E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2026 Obs/Discussion

[The Iceman]

CMC and GFS took a step towards the EE solution but it's crazy how far off they remain from the euro/icon/NAM. Euro leading the way would be quite the coup, no other model was even close at day 4. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

CMC and GFS took a step towards the EE solution but it's crazy how far off they remain from the euro/icon/NAM. Euro leading the way would be quite the coup, no other model was even close at day 4. 

I wonder if the NAM is having it's mid-winter moment wrt putting the low center over the convection which is closer to the coast? Most likely overdone but who can say for sure. The 3k is scary if you loop it. That deep low is taking a hard left at the end and hurricane force winds arent far off the coast.

[Joshb32689]

We’re wrapping up a trip down south. It’s been a chilly, breezy day. Ready to follow this storm home tomorrow night. Some interesting solutions on the table for this weekend.

[Mikeymac5306]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Im going to go ahead and say it....*IF* the Euro, and the NAM particularly have the right idea, this will be top 3 storm for NJ. 1 of course Sandy which most of us will never see again in our lifetimes, 2 being Ash Wednesday 1962. This could easily be #3. Just my wag attm based solely on NAM/Euro combo

  That 62 storm obliterated the Delmarva beaches (Rehoboth, Bethany, etc.) The pictures of the Henlopen Hotel falling into the Atlantic with the rest of the Boardwalk were insane! 

[Ralph Wiggum]

New euro ai track is sandy-esque with that hard left turn...N part of NJ in a bad spot, S NJ would probably get the saving grace of an offshore wind component.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Euro Op doubles down...holy smokes! Thats worst case scenario for S NJ right there with the prolonged onshore flow, full moon, and system retrograding to the West. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Im going to go ahead and say it....*IF* the Euro, and the NAM particularly have the right idea, this will be top 3 storm for NJ. 1 of course Sandy which most of us will never see again in our lifetimes, 2 being Ash Wednesday 1962. This could easily be #3. Just my wag attm based solely on NAM/Euro combo

Don't forget about the Blizzard of 1993. I would put that at #2 in my lifetime, since I was born in 1988.

[hazwoper]

4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro Op doubles down...holy smokes! Thats worst case scenario for S NJ right there with the prolonged onshore flow, full moon, and system retrograding to the West. 

That’s awful 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, hazwoper said:

That’s awful 

Time for a Whopper "value" meal. Thanks for the reminder @hazwoper

[coastal front]

Trend today has been for the storm to not only move closer to the coast but father south as well. Not great if anyone was hoping for switch to an offshore flow by Saturday Sunday. Yikes  

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I have a flight at PHL on Saturday night to Italy. I hope the storm holds off until at least then. If it doesn't, I might be stuck there for a while.

[Birds~69]

52F/DP 46F at 5:30am...windy day coming up.

[Lady Di]

Picked the wrong weekend to go down to the bay and close the cottage for the season. Ugh.  Forecast changed daily and who would have thunk another left hook? I have most things already inside so will go down tonight and get the rest in before the rain.  Daughter will be there so we'll just hangout.  Only see a small craft advisory posted, but will see what the winds do there.

Edited to add:  This is the Elk River across from Turkey Point.