July Medium/ Long Range

[Weather Will]

Looks like some spectacular, can I say late summer and early fall like weather for Th.  And Friday...  low dewpoints; and comfortable temps!    Lows in the upper 50s in NW areas Friday am! WB 18Z EURO.

 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS and EURO for midweek rain.

[Weather Will]

Latest WB EURO weeklies for August; no searing heat; precip. above normal in mountains/ southwest mid Atlantic.

[Weather Will]

Pretty spectacular midsummer weather over the next week after rain pushes off the coast tomorrow. WB 12Z EPS

[CAPE]

WB map inundation.

[frd]

[mitchnick]

21 hours ago, frd said:

El Niño summer from here on out.

[frd]

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

El Niño summer from here on out.

I can live with that. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 hours ago, mitchnick said:

El Niño summer from here on out.

We are mostly getting this cool down because of -NAO, and less to do with the Pacific (El Nino's greatest effect). There is a trough in the GOA for a little while, but it's still not canonical El Nino in the Pacific. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Something to look out for is how cool October usually is in El Nino

PDO has opposite correlation though, and it's strongest month of the year is October so we'll see how the battle of -PDO vs Super Nino goes, going forward. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

CPC says above average comes back

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Something to look out for is how cool October usually is in El Nino

PDO has opposite correlation though, and it's strongest month of the year is October so we'll see how the battle of -PDO vs Super Nino goes, going forward. 

Maybe in October on the day of peak leaf color we will get a big noreaster and it'll dump all the leaves in a couple hours.  I'd be for it if it means a couple inches of rain. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

August historically has a pretty good correlation with ENSO's peak later in the year. It's expected to become the strongest on record by Dec and here's the preceding Augusts:

There is some -NAO in the mix but right now it's looking like this usually highly correlated month will not be anything special below-average-wise. PNA has been negative 6 straight months including July, and that is the source of the problem. 

[frd]

13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

August historically has a pretty good correlation with ENSO's peak later in the year. It's expected to become the strongest on record by Dec and here's the preceding Augusts:

There is some -NAO in the mix but right now it's looking like this usually highly correlated month will not be anything special below-average-wise. PNA has been negative 6 straight months including July, and that is the source of the problem. 

Sept and October possibly both near to below average.  

[frd]

The rains keep arriving. 

 

[CAPE]

Pretty interesting h5 pattern setting up for the US will produce weather extremes. I'll take our area for this one.

WPC EFD-

...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Extreme heat will continue to make weather headlines across a large expanse of the country going into next week. Widespread upper 90s and low 100s are expected from Montana to the Dakotas, which is about 10-15 degrees above average. It will also be very hot and humid from Texas to the Gulf Coast states with highs ranging from 95 to 105 degrees on most days, with some areas of extreme HeatRisk given the longevity of the heat and expected heat indices exceeding 110 degrees at times. It will also be quite hot from the Desert Southwest and extending north across the Intermountain West with the upper ridge exerting its influence. Highs in the 110s to 120F in the hottest deserts of southern Arizona/southeastern California will only cool into the upper 80s to mid 90s at night. Farther north, temperatures near 100 degrees will be common over the Great Basin. Over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, upper troughing will favor near to below normal temperatures in the generally pleasant 70s/80s during the day and 50s/60s at night. An organized low pressure system crossing the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic region on Tuesday, in combination with an amplifying upper level shortwave trough, will fuel the development of numerous showers and storms from Virginia to New England. A risk of flash flooding is possible in the region Tuesday into Wednesday with a potential for 1 to 2+ inches of rainfall. There is also a threat of severe weather across portions of the Mid-Atlantic in the warm sector of the low pressure system. Damaging winds are the primary hazard with the strongest storms.

[CAPE]

100+ for Miles City Montana though next Saturday. It's that 'dry' heat though.

Currently 105 with a dp of 42

[mitchnick]

23 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

CPC says above average comes back

Only "leaning" AN, so even if right, possibly muted at times.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

100+ for Miles City Montana though next Saturday. It's that 'dry' heat though.

Currently 105 with a dp of 42

If I get into the 50s tonight, that will be something like 4/6 days in the 50s at the hottest time of year!

Also Billings, MT just hit 111 a few weeks ago, breaking their all time high of 108. 

[nw baltimore wx]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

100+ for Miles City Montana though next Saturday. It's that 'dry' heat though.

Currently 105 with a dp of 42

I’m heading to Spain for three weeks culminating with the eclipse in Mallorca. It’s going to be 100+ for the first week but I’m looking forward to a real feel less than actual temps.

[JenkinsJinkies]

16 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Only "leaning" AN, so even if right, possibly muted at times.

The shading represents the probability of AN temps, not the intensity of the anomaly.

[JenkinsJinkies]

14 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’m heading to Spain for three weeks culminating with the eclipse in Mallorca

Will you be doing the Tangier eclipse next year?

[nw baltimore wx]

37 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Will you be doing the Tangier eclipse next year?

It’s not on the books but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.

[frd]

Interesting  

 

[WxUSAF]

I’m not yet convinced we’ve turned the corner on the long term drought and that giga-Nino is kicking in precip-wise…but the evidence is building. I’ll have to see what august looks like. I’m feeling pretty sure that by mid/late September we’ll have turned the corner for good. At least until our next multi year Nina which starts next fall lol

[JenkinsJinkies]

58 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m not yet convinced we’ve turned the corner on the long term drought and that giga-Nino is kicking in precip-wise…but the evidence is building. I’ll have to see what august looks like. I’m feeling pretty sure that by mid/late September we’ll have turned the corner for good. At least until our next multi year Nina which starts next fall lol

There's a chance for another head fake then?

[WxUSAF]

58 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

There's a chance for another head fake then?

It’s just that it’s still convective season. I want to see some big synoptic rainers starting.

[stormy]

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s just that it’s still convective season. I want to see some big synoptic rainers starting.

Historically, there are wet Nino summers and historically there are dry Nino summers.

Strong Nino's (greater than =1.0)  almost always create a cold season robust subtropical jet which usually favors a wet cold season (mid October through February.)   Richmond has a higher probability of a wet winter than Staunton or Winchester,  80/60.   D.C. comes in at about 70%.  

[SnowenOutThere]

35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s just that it’s still convective season. I want to see some big synoptic rainers starting.

You know more than me of course, but I have to think we’re seeing the pattern shift happening. We’ve now had a string of strong lows move by to our north, which if it wasn’t mid summer and the thermal boundary wasn’t up in Canada they would be our synoptic rainfalls instead of convection along the cold front. Now this week looks to have a cutoff low over the northeast that dumps rain too. We still might have some dry periods but it seems, to me at least, the real drought period is over.