snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 GFS not as fast as the NAM, but it's definitely trended warmer since 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 GFS not as fast as the NAM, but it's definitely trended warmer since 18z. I like the LP placement tho, trend south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I like the gfs this evening, much improved. Seems like the storm is much more organized also. TREND? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 This low might run along I80 I have a feeling.. It definitely did not turn sharply n/e this time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 lmao look at that thread explode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 ANYONEEEE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 ANYONEEEE meh........................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 lol at the GFS slowly trending towards the NAM. I would probably cry if we saw 36*F and light rain with this storm. I'd rather keep the snowpack and stay dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 lol at the GFS slowly trending towards the NAM. I would probably cry if we saw 36*F and light rain with this storm. I'd rather keep the snowpack and stay dy. Temp wise? Maybe. Track, no! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 time to move to the thurs-friday threat...much more potential for Friv, Chicago WX and hoosier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Temp wise? Maybe. Track, no! The temp is what matters. It doesn't matter if the low tracks over Indianapolis if we're above zero from 850mb on down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The temp is what matters. It doesn't matter if the low tracks over Indianapolis if we're above zero from 850mb on down. I would take the thermals on the models as of now with a grain of salt.. We will get a better reading on the thermals with tomorrow nights runs, whether they're warm or cold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 It gonna rain. For here anyway. Good luck to those farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I would take the thermals on the models as of now with a grain of salt.. We will get a better reading on the thermals with tomorrow nights runs, whether they're warm or cold.. +1 on your avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 It gonna rain. For here anyway. Good luck to those farther north. Looks like i'm going to be right on the edge.. ^Lol tnx.. We gotta take care of business tomorrow though it aint gonna be easy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I would take the thermals on the models as of now with a grain of salt.. We will get a better reading on the thermals with tomorrow nights runs, whether they're warm or cold.. You guys in Chicago are definitely in a better position than us guys to the E and S (for the margin of error). One plus is that we don't have a surface ridge over the SE, so it's not a particularly intense southerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 If this low tracks south of Michigan, (which it does until hour 66), then S/Mi would be in a good spot also. Basically right now its cutting right through S/E Mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Looks like i'm going to be right on the edge.. ^Lol tnx.. We gotta take care of business tomorrow though it aint gonna be easy.. Yep, you will be riding the slop mix line it looks like. And yes, Seahawks will be tough, but we'll do this. Bears-Packers to go to the SB is meant to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 This looks like a Miller B Setup.. Or a coast transfer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I think nam might have some errors, thermal profiles are a little off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 taking a look at the new IWX WRF right now, it brings most of northern IL above freezing at the sfc during the evening hours monday but not before a few hours of snow sitting between 28-30 and we stay between 32-34 degrees after that but temps at 850mb dont get above -2. during the entire event. and 925mb temps dont go above freezing. dew points come up to 32 about 4-6 hours after the sfc temps get to freezing. still trying to figure this event out, think a 1-3" call for here is safe right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'd watch where the low ends up tracking, I find it a bit hard to believe the warm air will make it up here if the system is south of us. 30Kts at 850 isn't that terribly strong and it really is not that warm south of us when the winds turn southerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 lol at the GFS slowly trending towards the NAM. I would probably cry if we saw 36*F and light rain with this storm. I'd rather keep the snowpack and stay dry. I was sickened to see the GFS trend warmer. Even if that pans out, no way do we lose this snowpack. If anything the rain will soak into it..but the pretty look may fade some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'd watch where the low ends up tracking, I find it a bit hard to believe the warm air will make it up here if the system is south of us. 30Kts at 850 isn't that terribly strong and it really is not that warm south of us when the winds turn southerly. it'll be 34 with a mix bag and you'll be outside trying to cover your snowpack with some plastic wrap to keep it from melting. SE michigan always finds a way to be warmer than progged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 i'm telling you snowcover weenies come on up to grand forks, its insane 2nd winter i've been here and from november to march its a constant deep snowpack plus you get to watch the epic flood in the sping. We've easily got 1-2 feet on the ground with the drifts and snow mounds that are at least 2 stories high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 it'll be 34 with a mix bag and you'll be outside trying to cover your snowpack with some plastic wrap to keep it from melting. SE michigan always finds a way to be warmer than progged Lately we have been colder then expected so maybe this year we buck the warm trend. Personally its on a Monday night, I am not going to be working or going out so, let it be an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 i'm telling you snowcover weenies come on up to grand forks, its insane 2nd winter i've been here and from november to march its a constant deep snowpack plus you get to watch the epic flood in the sping. We've easily got 1-2 feet on the ground with the drifts and snow mounds that are at least 2 stories high. Ya just wait until your Apt or house is an island come late April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Lately we have been colder then expected so maybe this year we buck the warm trend. Personally its on a Monday night, I am not going to be working or going out so, let it be an ice storm maybe... that high isn't in a favorable position to give you cold easterly flow, but that shallow arctic air always tends to be hard to push out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Ya just wait until your Apt or house is an island come late April i'm 2 miles from the river and we built giant walls to protect us to like 57 feet, fargo on the other hand...... they are gonna have some fun again this spring. we don't mess around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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