July Medium/ Long Range

[Weather Will]

Looks like some spectacular, can I say late summer and early fall like weather for Th.  And Friday...  low dewpoints; and comfortable temps!    Lows in the upper 50s in NW areas Friday am! WB 18Z EURO.

 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS and EURO for midweek rain.

[Weather Will]

Latest WB EURO weeklies for August; no searing heat; precip. above normal in mountains/ southwest mid Atlantic.

[Weather Will]

Pretty spectacular midsummer weather over the next week after rain pushes off the coast tomorrow. WB 12Z EPS

[CAPE]

WB map inundation.

[frd]

[mitchnick]

21 hours ago, frd said:

El Niño summer from here on out.

[frd]

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

El Niño summer from here on out.

I can live with that. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 hours ago, mitchnick said:

El Niño summer from here on out.

We are mostly getting this cool down because of -NAO, and less to do with the Pacific (El Nino's greatest effect). There is a trough in the GOA for a little while, but it's still not canonical El Nino in the Pacific. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Something to look out for is how cool October usually is in El Nino

PDO has opposite correlation though, and it's strongest month of the year is October so we'll see how the battle of -PDO vs Super Nino goes, going forward. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

CPC says above average comes back

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Something to look out for is how cool October usually is in El Nino

PDO has opposite correlation though, and it's strongest month of the year is October so we'll see how the battle of -PDO vs Super Nino goes, going forward. 

Maybe in October on the day of peak leaf color we will get a big noreaster and it'll dump all the leaves in a couple hours.  I'd be for it if it means a couple inches of rain. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

August historically has a pretty good correlation with ENSO's peak later in the year. It's expected to become the strongest on record by Dec and here's the preceding Augusts:

There is some -NAO in the mix but right now it's looking like this usually highly correlated month will not be anything special below-average-wise. PNA has been negative 6 straight months including July, and that is the source of the problem. 

[frd]

13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

August historically has a pretty good correlation with ENSO's peak later in the year. It's expected to become the strongest on record by Dec and here's the preceding Augusts:

There is some -NAO in the mix but right now it's looking like this usually highly correlated month will not be anything special below-average-wise. PNA has been negative 6 straight months including July, and that is the source of the problem. 

Sept and October possibly both near to below average.