October 2026 Medium/Long Range

[Weather Will]

WB 9Z NBM: models went south overnight...

[stormy]

The AI models have shifted north since yesterday afternoon . For Augusta, 3 pm Wednesday was .30". At 6 am today is .88".    As a result, the WPC has shifted from .35" to 1.00"

Its easy to see that the WPC is biased toward AI.

[WxUSAF]

6z euro ai continues back north. Almost looks like the runs a couple days ago now with over 1” for DC

[yoda]

Looking like first frost/freeze potential next week west of BR

[Ji]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

6z euro ai continues back north. Almost looks like the runs a couple days ago now with over 1” for DC

most of the precip from the Euro is Friday night and Saturday smh. Its been very aggressive with Saturday

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

most of the precip from the Euro is Friday night and Saturday smh. Its been very aggressive with Saturday

HRRR hardly shows anything in same time period

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

6z euro ai continues back north. Almost looks like the runs a couple days ago now with over 1” for DC

6z Eps

[mitchnick]

Wasn't the EuroAi and Eps combo the winning team over the weekend? 

[frd]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Wasn't the EuroAi and Eps combo the winning team over the weekend? 

I know Ai was.  

[mitchnick]

From the bottom of the barrel, the Icon ensembles. 

[WxUSAF]

33 minutes ago, Ji said:

most of the precip from the Euro is Friday night and Saturday smh. Its been very aggressive with Saturday

Yeah it really likes the overnight Friday Into Saturday rain. Kinda the only model showing that. Not even AI is as enthusiastic.

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Wasn't the EuroAi and Eps combo the winning team over the weekend? 

Yeah it really led the way on the nor’easter.

[mitchnick]

Practicing for winter. Ukie ensembles. 

[Ji]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah it really likes the overnight Friday Into Saturday rain. Kinda the only model showing that. Not even AI is as enthusiastic.

Yeah it really led the way on the nor’easter.

the NAM3K jumped on board with the euro

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

the NAM3K jumped on board with the euro

Enjoy it for now. It's gone after tomorrow. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I was going to say, I haven't seen this much activity non Winter since 2005 lol

[MillvilleWx]

The EC-AIFS has the best verification of the 5H pattern of any model right now. Precipitation coverage is good, but magnitude is too light within convective schemes. It is actually solid with handling more synoptic-based, stratiform-centric precipitation magnitudes. That's one of the reasons WPC uses it a lot in their model blends. It would be a disservice not to. ML guidance is the new wave inside 72 hrs right now, but you really have to utilize a good blend to get the best result for QPF distribution. 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The EC-AIFS has the best verification of the 5H pattern of any model right now. Precipitation coverage is good, but magnitude is too light within convective schemes. It is actually solid with handling more synoptic-based, stratiform-centric precipitation magnitudes. That's one of the reasons WPC uses it a lot in their model blends. It would be a disservice not to. ML guidance is the new wave inside 72 hrs right now, but you really have to utilize a good blend to get the best result for QPF distribution.