wxsniss Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Are there any general rules about which mesoscale models are most accurate in < 24 hr or < 48 hr timeframes? ETA EURO MM5 RGEM SREF Or is it just too variable in different setups from storm to storm...? Right now it seems ETA is farther west with heaviest qpf, and there's more of a consensus with EURO/RGEM/SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well I issued my forecast to clients awhile ago. I do think some lollis to 20" are possible. I'll throw out some numbers later. Euro qpf wasn't NAM-esque with 1.5-2.0+ amounts....more like 1.00-1.25 with a few spots maybe just over 1.25. 06z NAM is likely a bit overdone, but its original idea yesterday of something near or inside of ACK seems to have been correct. Is it safe to say you think 12-18 would be a safe forecast with lolli's to 20? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 And herein begins the intra-region rivalry...... : Hey I stay all snow on 6z but would prefer 0Z. You'll snow if the low is in Bermuda anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Are there any general rules about which mesoscale models are most accurate in < 24 hr or < 48 hr timeframes? ETA EURO MM5 RGEM SREF Or is it just too variable in different setups from storm to storm...? Right now it seems ETA is farther west with heaviest qpf, and there's more of a consensus with EURO/RGEM/SREFs Euro is not a meso model. Not sure about RGEM but presumably it is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 And herein begins the intra-region rivalry...... : Have you finally learned your qpf lesson ? About not worrying about what modelled qpf shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Euro is not a meso model. Not sure about RGEM but presumably it is? Huh, I may be wrong... My understanding was that EURO was a blend with some mesoscale properties unlike the GFS... this was discussed here one or two days ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is it safe to say you think 12-18 would be a safe forecast with lolli's to 20? Maybe you should be one of Will's PAYING customers.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Have you finally learned your qpf lesson ? About not worrying about what modelled qpf shows? He's still worrying, he's just hiding it a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Euro is not a meso model. Not sure about RGEM but presumably it is? The EC has a horiz. resolution right up there with the NAM/RGEM/MM5 though and has 1.5x more vertical levels than them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I would like to point out that The American Weather Forum has performed well in this high traffic period. I've experienced no glitches.Kudos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Maybe you should be one of Will's PAYING customers.lol Maybe you should have made a donation to the board?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The EC has a horiz. resolution right up there with the NAM/RGEM/MM5 though and has 1.5x more vertical levels than them. thanks that's what i thought... something like 15km resolution on ECMWF comparable to 12km resolution on MM5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The EC has a horiz. resolution right up there with the NAM/RGEM/MM5 though and has 1.5x more vertical levels than them. So it is a meso model in combination with the properties of globals? No wonder it's so good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The 6z GFS bufkit only has about .53'' of QPF for BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Y'all think this will qualify as a KU or a near miss since it's really only a NYC and New England storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The 6z GFS bufkit only has about .53'' of QPF for BDL. Who cares? It's garbage. I sincerely hope there isn't anyone met or otherwise that is factoring any aspect of the GFS into their forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The 6z GFS bufkit only has about .53'' of QPF for BDL. Pretty much what the GFS has been showing for a few days now, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So it is a meso model in combination with the properties of globals? No wonder it's so good! The difference is that the NAM/MM5 are nonhydrostatic models so they don't follow the rules of the hyrdostatic equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Y'all think this will qualify as a KU or a near miss since it's really only a NYC and New England storm? If NYC/BOS get a foot or so it has to qualify. Huge population. And Philly will probably get 6 anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Y'all think this will qualify as a KU or a near miss since it's really only a NYC and New England storm? This was discussed last night I believe. Since it appears it's an NYC graze and southwest of there insignificant it is not KU-worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Who cares? It's garbage. I sincerely hope there isn't anyone met or otherwise that is factoring any aspect of the GFS into their forecast WHYN radio said we will get some heavy snow showers with up to 6".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This one is your boys i can sit back relax and watch this one know hospitals and morons that drive down the street with plows up in the air.sanitation is showing their presence this time heads are rolling from the last one they were illegally dumping snow in a cemetary knocked down a wall and 150 year old tompstones were destroyed way to go .The trend looks like a sne typical storm i wouldn't mind being short changed my property was destroyed the blacktop took a beating when i needed a bulldozer to clean out my business last time good luck see ya . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Who cares? It's garbage. I sincerely hope there isn't anyone met or otherwise that is factoring any aspect of the GFS into their forecast They typically only factor in the models that give their houses the most snow. It's in the texts...all of them on operational forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Who cares? It's garbage. I sincerely hope there isn't anyone met or otherwise that is factoring any aspect of the GFS into their forecast LOL I just ignored it in my forecast. Went with a SREF/EURO/RGEM mix. GFS underwhelms and NAM overwhelms. I figured with qpf solidly around 1-1.25 and snow ratios of 15:1 (or better?) I went 12-24 for CT. Yup, all my friends, family and coworkers will think I am a complete idiot if the GFS verifies At least I will stop getting facebook messages asking me if there is school, can I go to the bar at 7pm, should I reschedule this, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Who cares? It's garbage. I sincerely hope there isn't anyone met or otherwise that is factoring any aspect of the GFS into their forecast Well it might not mean much but it would be nice at least to see it trend towards the other models. Pretty much what the GFS has been showing for a few days now, no? Yeah GFS has been rather consistent...just like other models have been rather consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 LOL with Ryan at 8-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If NYC/BOS get a foot or so it has to qualify. Huge population. And Philly will probably get 6 anyway. We were talking about that earlier this morning, and if both NYC and BOS get double digits it likely qualifies as a KU event. Theyre going with 8-14 for NYC with more on Long Island and Boston so it likely should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 LOL with Ryan at 8-14 Good forecast but probably underdone in SW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well it might not mean much but it would be nice at least to see it trend towards the other models. Yeah GFS has been rather consistent...just like other models have been rather consistent It did.. 6z was more amped than 00z..It always always plays catch up..Garbage in/garbage out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Have you finally learned your qpf lesson ? About not worrying about what modelled qpf shows? I must have made an impression on the board early in the season that I'm carrying around like old luggage. I haven't been lamenting any qpf portrayals on this system, I don't think. Nor in the last one for that matter. That beign said, I wouldn't mind another nudge NW. Congrats to Mt. Tollland btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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