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Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer


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Perfection! :thumbsup:

Friday
Sunny, with a high near 72. Northwest wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 41. North wind 5 to 7 mph.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Calm wind.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Calm wind.
Sunday
Showers, mainly after 9am. High near 58. South wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday Night
Showers, mainly before midnight. Low around 47. Light north wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Monday
Partly sunny, with a high near 63. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 56. Northeast wind 8 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Northeast wind 7 to 9 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. East wind 11 to 14 mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. Northeast wind around 8 mph.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.
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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Perfection! :thumbsup:

Friday
Sunny, with a high near 72. Northwest wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 41. North wind 5 to 7 mph.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Calm wind.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Calm wind.
Sunday
Showers, mainly after 9am. High near 58. South wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday Night
Showers, mainly before midnight. Low around 47. Light north wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Monday
Partly sunny, with a high near 63. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 56. Northeast wind 8 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Northeast wind 7 to 9 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. East wind 11 to 14 mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. Northeast wind around 8 mph.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.

Sunday is perfection?

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3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Perfection! :thumbsup:

Friday
Sunny, with a high near 72. Northwest wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 41. North wind 5 to 7 mph.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Calm wind.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Calm wind.
Sunday
Showers, mainly after 9am. High near 58. South wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday Night
Showers, mainly before midnight. Low around 47. Light north wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Monday
Partly sunny, with a high near 63. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 56. Northeast wind 8 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Northeast wind 7 to 9 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. East wind 11 to 14 mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. Northeast wind around 8 mph.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.

I wouldn't call it perfection but it's better than it was. Hate losing Sunday.

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On 9/16/2026 at 8:48 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks frigid. Bundle up in the precinct 

IMG_5126.png

Now we are seeing 14-day forecasts?  Yes, I know AccuWx has had even further for some time, but it just shows you how ppl keep trying to one-up each other when the fcst science simply does not support it or has advanced.  Like one could tell w/ *any* real skill the temp would be exactly 70 on day 14.

Also, "pattern predictions?"  It's a freakin' wx forecast!  Call it as such!  Branding marketing, nothing more.  Ooo, wait, alliteration, that's KEWL!  It reminds me how on some radio stations in BOS a number of years ago, the "news" suddenly became, "what's trending!"  Doublespeak!

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On 9/16/2026 at 11:48 AM, weatherwiz said:

We'll have to see if anything develops. It's been humorous at times with the GFS and its fantasy canes even some other long-range guidance at times trying to develop stuff...almost like because "there has to be something". Even this I think is way overdone. 

What I think could happen though is there may be brief periods of small geo-spatial areas where conditions are favorable and if a wave hits these areas it might form into something but any life span is going to be very short-lived. 

@CoastalWxcalls the recent wx in the NEUS "boring?"  He has no context of the word apparently.  Try the current Atlantic hurricane season out for size.  :D

And you know this record inactivity is squashing ratings for places like TWC and stations in the South.  Relying on wx for consistent ratings is foolhardy.  I recall the 96-97 winter, marketing and execs at many stations along the E Coast seemed "shocked" ratings were not like the previous winter.  Clueless.

IMG_7721.png

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On 9/16/2026 at 1:50 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a torch in the other deep layer synoptic metrics ... just not at the surface.

It's unusual to have 590 dm non-hydrostats and keep it less than 80 in an offshore flow.

I've actually seem this sort of oddity with increasing frequency in recent years.   Not sure if it's a Gretta or not but ... it's when non-hydrostats and even the hydrostatic heights (thickness) are elevated enough for very warm (relative to season...) yet the surface is some significantly blunted below the potential. 

The lower troposphere is oddly lagging behind the mid/upper air sounding.  interesting

A common fallacy I see on many social media posts is that they show the 500 mb heights and its anomalies as always "hot."  500 heights only serve as a *proxy*, and we do not live at 500 mb.  What is the sfc pressure and 1000-500 thickness?  What is the nature of the air mass and 925 temps?  Also, the location of interest, where is it relative to the ridge center?
 

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On 9/16/2026 at 9:13 PM, kdxken said:

 

Time to nit...

1) "North East"??
2) 55N/Gulf of AK is not "Arctic"
3) "new Polar stream high" - random improper capitalization

It's bad enough you have all these "social-meteorologists" who lack basic wx knowledge, but add on sloppiness in their actual wording in posts?

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On 9/16/2026 at 9:51 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Floyd wasn’t a huge deal imby, but it’s my earliest tropical impact memory. I remember the wind blowing hard when we were outside during recess and power going out at school—the first and only time that happened to me.

I remember being glued to TWC as it came up the coast and overhead. The moon was out as the decaying center passed. Those were good days. 

 

They had "SKEWL" that day?  After Andrew and esp. the Bliz of 93, the wx hype train has arrived for good, and you'd think a HU as intense as Floyd coming up the coast (yes, I know it weakened a lot, but that's not how the media acts!), across the board cancellations!  Any tropical watches or warmings, the do not hesitate these days!  I thought by 1999 that would have been the case as well.

When TS David impacted New England in early Sep 1979, schools were not closed that day.  Even though it was way W tracking up through cntrl NY, it was the best TC duration wind I have ever seen in New England outside a HU landfall, and surprising windy all the way to ern MA w/ gusts to 70-75 mph.  I recall how windy it was at recess, and how much stronger the winds were second recess!  And the trees whipping right next to the recess area. Branches could have easily fallen on us!

And its turns out my observations from that event had something behind it.  Check this paper out.
Not you typical evolution for a TC at this latitude! @weatherwiz be like, "WE NEED THIS AGAIN!!!"

Postlandfall Tropical Cyclone Reintensification in a Weakly Baroclinic Environment: A Case Study of Hurricane David (September 1979)
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/123/11/1520-0493_1995_123_3268_ptcria_2_0_co_2.xml

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