Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,510
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Toothache
    Newest Member
    Toothache
    Joined

NYC/PHL Jan 11-14 Threat Potential


am19psu

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 385
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I should correct myself and better explain myself...from pa south ,temps bout 30-40.. ny north, mostly all lower 30's.. warm up, not a torch. but this is in response the the euro positoning the PV north of Montana and creating a lake cutter .. its all subject to change in the long term.. (200hrs+)

Thanks Irishbri

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks Irishbri

Well if this cutter materializes, we could easily have a major arctic outbreak right after that. Some were referencing that the NAO temporarily goes positive before it crashes again. Could be the arctic outbreak comes after whatever warm up we have.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wasn't there talk about a massive cold snap for the area? Record low temperatures and such I could have swore about this but looking at the temps it dosen't get all that cold.

I have been watching the temps in northern and central

Canada and for this time of year they haven't been that cold. There should be some -45 to -50s showing up for a true arctic outbeak.

That warm pocket in eastern Canada seems to be inhibiting any large scale cooling in Canada. This seems to be due to the blocking that has retrograded further west.

sfc_con_temp_na.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

in my opinion, we need the s/w to slow up a bit and wait for the trough (northern stream) on the GFS

the ridge out west is pretty good, just shift the axis alittle to the east to sharpen up the trough

i think the gfs is just starting to get a handle on all of the features and it will start to show hits in future runs :snowman:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This could be a slow mover. Possible weak or moderate SLP but high QPF scenario if we get moisture far enough NW.

Agreed and theres plenty of time and I think we're in the same boat this time its either snow or no (out to sea missing us). Areas from NC, VA into MD looks to have an increasing threat. Wheres the old northward trends. I dont think weve seen them since the 08/09 winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I mentioned a couple of days ago how the preceeding setup to this event reminded me of 2/6/10. This also has some similarities to 12/19/09.

I'm already getting excited. The signals look great.

Doug do you mean the storm for next week?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Absolutely thrilled with what I'm seeing on most modeling right now for this period. That is a setup conducive to a potential big winter storm in the mid atlantic and northern mid atlantic as well.

Im getting a feeling we're going to see something amazing on tonight's 0z runs-- we just have to get them to hold lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agreed and theres plenty of time and I think we're in the same boat this time its either snow or no (out to sea missing us). Areas from NC, VA into MD looks to have an increasing threat. Wheres the old northward trends. I dont think weve seen them since the 08/09 winter.

Southern stream plus very loose height gradient leaves a lot of wiggle room to the north.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Geez, you guys are acting like it's 90/10 we're going to get a KU storm, when in actuality, it's about 10/90. Look where the ridge is out west, look how much ridging there is out in front, look when and where the H5 low cuts off. This has a TON of work to do before you can start throwing around 12/16/09 and 2/6/10.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...