canderson Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 FWIW 0z NAM is apparently a bad, bad sign if you like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 FWIW 0z NAM is apparently a bad, bad sign if you like snow. Oh great... Guess my 3-6 inches is down the drain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What was wrong with the NAM...showed .25 to .5 over much of NPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What was wrong with the NAM...showed .25 to .5 over much of NPA. famartin had most of SC PA eastward between .1-.2". Only LV and Poconos see .25". He didn't mention anything about more N and W C PA. Regardless, you have to take that with a grain of salt and look at radar returns over the NAM right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Why did they up the 1-3" to 2-4" lol. Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 FWIW 0z NAM is apparently a bad, bad sign if you like snow. Who said that? Here's the brand new 0z NAM total precip thru 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Who said that? Here's the brand new 0z NAM total precip thru 12 hours Bleh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Who said that? Here's the brand new 0z NAM total precip thru 12 hours Looking at that, they must've been talking specific to the SE region as from there no one gets about .25 and the LV sees .25+. MDT is right on that line it appears. But we weren't supposed to see more than 1" before 11 or midnight, and CTP's latest short term says that specifically yet again. We should be OK still, just a slow one to get going. Here's the HRRR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep....kmlproducts.php click on the link you want to see and open with google earth Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looking at that, they must've been talking specific to the SE region as from there no one gets about .25 and the LV sees .25+. MDT is right on that line it appears. But we weren't supposed to see more than 1" before 11 or midnight, and CTP's latest short term says that specifically yet again. We should be OK still, just a slow one to get going. Yea they're usually really focused on that particular region. I'm not too concerned at the minute on anyone busting, the better forcing still seems to be in western/central PA yet. Haven't tried to fire up the 0z WRF radar but the 18z run eventually ran a couple hour shot of heavy snow thru all of SC and southeastern. I had MDT right near the 4-6 boundary but still in the 2-4 range, so I think they're good for being high in that range around 4 inches. Overall with the map I put out i'm glad i kept the 4-6 range high up in PA with the stronger and further north tracking low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Moderate snow currently, up to almost 2 inches so far. Flakes are starting to get better size it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yea they're usually really focused on that particular region. I'm not too concerned at the minute on anyone busting, the better forcing still seems to be in western/central PA yet. Haven't tried to fire up the 0z WRF radar but the 18z run eventually ran a couple hour shot of heavy snow thru all of SC and southeastern. I had MDT right near the 4-6 boundary but still in the 2-4 range, so I think they're good for being high in that range around 4 inches. Overall with the map I put out i'm glad i kept the 4-6 range high up in PA with the stronger and further north tracking low. How do you think the radar looks for us here in the State College region? Not sure how much we have. I measured snow then walked the dog around our fairly large yard, at some point my ruler fell out of my coat pocket. Fail. Probably won't see that for weeks. I am going to guess two inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 1.4" here in S. Williamsport....snowing at a good clip right now. 22.5*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 I might get nothing. This pretty much sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 How do you think the radar looks for us here in the State College region? Not sure how much we have. I measured snow then walked the dog around our fairly large yard, at some point my ruler fell out of my coat pocket. Fail. Probably won't see that for weeks. I am going to guess two inches. It looks like for the interim that its going to be constant light to at times moderate snow falling. At some point in the next few hours I expect the region to light up in heavy snowfall for a couple hours that could hammer down a few inches of snow in a relatively short time followed by lighter snows before shutting off around dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 How do you think the radar looks for us here in the State College region? Not sure how much we have. I measured snow then walked the dog around our fairly large yard, at some point my ruler fell out of my coat pocket. Fail. Probably won't see that for weeks. I am going to guess two inches. And yeah, no offense, but i hope you don't see it til March. Looks like between 1.5-2" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I might get nothing. This pretty much sucks. Maybe we will do better on Tuesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Maybe we will do better on Tuesday! I like how the models still give us 1-2". I'm pretty sure that isn't happening anymore. Radar looked great earlier then fell to pieces. Dang Laurel highlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I like how the models still give us 1-2". I'm pretty sure that isn't happening anymore. Radar looked great earlier then fell to pieces. Dang Laurel highlands. Sounds like you are having a winter like Williamsport did last year. We got 0.6" on Dec 19-20 event that S.PA to NY got 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 WGAL Guy I've never seen just said ge wouldn't be surprised if Lancaster didn't get more than a dusting. We might have ,5" here. Snowing at a better clip now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Sounds like you are having a winter like Williamsport did last year. We got 0.6" on Dec 19-20 event that S.PA to NY got 2 feet. LOL, that first half of 09-10 was painful. 2.5" and 0.2" in events that Philly got 20"+ and 28" respectively... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 3" here temp 22 snowflakes look better now...more fluff in them-lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Here is CTP's 10 pm update (say all still as expected): && Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/... regional radar mosaic showing a widespread light to moderate snow now falling across the bulk of central PA...where strong warm air advection/isentropic lift is occurring. Further south...visibilities still VFR across southeast PA. However...lg scale forcing associated with approaching trough will ramp up markedly after midnight...bringing a period of snow to the lower susq valley. Latest snowfall reports indicate the heaviest amts have been across the Laurel Highlands with 3-4 inches as of 10 PM. A few spots across The Laurels may see just over 6 inches. However...mesoscale model data indicates snow will taper off pretty quickly between 1 and 2 am across the West Mountains Based on ens mean quantitative precipitation forecast and model-based snow/water ratios of around 17/1...will stick with a general 4-6 inch snowfall for much of central and northern PA...where models continue to place the most impressive low-middle level frontogenetic forcing. Further southeast...the lower susq valley still appears on track for 2-4 inches late tonight. As stated above...latest model data and radar trends suggest snow tapers off late tonight...roughly between 2 and 5 am from west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 0z GFS next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 The low is over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 0z GFS next week Start the countdown for the slow trend east until the NYC area is bullseyed and we're hoping to scrape together 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Start the countdown for the slow trend east until the NYC area is bullseyed and we're hoping to scrape together 3". I'm more worried about something like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 2.5" of snow currently, I'm hoping to squeeze in another 1" before the back edge of the precip barrels east ward. Next weeks event looks depressing, congrats eastern PA and MA again, ugghhh wheres the love, i feel bad for williamsport i really really do, at least we get nickled and dimed from LE they get nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm more worried about something like this. i can't see the pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Back end is racing towards us pretty quickly...we're probably going to wind up around 5" on average out here. Decent snowfall.....but it will be the most boring 5" I've ever seen. It was just a steady moderate .5" per hour type snow since mid afternoon. But I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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