Stebo Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 maybe... that high isn't in a favorable position to give you cold easterly flow, but that shallow arctic air always tends to be hard to push out. Yeah and lets put it this way, its going to be 7 tonight and 20 tomorrow and 10 tomorrow night. I think at worst we get to +0.5 at 850mb and at the surface it doesn't get above 30 especially considering this is mostly coming at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 this is going to end up being a DBQ special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Canadian=Good bye snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 this is going to end up being a DBQ special. Maybe. I'm liking MSP to GRB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Canadian=Good bye snowpack. This makes no sense...same temps as the GFS/NAM basically followed by possible backside/more organized snows after the transition from rain/mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Maybe. I'm liking MSP to GRB. Its a GRB special when they lose next sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Canadian=Good bye snowpack. I don't think so. 0z GGEM is pretty far south compared to the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Its a GRB special when they lose next sunday Touche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Bears fans talking trash already when they arent even in the NFC C. game yet? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 This makes no sense...same temps as the GFS/NAM basically followed by possible backside/more organized snows after the transition from rain/mix. Not liking the CMC at all, horrible. .. It does not make sense, this just tells me models are still struggling. We still don't know what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I don't think so. 0z GGEM is pretty far south compared to the other guidance. It is pretty far south, but the Waa is insane. The CMC looks like the gfs 3 days ago.. CMC's track is perfect for significant snowfall for s/e Mi.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Not liking the CMC at all, horrible. .. It does not make sense, this just tells me models are still struggling. We still don't know what will happen. CMC is your best option for tonight's run so far, well actually maybe some GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 It is pretty far south, but the Waa is insane. The CMC looks like the gfs 3 days ago.. WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 CMC is your best option for tonight's run so far, well actually maybe some GEFS. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 WTF am I looking at the wrong thing then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 am I looking at the wrong thing then? Its not that, it's your use of insane to describe the WAA...verbatim it would spell 850s/2m similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Its not that, it's your use of insane to describe the WAA...verbatim it would spell 850s/2m similar to the GFS. Oh lol, well yes, I'm saying insane because of the track and how much waa it pulls. Maybe the 2m temps are marginal or slightly above freezing, but still. Basically the whole system is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I am not saying the modeling has some kind of handle on this system but I still think there is a wild card in this storm. At the risk of going so far the other way of getting burnt by literally shoving the colder global temp regime and much colder ocean water down the throat of every storm system to come the next 30 years, in a general sense, the GFS going south throws up a caution flag for me. This will not be a major event (maybe a small area could qualify) so it is not suggesting that BECAUSE SOUTH THEN EVERYONE GETS SNOW but it is to point out what I have exhausted myself to research to since 2004 that model physics are going to be too warm for this storm in most places. Now while I am probably whining over spilled milk here because I still like it getting to rain well into C IN and OH, I still have to consider a stronger cold dome in place leading to snow and sleet at the beginning in some areas that might be surprising. Again and I stress, not a big event but when the general consensus thinks very little if any freezing rain or snow comes at the beginning an extended period of time of freezing rain could occur especially the farther north one goes and especially in valleys. Most on here that have studied the weather in depth has never seen many storms where warm air was ever held in check because it always over surged and we rose greater then models thought. However, with the new regime we are in I have to leave that side open that warm air will start being over forecasted because the model upgrades have tried to catch up to the warm cycle we had been in since the late 1970s. Something to think about. The GFS always had the SE bias but if you notice since last winter and especially this winter the GFS has wanted to push more SE. We have had 5 or 6 storms already this winter that we expect the NW trend to occur and it did not happen. There have been a couple storms where we thought a NW trend was happening but what happened is the low was trying to find heat that it went so far north towards the block that new southern low pressure formed. A sign that high pressure to the north is going to be strong. We do not have that much block this time so I do not expect that much for late Mon into Tues but that is another reason why I knew blocking would be a mainstay this winter. Anyway, I am curious to see how this evolves because if the SE trend continues on the GFS then do not be surprised if some places have a sustained period of ice. Confidence is not high because like all of you, this is in the infant stages of a new global pressure belt regime but this could be a very key cog in getting ahead of the game for coming storms and for all storms to come. Me being in S Ohio, since this is a wide region it does not fit into the whole demographic area so have to consider that when reading but trying to look at this on a very broad spectrum maybe it will make some more sense because I know some still get screwed and other areas are saying we get crap because we only get 1-2" but hopefully you see the overall premises of this post. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Adjos the GGEM is actually a good option compared to the others and the trend in tonight's runs is a shift to a slightly further South low track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I am not saying the modeling has some kind of handle on this system but I still think there is a wild card in this storm. At the risk of going so far the other way of getting burnt by literally shoving the colder global temp regime and much colder ocean water down the throat of every storm system to come the next 30 years, in a general sense, the GFS going south throws up a caution flag for me. This will not be a major event (maybe a small area could qualify) so it is not suggesting that BECAUSE SOUTH THEN EVERYONE GETS SNOW but it is to point out what I have exhausted myself to research to since 2004 that model physics are going to be too warm for this storm in most places. Now while I am probably whining over spilled milk here because I still like it getting to rain well into C IN and OH, I still have to consider a stronger cold dome in place leading to snow and sleet at the beginning in some areas that might be surprising. Again and I stress, not a big event but when the general consensus thinks very little if any freezing rain or snow comes at the beginning an extended period of time of freezing rain could occur especially the farther north one goes and especially in valleys. Most on here that have studied the weather in depth has never seen many storms where warm air was ever held in check because it always over surged and we rose greater then models thought. However, with the new regime we are in I have to leave that side open that warm air will start being over forecasted because the model upgrades have tried to catch up to the warm cycle we had been in since the late 1970s. Something to think about. The GFS always had the SE bias but if you notice since last winter and especially this winter the GFS has wanted to push more SE. We have had 5 or 6 storms already this winter that we expect the NW trend to occur and it did not happen. There have been a couple storms where we thought a NW trend was happening but what happened is the low was trying to find heat that it went so far north towards the block that new southern low pressure formed. A sign that high pressure to the north is going to be strong. We do not have that much block this time so I do not expect that much for late Mon into Tues but that is another reason why I knew blocking would be a mainstay this winter. Anyway, I am curious to see how this evolves because if the SE trend continues on the GFS then do not be surprised if some places have a sustained period of ice. Confidence is not high because like all of you, this is in the infant stages of a new global pressure belt regime but this could be a very key cog in getting ahead of the game for coming storms and for all storms to come. Me being in S Ohio, since this is a wide region it does not fit into the whole demographic area so have to consider that when reading but trying to look at this on a very broad spectrum maybe it will make some more sense because I know some still get screwed and other areas are saying we get crap because we only get 1-2" but hopefully you see the overall premises of this post. Josh Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Adjos the GGEM is actually a good option compared to the others and the trend in tonight's runs is a shift to a slightly further South low track Yes I agree, that track is pretty good for us, but that does not mean we will be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 on the positive note, TWC removed mix during day-rain night. Sub- Light snow over night with snowshower tue... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 A nice hit of snow then change to rain and back to snow according to the cmc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Bears fans talking trash already when they arent even in the NFC C. game yet? Really? Its confidence talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 <3<3<3 http://www.meteo.psu...nogapsloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Matty Money close to warning snow on the Euro. Solid advisory here. That means coming home from vacation like yesterday to barely nothing while the whole surrounding area looks like A Josh wonderland... Man we must have got boned again here last week.. ****ing downtown was stacked with a decent pack... exit the breezeway here and more pokers than Vegas. 2m temps ugly.. 850's workable.. who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 <3<3<3 http://www.meteo.psu...nogapsloop.html Looks like tonights runs are trying to get a more organized phased southern low to develop. hey.bmp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 lmao. Really? One model going with the southern low idea and that is the LOLGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 lmao. Really? One model going with the southern low idea and that is the LOLGAPS. Actually majority of the models have shifted somewhat south.. CMC's track looks similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Arctic air fail. stun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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