipper system 24 hours later is just goofy that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Anybody have any analysis on the h5 track for the GGEM? And how it compares to the GFS etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 UMKET at 72 hours looks like the NAM, definitely not like the GFS. Good news. Bet it is all rain, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 00z cmc http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/cmcloop.html Man, 850s don't look all that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the better graphics on ewall are updated, as I suspected 850's look a lot better then the precip output implied, I am guessing there are 35 degree surface temps keeping it from being snow. Judging by 850's it starts as snow, during the height of the storm the 850 line gets to right along 95 then collapses east. There is also a look that makes sense at h7 now that I have been hoping for, and that is the dryslot. After an initial thump snow instead of heavy rain we would dryslot before a period of wrap around snows. Makes sense given the H7 track also. Phin: I am well aware this is pointless but I am bored and its fun to do analysis so I am doing it, even if it is silly. This is purely for entertainment purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 sorry....thanks for pointing out that letter....if you buy a brand new car and it starts giving you major problems after 2 weeks, the dealer telling you it's better than the horse and buggy aint bringing u comfort. I have no idea what the issue might be, but for the GFS to show a HECS with the only major question being where rain/snow line is at 1/21 0z to turn around and make show a clipper system 24 hours later is just goofy that's all. It is the nature of chaos--we will never get around this in our lifetimes. I said early on the models would probably have some of the lowest verification scores in the height field with this pattern--it is just how certain patterns develop. Some forecasts are just significantly more challenging than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Anybody have any analysis on the h5 track for the GGEM? And how it compares to the GFS etc? GGEM tracks the H5 low from Memphis TN to Nashville to Roanoke to the delmarva. Crosses south central VA, were good there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the better graphics on ewall are updated, as I suspected 850's look a lot better then the precip output implied, I am guessing there are 35 degree surface temps keeping it from being snow. Judging by 850's it starts as snow, during the height of the storm the 850 line gets to right along 95 then collapses east. There is also a look that makes sense at h7 now that I have been hoping for, and that is the dryslot. After an initial thump snow instead of heavy rain we would dryslot before a period of wrap around snows. Makes sense given the H7 track also. Phin: I am well aware this is pointless but I am bored and its fun to do analysis so I am doing it, even if it is silly. This is purely for entertainment purposes. GGEM has a warm bias anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It is the nature of chaos--we will never get around this in our lifetimes. I said early on the models would probably have some of the lowest verification scores in the height field with this pattern--it is just how certain patterns develop. Some forecasts are just significantly more challenging than others. While the GFS has been on a roll lately it really has no support right now. Where can we look for evidence of which camp may be onto the right solution at this point? Do you see any clues yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Oh ok then UKIE.... I suppose I could live with the UK solution there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It is the nature of chaos--we will never get around this in our lifetimes. I said early on the models would probably have some of the lowest verification scores in the height field with this pattern--it is just how certain patterns develop. Some forecasts are just significantly more challenging than others. fair enough...in your opinion what is more likely....clipper type of 2 to 6 inch snows ....or.... Hecs E of 95 w snow to rain and still a big storm East of 95? Thanks, and sorry i had actually fallen asleep after 0z NAM, and looked at the GFS run just past midnight... was just shocking when I first looped it. Wasn't bashing you, just surprised that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Good news. Bet it is all rain, though. lol probably not considering at 120 it has 986 mb low just east of the VA capes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 UKMET looks like a massive hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 That UKMET track is pure porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 jesus on the ukie wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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