patrick7032 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It might be a little early to start this thread, but seeing that the majority of the long range models have shown some type of system with decent dynamics for several runs now, figured why not start it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Well, we now know the Detroit area isn't getting jack with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Well, we now know the Detroit area isn't getting jack with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The PNA goes positive (more digging), so some type of storm this period is a given. However, a storm cutting that far north normally doesn't bode well for our reigon once within 180 hours. There's no reason why a ridge won't eventually pop up ahead of it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The PNA goes positive (more digging), so some type of storm this period is a given. However, a storm cutting that far north normally doesn't bode well for our reigon once within 180 hours. There's no reason why a ridge won't eventually pop up ahead of it either. A negative PNA is good for the midwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 The PNA goes positive (more digging), so some type of storm this period is a given. However, a storm cutting that far north normally doesn't bode well for our reigon once within 180 hours. There's no reason why a ridge won't eventually pop up ahead of it either. One thing that has my attention is the strength of the ridge upstream in Alaska. These heights and 850 temps (6 C) are pretty decent for up there. These features should allow the cold air to dive almost due south from the polar regions. This combined with the well advertised polar outbreak, and possible ridging along the east coast, and a high building south from western Canada should allow this system to have very strong baroclinicity and cyclogenesis . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 One thing that has my attention is the strength of the ridge upstream in Alaska. These heights and 850 temps (6 C) are pretty decent for up there. These features should allow the cold air to dive almost due south from the polar regions. This combined with the well advertised polar outbreak, and possible ridging along the east coast, and a high building south from western Canada should allow this system to have very strong baroclinicity and cyclogenesis . This ridge does shift to create a favorable setup if you look beyond 84 on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This ridge does shift to create a favorable setup if you look beyond 84 on the GFS. Question... Why do you quote your own posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This ridge does shift to create a favorable setup if you look beyond 84 on the GFS. Are the teleconnections in our favor? I know the nao is weakening but what exactly does the pna do for us? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Question... Why do you quote your own posts? Was explaining my thinking with regard to the post from powerball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Well, we now know the Detroit area isn't getting jack with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This ridge does shift to create a favorable setup if you look beyond 84 on the GFS. I'll take the "expect the worst and be pleasantly surprised" outlook on this one. It's still bordering fantasy range after all, and Mr. Bomb Everything Out And Torch Everyone Ahead Of It (GGEM) hasn't made his debut yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Are the teleconnections in our favor? I know the nao is weakening but what exactly does the pna do for us? Thanks in advance I believe a +PNA/-AO/NAO combo would be ok, but we definitely could have better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 00Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I've already resigned the 'arctic usher' (as it should be called), for MN and the dakotas....most of the rest of us will see some version of slop or rain to snow changeover. Less frozen the more east. After that, cold air blasts in for 2 or 3 days, moderates, heads east and a more typical La Nina pattern kicks in with storms traversing the northern tier of the country to close out the last half of January. Oh, and the cold will not be nearly as brutal as advertised at times over the last couple weeks...save the upper midwest. That's my story, i'm sticking with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I've already resigned the 'arctic usher' (as it should be called), for MN and the dakotas....most of the rest of us will see some version of slop or rain to snow changeover. Less frozen the more east. After that, cold air blasts in for 2 or 3 days, moderates, heads east and a more typical La Nina pattern kicks in with storms traversing the northern tier of the country to close out the last half of January. Oh, and the cold will not be nearly as brutal as advertised at times over the last couple weeks...save the upper midwest. That's my story, i'm sticking with it I'm sticking with below normal temps and dry.. last 2 days have been a pleasant surprise though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 00Z GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ggem finally looks like a decent snow event but it will change im sure. at least the models seem to all be latching on to this general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 00Z GGEM: The thing I would be watching would be the piece coming out of the gulf, with the front moving eastward like it is and the amount of cold air behind it could really be a big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm gonna ask baro how pumped he is for this front along with the blizzard potential across a large portion of the upper midwest, first time being up here with such a prospect. Should be quite a beast with the pv pushing south and the southeast ridge coming up to make for a huge baroclinic zone along with the mid level pv to make for a monster low that strengthens as it moves northeast and the strength of the waa and caa is going to make this a monster storm with some extreme wind when you consider the background pressure associated with the high and the pv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I love the torch system following this one on the ECMWF. +8 850's, 60F DP's into S. Illinois and 60F 2M temps up to LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I love the torch system following this one on the ECMWF. +8 850's, 60F DP's into S. Illinois and 60F 2M temps up to LAF. Let me guess Minneapolis blizzard, I guess we just cant get a storm around here... Either east or west of us :/.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I guess the Euro is advertising another January thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Not really a blizzard. EURO has a sub 996 MB LOW in S. WI at 228. Not one area of LT-MOD precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm gonna ask baro how pumped he is for this front along with the blizzard potential across a large portion of the upper midwest, first time being up here with such a prospect. Should be quite a beast with the pv pushing south and the southeast ridge coming up to make for a huge baroclinic zone along with the mid level pv to make for a monster low that strengthens as it moves northeast and the strength of the waa and caa is going to make this a monster storm with some extreme wind when you consider the background pressure associated with the high and the pv. We will have to see how the S/W comes in, what amplitude, and what orientation. Personally, I would like to see a sharper ejecting shortwave and/or a more amplified wave situated a tad N. A better "phase" with the second weak wave off the W coast would help a lot. As is now, GFK would probably see an outside shot of blizzard conditions, but nothing extreme. Taking the GFS solution verbatim, I would like to see one intense S/W eject and perhaps a tad north for up there. As is, the main low level baroclinic zone is shunted too far S from there, and the low level mass response will be as well. Low level mixing potential would suggest 35-40 kts MAX to mix--with is nothing to scoff at, but in general I would like to see much more. The short duration doesn't help. Blizzard conditions would easily be met outside of town, but inside is a different story and dependent on how much new fluff falls. The most epic blizzard of my life up there. A 24 hour beast with winds gusting straight from the N at 50+ for 12+ hours, 6-12" new fluff, less than 1/4 SM vis for much of the duration. It was insanity. http://www.meteo.psu...08/us1215j3.php GFK is CLOSE though. More amplitude or a stronger jet max situated a tad N could turn this into a monster quickly given the very non-linear cyclogenesis potential with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Way too early to be sweating too many details, but the 06Z GFS was close to being epic if it was able to phase that migratory S/W off the West Coast. Honestly I like the looks of the 06Z GFS better than the 0Z and such a solution on its own would be a heck of an arctic front. If it linked up with that wave, the eventual trough ejecting into the plains would be more amplified with a sharper leading edge S/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Let me guess Minneapolis blizzard, I guess we just cant get a storm around here... Either east or west of us :/.. If you wanna be silly enough to even THINK of taking longrange models verbatum...heres one for the better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If you wanna be silly enough to even THINK of taking longrange models verbatum...heres one for the better... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Next Saturday.: Question is: What kind of precip..... Temps are cold all through the week, so my guess would be snow, but with this being 7 days out, I am sure by Monday the GFS and everything else will be showing warmer temps for the end of the week, and we wind up with rain, and not snow.... The low is quite far north, my question is, how much warm air does this thing advect? Is there a GOM connection? (I would assume, since the qpf in the above from is .25-.5, GOM moisture is probably a given). We have got freezing, or below freezing temps ahead of this thing all week.. With .37 qpf to work with over NE IL, and temps in the 20's with 10-15:1 ratios, we could be looking at a decent snowfall of 4"-8"... Unless, of course, I am misreading everything... Edit: I took a look at the 850, 700, and 500 temp maps..upper levels showing -2 to -6 at the 850's, -6 to -10 at the 700's and around -20 at the 500's. Now, are those temps in degrees celsius, and -6 is 6 degrees C below freezing? (Need a temp converter) Well, it "looks" cold in the upper levels, but winds at the 850's and the 500's are WSW, with a 55 kt? jet over N IL... Trying to figure out what all of this means so I can construct a better picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Next Saturday.: Question is: What kind of precip..... Temps are cold all through the week, so my guess would be snow, but with this being 7 days out, I am sure by Monday the GFS and everything else will be showing warmer temps for the end of the week, and we wind up with rain, and not snow.... The low is quite far north, my question is, how much warm air does this thing advect? Is there a GOM connection? (I would assume, since the qpf in the above from is .25-.5, GOM moisture is probably a given). We have got freezing, or below freezing temps ahead of this thing all week.. With .37 qpf to work with over NE IL, and temps in the 20's with 10-15:1 ratios, we could be looking at a decent snowfall of 4"-8"... Unless, of course, I am misreading everything... Edit: I took a look at the 850, 700, and 500 temp maps..upper levels showing -2 to -6 at the 850's, -6 to -10 at the 700's and around -20 at the 500's. Now, are those temps in degrees celsius, and -6 is 6 degrees C below freezing? (Need a temp converter) Well, it "looks" cold in the upper levels, but winds at the 850's and the 500's are WSW, with a 55 kt? jet over N IL... Trying to figure out what all of this means so I can construct a better picture. Well, the way the stupid pattern has been this winter, that will probably mean the low strengthening in Wisconsin with increasing southerly winds sweeping into the Great Lakes with lots of RAIN in MICHIGAN. The Michigan motto this year is "expect the worst" when it comes to good snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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