am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Thanks guys.. 7 members going to the right doesn't sound like a major anomaly then. No, it's not, but some of the SREF members are showing something similar. I'm not worried about it yet, but it's worth storing in the back of your mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 No, it's not, but some of the SREF members are showing something similar. I'm not worried about it yet, but it's worth storing in the back of your mind. Right... And then add to the fact that we don't have consensus yet from the GGEM and UKIE, it is still should be kept in the back of one's mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18z NAM coming in way further southeast with the surface low compared to it's 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 That is impressive....would be nice if that could hold together. It has the classic hammer look with deep sub tropical moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 By the way...for the NYC folks..this run gets the 1" QPF line back to just west of the city near EWR. All of LI is 1"...Suffolk county 1.25". Wow, 1.25" for Suffolk! From what I have seen from checking in on this thread, the temps may not be super cold; are the ratios expected to be kind of low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18z NAM coming in way further southeast with the surface low compared to it's 12z run yep...does not shock me as the nam does not make a habit at scoring a coup 48+ hrs out...should come in line with the rest this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18z NAM coming in way further southeast with the surface low compared to it's 12z run Is it me, or is the NAM going back to a stronger primary on this run? Edit - Finally losing the primary at 60... Coastal finally starting to deepen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Dynamics and UVV's are much slower to develop...not what we wanted to see so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 So are you thinking the two storms phase sooner then the models are predicting. If they do this would it pull the storm more west, so would you have to worry about mixing or would it bomb out and pull in the cold. yes too soon and it would pull it to the west and the coast will have p-type issues. the key with this storm is to have it get going as quick as possible after the transfer to te coast. the quicker it bombs the lower the temps get and the more precip the areas south of new england will see. the nam showed a solution like this that gave philly to boston a mecs and the gfs bombs out and gives new england a pounding and wasnt as big for the big cities. the storm is no where near being locked in yet though. by 0z tonight both euro/gfs runs "should" have a better idea about this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This run is going to be great for us..PHL north I believe. It is far enough out before it hooks back in to prevent precip type issues for long island most likely. Add to that the fact that the heaviest banding usually occurs JUST to the WEST of where the heaviest QPF is shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Dynamics and UVV's are much slower to develop...not what we wanted to see so far. 18z nam...'nuf said. It's still better than the 0z and stronger than the 6z. The overall trend is still encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foggy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 thanks! this site didnt have it. http://www.world-airport-codes.com/ just google it and then hit 'maps' from now on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18z NAM. Nuff said!! The Euro strengthened the hit for us and that's really what I wanted to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Way south and east..way less QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 nam at 54hr looks a bit flatter with the trough but the sfc low into OH/PA looks about the same. though im only looking at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18z NAM. Nuff said!! The Euro strengthened the hit for us and that's really what I wanted to see. Exactly...the NAM isn't the model for synoptic evolution of storms...you only start looking seriously at the NAM when you're within 36 hours to try to figure out banding/ratios/p-type. People are freaking out for nothing. I have been saying this for the past two days about how bad the NAM is at this range, but no one seems to listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The other thing that's still encouraging is the OV low is still weak. This won't be a perfect storm and nail everyone (especially us away from 95 in PA) but the model trends so far, overall, are pretty damn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 nam keeps the heavy qpf off the coast.... so far hr66 .25+ from phl-nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The NAM flopping around right now isn't a major concern of mine at all. This is just about the 4th different solution it's had in 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18z NAM. Nuff said!! The Euro strengthened the hit for us and that's really what I wanted to see. People are always too quick to throw out the 18z models. They are not quite as accurate, but I've seen many times where trends started on them. I think we're gonna have a nice event here, but 12z NAM was overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Dynamics and UVV's are much slower to develop...not what we wanted to see so far. Why does this matter? 12z NAM was a joke and gave us like three feet of snow. This model clearly has no idea what it's doing, shifting around each run crazily, and is not up to the gold standard of ECM/GFS. The NAM is not meant for these purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 outside of 48 hours the european and the gfs(to some extent) are the models to concentrate on as of the moment. the nam as stated can be used fairly accurately when inside 36 hours which then can even be risky this way for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 At least this run still gives everybody a respectable .25-.5" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This is a pretty quick moving storm...and if everything comes together we could have a 8-12" snow event for PHL - BOS. The most likely scnenario I think is a 4-8" event. If it doesn't come together as shown now by the model consensus, then still probably a 3-5" snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 People are always too quick to throw out the 18z models. They are not quite as accurate, but I've seen many times where trends started on them. I think we're gonna have a nice event here, but 12z NAM was overdone. It probably was overdone, but the NAM's been flopping around for the past 24 hours, and should likely be taken very cautiously for that reason. The Euro and GFS plus their ensembles holding steady and even strengthening the storm is much more telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like about .5" QPF for NYC on the NAM....in line with the more conservative runs we've seen and a good 6-8" of snow with the colder track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 absolutely with regards to NAM and its lack of performance over 48hr. all some of us are doing is trying to analyze the particular model thats running....nothing more, nothing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It probably was overdone, but the NAM's been flopping around for the past 24 hours, and should likely be taken very cautiously for that reason. The Euro and GFS plus their ensembles holding steady and even strengthening the storm is much more telling. The fact that the ECM has so much QPF is a warning siren for me...it is usually paltry at this range with precip. When the ECM is throwing out that much QPF, you know we're talking about a very juicy system with a STJ/Gulf connection and lots of dynamics. That's why some people are calling for 12-18" in NYC metro, and not unreasonably in my mind. I'm still going a bit more conservative and thinking 8-12" is a nice forecast as of now, but with time to update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The fact that the ECM has so much QPF is a warning siren for me...it is usually paltry at this range with precip. When the ECM is throwing out that much QPF, you know we're talking about a very juicy system with a STJ/Gulf connection and lots of dynamics. That's why some people are calling for 12-18" in NYC metro, and not unreasonably in my mind. I'm still going a bit more conservative and thinking 8-12" is a nice forecast as of now, but with time to update. I think you hit the nail on the head.. Bottom line is that right now this is a 6-12" event.. As are most storms until they come into the 24-36 hour time frame.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like about .5" QPF for NYC on the NAM.... The .5 line doesn't get west of the Suffolk county border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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