Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[CoastalWx]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s see how today can fail around this area .

Was never expected there really.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like Septorcher to start. Where are all the blues and fall weather?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like Septorcher to start. Where are all the blues and fall weather?

Guy I trust said after the first week of September.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Guy I trust said after the first week of September.

Tell Dick Tolleris he is incorrect 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tell Dick Tolleris he is incorrect 

Not him...you are obsessed with DT. 

Joe Karnik

[Chrisrotary12]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like Septorcher to start. Where are all the blues and fall weather?

 

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Guy I trust said after the first week of September.

This first week of September? 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not him...you are obsessed with DT. 

Joe Karnik

I just know how you closely follow all of DT stuff 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

 

This first week of September? 

AFTER the first week of September.

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I just know how you closely follow all of DT stuff 

I give it a cursory glance as I do the contributors on this site as far as the winter outlook goes....but personally, I'm not fond of his presentation.... has this way of going about it where as he never actually commits himself to anything, and I think his interpretation of ENSO leaves a great deal to be desired. He clings to these archaic, over simplified generalizations, such as "winter will rock if ENSO weakens quickly"...his understanding of ENSO is quite crude and not nuanced enough. 

It's apparent that he doesn't have a firm grasp of local climo when viewing his storm maps for the region.

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

 

This first week of September? 

Getting weather from app??

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

AFTER the first week of September.

I give it a cursory glance as I do the contributors on this site as far as the winter outlook goes....but personally, I'm not fond of his presentation.... has this way of going about it where as he never actually commits himself to anything, and I think his interpretation of ENSO leaves a great deal to be desired. He clings to these archaic, over simplified generalizations, such as "winter will rock if ENSO weakens quickly"...his understanding of ENSO is quite crude and not nuanced enough. 

It's apparent that he doesn't have a firm grasp of local climo when viewing his storm maps for the region.

Looks like post 10th back to normal temps. Doesn’t seem too cool, maybe a tad BN for a day or two. 

[Typhoon Tip]

HA ... the most "nuanced" understanding of ENSO is actually that its influence may be dwindling as an agency over winter patterns - that's what the very necessary evolution of RONI is all about.  Which is all ironic because that dwindle affects the "general" application - or should. 

What I mean by that, if RONI and CC are implicating less effective factorization, then logically the nuances go out with the bath water. 

I'm also suspecting a hesitation if not reticence to adapt to these fundamentals of changing factor-ability wrt the various input channels.  Part of that may be a state of the art needing to go up the learning curve .. but it also seems that there are those that have sort of   'institutionalized' a standard canvas upon which to draw long lead outlooks; if having to acquiesce to a notion that their canvas is thus torn/tearing, they're losing their ability to paint - the artistry suffers.  Some ego too

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/20/2026 at 11:21 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it's also possible to get too extreme in the other direction as far CC goes, and this isn't a slight at John..as I discussed last spring, I was actually guilty of that last winter and it ultimately served to tarnish what was an otherwise absolutely exemplary seasonal effort. It's crucial to find and maintain that balance between the synthesis of lessons learned to inform future efforts, while also appreciating that each individual season possesses important differences. I'm still trying to find my proverbial footing in that regard.

 

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

HA ... the most "nuanced" understanding of ENSO is actually that it's influence may be dwindling as an agency over winter patterns - that's what the very necessary evolution of RONI is all about.  Which is all ironically, because that dwindle affects the "general" application. 

What I mean by that, if RONI and CC are implicating less effective factorization, then logically the nuances go out with the bath water. 

I'm also suspecting a hesitation if not reticence to adapt to these fundamentals of changing factor-ability wrt the various input channels.  Part of that is may be learning curve .. but it also seems that there are those that have sort of   'institutionalized' a standard canvas for long lead outlooks, and if having to acquiesce to the notion that their canvas is torn, they're losing their ability to paint - and the artistry suffers.  Some ego too

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

If ever there were a season to be leery of disregarding ENSO in favor of CC-oriented conceptualizations, it's this one.

[Brewbeer]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Getting weather from app??

it's worth looking at multiple sources for forecasts and information 

comparing data makes it easier to figure out what's likely, what's possible, and what's BS

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, the latest CFS is how you watch 'ole man winter swallow a pistol.....brutal combination of east-based El Nino overlaid onto residual MC regime....look familiar?

It should-

Heh... @Typhoon Tip

[Typhoon Tip]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If ever there were a season to be leery of disregarding ENSO in favor of CC-oriented conceptualizations, it's this one.

I'm actually quite interested in the test for RONI

In physics, physicists are always chomping at the bit for natural extremes, because it is at the boundaries of what is conceived as possible, that the boundaries finally get to be tested.  

RONI isn't exactly an offset factor to the prior generational ENSO, whereby a laboratory test can be very readily examined (... droll understatement).    In fact, there is NO way to do that. It has to be tested by the vagarious doings of the wholesale atmospheric hemisphere(s) over time.  

This is one of those times. 

Agreed.  The extremeness of +ENSO definitely puts a plan in place that gives RONI ( I suspect...) it's best test to date.  If this were to say go over the unthinkable 3.5 ...then a 2.7 equivalent attack on the canonical climate pathways should be observable.   I mean if this ENSO gets out of whack and STILL there were comparatively/relatively minor impacts, then the amount of RONI's current importance/significance gets a side eye look as not being enough - and vice versa. etc

[Chrisrotary12]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

AFTER the first week of September

Ah! Didn’t know if that was for torch or blues and fall. Thanks for clarifying. 

[Chrisrotary12]

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Getting weather from app??

As opposed to twitter?

[SouthCoastMA]

Will finish August with just over 1" at 1.05". 

[Chrisrotary12]

12 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

it's worth looking at multiple sources for forecasts and information 

comparing data makes it easier to figure out what's likely, what's possible, and what's BS

 

Honestly, I used the weather app every day. Use it as a first glance. Then if I see anything of interest (such as today’s 45% of rain). I’ll actually look at a model. And then learn that the chance of rain or rather impactful rain is much lower. 

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm actually quite interested in the test for RONI

In physics, physicists are always chomping at the bit for natural extremes, because it is at the boundaries of what is conceived as possible, that the boundaries finally get to be tested.  

RONI isn't exactly an offset factor to the prior generational ENSO, whereby a laboratory test can be very readily examined (... droll understatement).    In fact, there is NO way to do that. It has to be tested by the vagarious doings of the wholesale atmospheric hemisphere(s) over time.  

This is one of those times.  Agreed.  The extremeness of +ENSO definitely puts a plan in place that gives RONI ( I suspect...) it's best test to date.  If this were to say go over the unthinkable 3.5 ...then a 2.7 equivalent attack on the canonical climate pathways should be observable.   I mean if this ENSO gets out of whack and STILL there were comparatively/relatively minor impacts, then the amount of RONI's current importance/significance gets a side eye look as not being enough - and vice versa. etc

Same here.

I've been wanting to dig into this more too but I'm really curious as to the LA Nina events of 2017-2018, 2020-2021, and 2021-2022...for some reason these seasons exhibit some larger spread in the trimonthly numbers versus the traditional ONI and ENS-ONI. Even 2025-2026 I think had this to some degree. 

[weatherwiz]

The slight east has been expanded eastward. Will be a fun day into MA/CT 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

As opposed to twitter?

Well don’t Mets look at data and models ?

[Brewbeer]

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well don’t Mets look at data and models ?

most of the ones who post on here do

maybe the twitter Mets do too, but everyone knows that twitter is a megaphone for hype and incorrect information; users of that platform are encouraged to independently verify 

currently 73/70, may need to turn on the house ACs if the sun comes out

[Typhoon Tip]

40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well don’t Mets look at data and models ?

mmm no. 

If you don't know that Twitter does not veraciously provide "data" and "models", then you're in trouble. 

-obviously... 

Social media of any kind (really) does not provide veracious anything.  Yes, that includes us, here.  It's opinionized.  Ends veracity.  Sure, one can certainly "tentatively" trust some sources more than the others.  Yeah.  However, everything and anything still must be corroborated against what is known to be factual.

Digress:  the problem is:   that requires energy; that requires intelligence.   And these two are subjective of one another.  Low energy doesn't lend to intelligence. Stupidity emerges as a primary decision agency.   ...

Too much population exist now that has become lazy and dumb in their general approach/virtuosity of their daily lives. Thus, too little of either: low energy/will; lacking intelligence.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Re the Nepal disaster, if real this is something beyond nuts! stunning is more like it  

it doesn’t just overtop the dam … the dam, the entire facility, and the surrounding valley are all completely subsumed beneath 

https://www.instagram.com/p/DchKUP7En1N/?img_index=1

[weatherwiz]

Kind of surprised we don't have a marginal tomorrow. I guess that will come at 1730

[tamarack]

The 2 most recent events that promised widespread rain (a couple days prior to each) totaled 0.15" here, so I'm not very optimistic for today/tomorrow.  Probably just enough clouds to block our view of the lunar eclipse.  We're about 1-for-10 on lunars, usually due to clouds but sometimes because we don't care to get up at 2 AM to watch.  This one peaks here shortly after midnight.

[Typhoon Tip]

A little more encouraged re convection today as the orientation of the fields has a better change for residuals chugging E of the ignition region

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

A little more encouraged re convection today as the orientation of the fields has a better change for residuals chugging E of the ignition region

Agreed. Models too continuing to show enlarging of the hodographs through the day as well with decent instability.