Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Doubtful. NYC and SNE are going to get shelacked again. it could be similar to last week.. not many people were satiated by that. im hopeful it has a little more qpf but our top end is probably not that high since we are unlikely to get in on the coastal much if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Alternatively - Now Appearing to be Dusting or Sleet.... ...or... Not Any Damn Snow... those could work... maybe every storm this yr can be a nads storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS at 42 hrs looks loads better for Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It's funny how after the last fiasco he said he was never going to advertise big snows for RIC and central VA again this year, and he's been honking more JB the last week. dt is a good forecaster when it buckles down but i think he has too many "fans" these days so he is apt to just spew crap a lot to keep them fed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I have had less than 3" here, so I would think that is well below average. Yeah, that's certainly below average for mid-January. I don't know for sure what your climo is (~20"?), but you're still not that far of the mark. If your climo is ~20", it's probably broken down like this: Nov: 0.1" Dec: 2.5" Jan: 6" Feb: 8" Mar: 3.5" More or less. So, we're halfway through January, so you "should" be around 5.5". You've got about 50% of that. Get 3" on Friday and you're right back to normal. When PSUHoffman's storm buries us all next week, you're above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Hoffman may be getting more excited about Friday the trough is digging more . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 When PSUHoffman's storm buries us all next week, you're above normal I am going to charge per inch on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Hoffman may be getting more excited about Friday the trough is digging more . definitely colder than last run and much more so than over wound NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 dt is a good forecaster when it buckles down but i think he has too many "fans" these days so he is apt to just spew crap a lot to keep them fed. He's a very good forecaster, or can be. His facebook page though is LOL-tastic...hundreds of weenies asking "how much for IMBY" and he keeps tossing out bones in the Day 5-10 range for big dogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I am going to charge per inch on this one ...that's what she said Sorry, couldn't help it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I am going to charge per inch on this one That's what she said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 48 hr RGEM me likey a lot http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Hoffman may be getting more excited about Friday the trough is digging more . I am still tracking it despite the plethora of "he punted" comments Just because I like the setup next week (and I really do, H5 tracks south of us finally) does not mean I have given up on this completely. And yes the trends today are good, and perhaps I will gladly eat that crow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS at 42 hrs looks loads better for Fri looks like the low trying to track to our south at 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 definitely colder than last run and much more so than over wound NAM Maybe we can actually get 4-6" out of this best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 dc looking good at 72 1004mb low off the va capes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 looks like the low trying to track to our south at 66 RGEM is way south at 48 hrs too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 dc looking good at 72 1004mb low off the va capes can't be not the District of Columbia DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 That's what she said. ZING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I am still tracking it despite the plethora of "he punted" comments Just because I like the setup next week (and I really do, H5 tracks south of us finally) does not mean I have given up on this completely. And yes the trends today are good, and perhaps I will gladly eat that crow. Trust me i am not teasing you at all, for a non met you have amazing knowledge. Just from reading your posts over the years i have learned a ton about weather and what we need in this area for a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i like the fact that the GFS still has good temps and qpf that looks to be snow, everything else is still hearsay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i like the fact that the GFS still has good temps and qpf that looks to be snow, everything else is still hearsay well, not hearsay, more like weenie hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Trust me i am not teasing you at all, for a non met you have amazing knowledge. Just from reading your posts over the years i have learned a ton about weather and what we need in this area for a good storm. I didn't think you were, its ok. I was just acknowledging you were right, the trends today are very positive. Don't worry I have pretty thick skin, have too teaching 10th graders and forecasting weather. PS. Thanks for the complements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I am still tracking it despite the plethora of "he punted" comments Just because I like the setup next week (and I really do, H5 tracks south of us finally) does not mean I have given up on this completely. And yes the trends today are good, and perhaps I will gladly eat that crow. there is very little change the northern vort goes to our south. this run of the gfs is about as good as it gets imo, which wouldnt be bad if it was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I didn't think you were, its ok. I was just acknowledging you were right, the trends today are very positive. Don't worry I have pretty thick skin, have too teaching 10th graders and forecasting weather. you forgot the "10th grade types" like us on the Board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 ukie takes the low due east across central va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 there is very little change the northern vort goes to our south. this run of the gfs is about as good as it gets imo, which wouldnt be bad if it was right. agree, the northern vort is not going to our south. But if we got EVERYTHING else to line up perfectly with some STJ moisture and the phase at the exact right time we could pull a 4-8" event out of the hat. It would have to be perfect and that is about the max for our area but its possible. Trends today are good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I didn't think you were, its ok. I was just acknowledging you were right, the trends today are very positive. Don't worry I have pretty thick skin, have too teaching 10th graders and forecasting weather. PS. Thanks for the complements My pleasure, you should start a Foot's forecast type of thing with your students and then everyone on the board can tease you incessantly . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm just hoping the NAM keeps trending south. PLEASE! Encouraging signs today. I need the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS qpf: BWI-.31 DCA-.28" IAD-.27" all snow for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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