July Medium/ Long Range

[Weather Will]

Looks like some spectacular, can I say late summer and early fall like weather for Th.  And Friday...  low dewpoints; and comfortable temps!    Lows in the upper 50s in NW areas Friday am! WB 18Z EURO.

 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS and EURO for midweek rain.

[Weather Will]

Latest WB EURO weeklies for August; no searing heat; precip. above normal in mountains/ southwest mid Atlantic.

[Weather Will]

Pretty spectacular midsummer weather over the next week after rain pushes off the coast tomorrow. WB 12Z EPS

[CAPE]

WB map inundation.

[frd]

[mitchnick]

21 hours ago, frd said:

El Niño summer from here on out.

[frd]

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

El Niño summer from here on out.

I can live with that. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 hours ago, mitchnick said:

El Niño summer from here on out.

We are mostly getting this cool down because of -NAO, and less to do with the Pacific (El Nino's greatest effect). There is a trough in the GOA for a little while, but it's still not canonical El Nino in the Pacific. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Something to look out for is how cool October usually is in El Nino

PDO has opposite correlation though, and it's strongest month of the year is October so we'll see how the battle of -PDO vs Super Nino goes, going forward. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

CPC says above average comes back

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Something to look out for is how cool October usually is in El Nino

PDO has opposite correlation though, and it's strongest month of the year is October so we'll see how the battle of -PDO vs Super Nino goes, going forward. 

Maybe in October on the day of peak leaf color we will get a big noreaster and it'll dump all the leaves in a couple hours.  I'd be for it if it means a couple inches of rain. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

August historically has a pretty good correlation with ENSO's peak later in the year. It's expected to become the strongest on record by Dec and here's the preceding Augusts:

There is some -NAO in the mix but right now it's looking like this usually highly correlated month will not be anything special below-average-wise. PNA has been negative 6 straight months including July, and that is the source of the problem. 

[frd]

13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

August historically has a pretty good correlation with ENSO's peak later in the year. It's expected to become the strongest on record by Dec and here's the preceding Augusts:

There is some -NAO in the mix but right now it's looking like this usually highly correlated month will not be anything special below-average-wise. PNA has been negative 6 straight months including July, and that is the source of the problem. 

Sept and October possibly both near to below average.  

[frd]

The rains keep arriving. 

 

[CAPE]

Pretty interesting h5 pattern setting up for the US will produce weather extremes. I'll take our area for this one.

WPC EFD-

...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Extreme heat will continue to make weather headlines across a large expanse of the country going into next week. Widespread upper 90s and low 100s are expected from Montana to the Dakotas, which is about 10-15 degrees above average. It will also be very hot and humid from Texas to the Gulf Coast states with highs ranging from 95 to 105 degrees on most days, with some areas of extreme HeatRisk given the longevity of the heat and expected heat indices exceeding 110 degrees at times. It will also be quite hot from the Desert Southwest and extending north across the Intermountain West with the upper ridge exerting its influence. Highs in the 110s to 120F in the hottest deserts of southern Arizona/southeastern California will only cool into the upper 80s to mid 90s at night. Farther north, temperatures near 100 degrees will be common over the Great Basin. Over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, upper troughing will favor near to below normal temperatures in the generally pleasant 70s/80s during the day and 50s/60s at night. An organized low pressure system crossing the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic region on Tuesday, in combination with an amplifying upper level shortwave trough, will fuel the development of numerous showers and storms from Virginia to New England. A risk of flash flooding is possible in the region Tuesday into Wednesday with a potential for 1 to 2+ inches of rainfall. There is also a threat of severe weather across portions of the Mid-Atlantic in the warm sector of the low pressure system. Damaging winds are the primary hazard with the strongest storms.

[CAPE]

100+ for Miles City Montana though next Saturday. It's that 'dry' heat though.

Currently 105 with a dp of 42

[mitchnick]

23 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

CPC says above average comes back

Only "leaning" AN, so even if right, possibly muted at times.