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Off we go, Tracking the Friday All In Storm/NADS


stormtracker

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I wish things would change so I can be "wrong" again

Maybe next year we will not only be back to no snow but also 50s and nothing to track for weeks on end like it was for 7 of the past 10 years. Considering everything we've been able to track, the cold weather and the fact that winter is only half over I think it could be a hell of a lot worse.

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Maybe next year we will not only be back to no snow but also 50s and nothing to track for weeks on end like it was for 7 of the past 10 years. Considering everything we've been able to track, the cold weather and the fact that winter is only half over I think it could be a hell of a lot worse.

if were not going to have significant snow, I would rather it be 50 so I can go outside and do things.

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I wish things would change so I can be "wrong" again

I value your knowledge and insight, but you were wrong last week when you had many convinced during that Tuesday storm that the predicted 1 to 3 inches were not going to materialize cause you said everything was shunting off into southern PA. In the end, it ended up being exactly what was modeled - a quick, but intense, 1 to 2 inches of snow from DC on north.

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Maybe next year we will not only be back to no snow but also 50s and nothing to track for weeks on end like it was for 7 of the past 10 years. Considering everything we've been able to track, the cold weather and the fact that winter is only half over I think it could be a hell of a lot worse.

Hoffman admitted he couldn't care less about any event under 10 inches.

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I value your knowledge and insight, but you were wrong last week when you had many convinced during that Tuesday storm that the predicted 1 to 3 inches were not going to materialize cause you said everything was shunting off into southern PA. In the end, it ended up being exactly what was modeled - a quick, but intense, 1 to 2 inches of snow from DC on north.

You need to read his posts carefully. He punts on any event less than 10 inches. The nearly 4 inches I received in the last storm was a total bust to him.

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I value your knowledge and insight, but you were wrong last week when you had many convinced during that Tuesday storm that the predicted 1 to 3 inches were not going to materialize cause you said everything was shunting off into southern PA. In the end, it ended up being exactly what was modeled - a quick, but intense, 1 to 2 inches of snow from DC on north.

I guess expectations are different

1-2" of snow is nice but I would not spend hours and hours tracking if I knew the end result was going to be a couple inches. So on that note, I was hopeful that a few of the NAM runs that developed things further south would be correct, I saw by that afternoon that was not the case. Second, our area did not get anything from the coastal and no it did not happen as the models showed, there was supposed to be precip south and east of DC and they did not get anything. The coastal formed further north then models indicated, that is why NYC only got 8". The DC/BWI area got a quick burst of snow from the H5 energy coming over the area from the west. They got lucky basically. Ask anyone living anywhere south of DC if things went according to models when they got a trace of precip instead of the .15 or so predicted.

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Threat still looks fine to me, or is it Friday already?

I think there is some confusion. The threat has always been for the 21st/22nd (if you want to call it the "DT" storm, DT even said 21st/22nd when he first mentioned it). Then the Euro showed a fantasy storm on the 23rd for 2 runs in a row and people jumped on to that, despite the fact that no other model showed anything remotely similar (this is when the "NADS" joke was born). The problem is people saw those two Euro runs ( it was the 0z and 12z Sunday runs) and got in their heads that the real threat was for a later period, despite the Euro being the only one showing that later scenario. Take out the 2 runs, and the models have been consistent in showing that the only threat was for the 21st/22nd.

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You need to read his posts carefully. He punts on any event less than 10 inches. The nearly 4 inches I received in the last storm was a total bust to him.

its 6 inches please get it straight

it also depends...a nice 2" surprise from a clipper is different from when a storm that had 8" potential craps the bed and ends up with 2". Not all setups are the same. It is true that I do not get excited much by 1-3" inch events. I would much rather have one 20" snowstorm and nothing else all winter then 30" that come 2-4" at a time. For instance I know many hated 05/06 because it was warm for much of the winter, but I loved that winter. Had 2 pretty good snows in December and then the HECS in February. The rest of the winter was nice out and I could do things outside. That was perfect to me. This cold with minor events is just annoying to me. That said I can still analyze a storm and predict what I think will happen, not what I want to happen.

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