burgertime Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Thanks for the info guys, guess it ultimately comes down to one run of the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I just think the better resolution of the euro makes it the one to pay attention to at this point. The GFS has been wonky for a while. Cheez, can you look at the sounding for Gainesville and Athens at that same time frame please? Just curious how far north that might go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Im not good at soundings so what would this mean? This for Greenville, AL by the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well, we are getting very close to being within 72 hours right ? 40% chance of precip here on Sunday afternoon. For the start of the event in GA/AL it is, but for those in NC its about 96 to 120 hours out still and it looks like it's struggling in this range. The NAM is colder than the GFS at 850mb and that makes sense given the setup, and the Euro looks like the NAM so I think the GFS is shearing out the southern vort too quickly, which is a common bias it has. Georgia and Alabama is looking good for a major SN event, and some areas will get a crippling ice storm of either sleet or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Im not good at soundings so what would this mean? This for Greenville, AL by the way That sounding is a classic freezing rain sounding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 For the start of the event in GA/AL it is, but for those in NC its about 96 to 120 hours out still and it looks like it's struggling in this range. The NAM is colder than the GFS at 850mb and that makes sense given the setup, and the Euro looks like the NAM so I think the GFS is shearing out the southern vort too quickly, which is a common bias it has. Georgia and Alabama is looking good for a major SN event, and some areas will get a crippling ice storm of either sleet or freezing rain. Ok, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Im not good at soundings so what would this mean? This for Greenville, AL by the way That's your classic 32.5 degree rainstorm. You start out a touch below freezing at the surface, but 850mb temps of nearly 10C and latent heat release of what tiny amount that might initially freeze would ultimately lead to the 32.5 rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That sounding is a classic freezing rain sounding! (deep voice) noooooooooooooo!!!!!!! (dramatic music plays) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 (deep voice) noooooooooooooo!!!!!!! (dramatic music plays) For those occasions where modeling does not go your way on a solution: http://nooooooooooooooo.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That's your classic 32.5 degree rainstorm. You start out a touch below freezing at the surface, but 850mb temps of nearly 10C and latent heat release of what tiny amount that might initially freeze would ultimately lead to the 32.5 rainstorm. It could warm up the surface, it depends on how close to the event ending he is and what precip rates are like. With light precip rates the latent heat release would be much less and the surface could hover in the 31-32 range resulting in some slow ice accrual. If it is heavy or moderate precip falling, latent heat release would definitely warm it up to above freezing at the surface. Also depends on the track and strength of the low, the NAM seems a little colder than the GFS so a lot of things need to play out. Point is, this guy is right on the border of a potential ice storm so he needs to pay careful attention to soundings and future model runs and trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I love how the GFS is wrong always when it shows a crappy solution, but it can be 10 days away and show a good one and it most likely needs to be watched. The Euro is leaving it's high-resolution advantage as we get closer and the GFS becomes more accurate. Sure, it's the 18z but I've learned that the 18z isn't always a messed up run compared to others. It could just be the only model locking onto something more accurate, or it really could just be too weak. I will stop putting so much into the Euro starting tomorrow night after the 0z runs and pay very close attention to the NAM & GFS, and ultimately the RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I know some people might be mad at me but im hoping for a slight, slight south trend so we in South Alabama and Northern Florida could get some snow. I'm with you - don't see it happening, but "Hail Mary, full of grace ..." "Run me out in the cold rain and snow, rain and snow ..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Compared to the previous run on 12z, 18z appears to be a tad further east with the heavier precipitation along the SC coast instead of central GA and a tad warmer at 96...At least the way I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Thats about the way I interpreted it Gaston.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoebuck Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Even though the storm is 3 days away, looks like all the TV mets in the GSP market as well as the GSP Weather Service Office, are on board with a significant winter storm for the upstate. I can't recall them hyping a storm this far out. Amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS is really not alone in the sense it dampens out the lead wave at the end. All the models are doing that. It's just doing it the most which makes sense as it has a tendency to shear out southern stream systems to fast. If you look at the gfs and euro aloft, there are not a lot of differences except for this. THe trend IMO will favor a stronger system as we head closer, though. all of the models have trended the sfc low weaker today, including the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Even though the storm is 3 days away, looks like all the TV mets in the GSP market as well as the GSP Weather Service Office, are on board with a significant winter storm for the upstate. I can't recall them hyping a storm this far out. Amazing! I think the GSP is jumping the gun a bit, but I personally think they are right. This storm is still in the "potential" category, but there's a good chance it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 all of the models have trended the sfc low weaker today, including the Euro it's 4 days out dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is about the same time frame the Euro started "losing" the Christmas storm and everyone started panicking. Let's see what tomorrow's runs tell us and which way they trend because there is still a long way to go for those in NC/SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm thinking this 18Z GFS is somehow screwed up - the 6Z and 12Z had us cold way down here all the way out; this one has us blow-torched after 180 until .... We'll see .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 How is GSP jumping the gun?? I don't think so one bit. IMO my "GOLDEN RULE" for my purpose on TV is too warn the public of the potential of BAD weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What is lost? It is the 18 gfs. Also, gsp made mention to the 1988 storm and the slp being weak. No sweat here This is about the same time frame the Euro started "losing" the Christmas storm and everyone started panicking. Let's see what tomorrow's runs tell us and which way they trend because there is still a long way to go for those in NC/SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 How is GSP jumping the gun?? I don't think so one bit. IMO my "GOLDEN RULE" for my purpose on TV is too warn the public of the potential of BAD weather. I think because we are still 80 or more hours out. Things could change alot, and quickly. But like I said, I think the chances of this actually happening are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Even though the storm is 3 days away, looks like all the TV mets in the GSP market as well as the GSP Weather Service Office, are on board with a significant winter storm for the upstate. I can't recall them hyping a storm this far out. Amazing! Yay for more Upstate posters!!! I have family in Roebuck so post often! GSP has pulled the 1988 trigger. THIS ISBEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE THE JANUARY 1988 SNOW STORM WHERE A WEAK LOWPRESSURE MOVED THROUGH THE GULF AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ISENTROPICLIFT REMAINED OVER THE AREA...EVEN THO SYNOPTIC LIFT WAS WEAK. THISPRODUCED A LARGE AREA OF 1 FOOT ACCUMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAYWHETHER THIS MUCH SNOW DEVELOPS...HOWEVER IT IS IN THE REALM OFPOSSIBILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 How is GSP jumping the gun?? I don't think so one bit. IMO my "GOLDEN RULE" for my purpose on TV is too warn the public of the potential of BAD weather. How about you replace Glen B.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 We have had a good trend going and one goofy model run doesn't change that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 How about you replace Glen B.? Glenn Burns will be there until he retires. No way WSB has enough guts to fire someone who's been there 30 years. Plus, even though he often doesn't know what he's talking about, he's pretty popular in Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 We have had a good trend going and one goofy model run doesn't change that yet. Yeah, and plus its the 18z GFS. Really only the 00z and 12z are good runs, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 it's 4 days out dude I understand, and this can easily shift back northward and trend stronger, but the strong agreement among the models all the way down to the QPF output makes me pause for a second. Just feeling a little skeptical today. The 0z models may start to point the way of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah, and plus its the 18z GFS. Really only the 00z and 12z are good runs, IMO. The 6z is just fine too, the 18z just has a little less data. side note: did the ggem precip site work for anyone else outside 51 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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