Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[Great Snow 1717]

12 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Having spent 9yrs in S FL I have a new appreciation for preparedness. Most folks (not all) had some sort of season storm kit with food and other supplies. All it’s going to take here is a strong Cat 1 or 2 and people will be out of power for a couple of weeks losing their shite on the power companies. We have have had significant tree growth since Gloria and Bob and many have not idea what widespread tree damage will look like. 

Falls under the heading of people being careful what they wish for. The impacts will be far greater and far more long lasting than they think it will be. 

Why anyone wants the devastation of a redux of 1938 is beyond me.

All I can say is some of them folk better have a plan in place to protect themselves, their families and their belongings..the hassle of finding people to repair the damage is going to pale in comparison to the protection aspect of the recovery....

 

[ineedsnow]

lots of clouds with convection rolling through the central part of the state

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When it happens ( and it will) and hopefully in my lifetime)…it is going to be a month or more in some places . If you throw a 1938.. or even a Connie or Diane or even a high end 1/ low end cat 2.. the damage will be catastrophic 

Another 1938 would leave some people w/o electricity for months.  Connie/Diane had incredible rain, especially in SNE, but I don't recall much wind in NNJ.  Floods kill and destroy but usually don't mess up the grid like wind/ice/Octobombs.

[Modfan2]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

Falls under the heading of people being careful what the wish for. The impacts will be far greater and far more long lasting than they think it will be. 

Why anyone wants the devastation of a redux of 1938 is beyond me.

All I can say is some of them folk better have a plan in place to protect themselves, their families and their belongings..the hassle of finding people to repair the damage is going to pale in comparison to the protection aspect of the recovery....

 

And the power companies can trim all around the lines, still can have a tree 40Ft take out the span. I spent 2 weeks in the FL Pan Handle for work doing recovery and breath taking what CAT 5 damage looks like. Having food for at least 2 weeks and tarps/plywood for roofs are some of the immediate needs. Dorian was 75 miles off our coast before turning, thought it was lights out with that one but thankfully we were spared. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

And the power companies can trim all around the lines, still can have a tree 40Ft take out the span. I spent 2 weeks in the FL Pan Handle for work doing recovery and breath taking what CAT 5 damage looks like. Having food for at least 2 weeks and tarps/plywood for roofs are some of the immediate needs. Dorian was 75 miles off our coast before turning, thought it was lights out with that one but thankfully we were spared. 

I know several families who moved back to New England after experiencing a hurricane while living in Florida..

People in New England are ill prepared for a direct hit from a strong hurricane. They talk tough but that toughness would vanish once they realize that an Oct snowstorm is a flurry when compared to a direct hit from a major hurricane

 

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Another 1938 would leave some people w/o electricity for months.  Connie/Diane had incredible rain, especially in SNE, but I don't recall much wind in NNJ.  Floods kill and destroy but usually don't mess up the grid like wind/ice/Octobombs.

Let’s see if we can gin one up this summer/ fall

[Layman]

14 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think the evidence grows that there is a population in NWS that just doesn’t like heat and doesn’t want to hear about it.  They lean less, and insults intelligence in a way, as tho we don’t see right through it…

They downplay it or mock it or do things like that because what’s really going on is their personal attitudes and perspectives overwhelm and it bleeds in - I get it no humans perfectly objective…

But it goes the other way too

I don’t care what these fucks feel  that don’t like hyperbole about heat and extremes tho.  

Guess what ? it is that bad and it needs to be hotly expressed no pun intended, because nobody is paying attention enough to what is clearly an existential threat.  We are in a physical mass extinction event, and there is no other culprit that science can physically connect that isn’tglobal warming.
Fuck it talking bricks

You didn't happen to teach Biology at Manchester Central HS in about 1990 or so did you?  I had a teacher there that was super passionate about all of this and would occasionally use us students as a captive audience to vent to.  Sounded just like this!   I recall this one time when he was on a tear, face getting more and more red as he went on, none of us saying anything and then that apparently pissed him off too so he lays into us with "Are you fkn listening to me!!!?!?!?"  We're all kind of like "Yeah, we really don't have a choice". There was this one skinhead kid in class though that piped up and said "Calm down dude!  You're losing it!"  Good times.  People definitely get passionate about topics they hold dear.

Fuck Central HS.

[weatherwiz]

I think tomorrow is going to be very close with BDL tying their all time record low. 

[Great Snow 1717]

24 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

And the power companies can trim all around the lines, still can have a tree 40Ft take out the span. I spent 2 weeks in the FL Pan Handle for work doing recovery and breath taking what CAT 5 damage looks like. Having food for at least 2 weeks and tarps/plywood for roofs are some of the immediate needs. Dorian was 75 miles off our coast before turning, thought it was lights out with that one but thankfully we were spared. 

I guarantee the vast majority of people here have never bothered to read the entirety of their home insurance policy....they will be surprised when they read the part about paying a certain percentage of the damage ...

How many home owners have flood insurance??

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, wx_observer said:

Don't see this too often:

Aroostook has seen a surprising number of tornados, considering it is far north and hilly.  The densest area for wind damage (tornado and straight line) seems to be the Fish River chain of lakes, Eagle, Square, Long.  In this century there have been damaging wind events - including tornados - from Oxbow to the town of Eagle Lake.  Public Lands had loggers salvage 1,900 cords from 60 acres south of Eagle Lake in 2005 and 3,000 acres in 2013 from a 200+-acre blowdown north of the lake. 
The granddaddy event was older, 600 acres Eagle to Square Lakes flattened by straight line wind on 9/30/1986.  The Bureau salvaged about 3,000 cords from 300 acres (not all were reached) and J.D. Irving salvaged at least as much on their half of the blowdown.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Let's say a 1938-style hurricane were to be possible (same track, strength, etc). There probably would be some people which take the threat seriously, however, I'm nervous the vast wouldn't. I would assume, however, mandatory evacuations would be ordered at least for the coast which would help but most people I would think probably evacuate inland, particularly if they have friends/family in-state. But I don't think how many people realize just how bad the power outages situation would be. This would be an order of magnitude (or two) greater than Oct. 2011. 80-90% of the state would be without power for weeks and a large portion of that probably at least a month and it could be longer if any substations are completely destroyed. From my understanding, much of the equipment is build overseas and you just can't fly that stuff over, its gotta be shipped by boat and that stuff takes time to build as well. Grocery stores will have generators but could end up being some shortages of food and even gas. It would be ugly 

I have no doubt that if we saw a repeat of 1938 in terms of track and intensity, people would take it seriously. Keep in mind, to get a major here you probably need it to be a high end 3 or more likely, Cat 4 off the NC coast (as 1938 was) and that alone would have people in a panic. It'd be the most hyped storm in history, with good reason. A bona fide major would be catastrophic depending on the track, even absent C3 sustained winds inland (which would be unlikely unless this is rocketing). 

Now that said, on this board? I already know how the run up would be. The first time the Euro kicks it at 144 with an over-zealous trough "she gone" would be the most popular phrase on the board. Followed by days and days of downplaying. Then complaining over the final track, which will shift 50 miles in the last 12 hours.  

42 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

And the power companies can trim all around the lines, still can have a tree 40Ft take out the span. I spent 2 weeks in the FL Pan Handle for work doing recovery and breath taking what CAT 5 damage looks like. Having food for at least 2 weeks and tarps/plywood for roofs are some of the immediate needs. Dorian was 75 miles off our coast before turning, thought it was lights out with that one but thankfully we were spared. 

Haven't seen a C5 yet, but I've seen a couple 4s, it's incredible.

In Helene, I regret not doing a U-Turn on the highway to get a photo but I saw a massive pine snapped at the base well inland. 

In Laura, the damage was staggering. 

Fiona--it wasn't officially a hurricane when it hit Nova Scotia but I was one of the first on the ground after it passed and produced that 97kt gust in Arisaig. The damage was incredible all the way back to New Brunswick. 

But folks should know that even lower end tropical can and will do big time damage. The October Cape Cod crusher a few years ago (eventually Wanda) did C1 damage through the region and it was big time. 

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s see if we can gin one up this summer/ fall

I'm not as bearish as I was a few weeks ago. Subtropics aren't as bad thermodynamically as they could be. 

But the wind shear and dry air with more frequent troughs later in the season will be an issue. The window is narrow, but probably the place where we're most likely to see activity. Doubt anything meaningful comes out of the MDR this year. 

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I have no doubt that if we saw a repeat of 1938 in terms of track and intensity, people would take it seriously. Keep in mind, to get a major here you probably need it to be a high end 3 or more likely, Cat 4 off the NC coast (as 1938 was) and that alone would have people in a panic. It'd be the most hyped storm in history, with good reason. A bona fide major would be catastrophic depending on the track, even absent C3 sustained winds inland (which would be unlikely unless this is rocketing). 

Now that said, on this board? I already know how the run up would be. The first time the Euro kicks it at 144 with an over-zealous trough "she gone" would be the most popular phrase on the board. Followed by days and days of downplaying. Then complaining over the final track, which will shift 50 miles in the last 12 hours.  

Haven't seen a C5 yet, but I've seen a couple 4s, it's incredible.

In Helene, I regret not doing a U-Turn on the highway to get a photo but I saw a massive pine snapped at the base well inland. 

In Laura, the damage was staggering. 

Fiona--it wasn't officially a hurricane when it hit Nova Scotia but I was one of the first on the ground after it passed and produced that 97kt gust in Arisaig. The damage was incredible all the way back to New Brunswick. 

But folks should know that even lower end tropical can and will do big time damage. The October Cape Cod crusher a few years ago (eventually Wanda) did C1 damage through the region and it was big time. 

I'm not as bearish as I was a few weeks ago. Subtropics aren't as bad thermodynamically as they could be. 

But the wind shear and dry air with more frequent troughs later in the season will be an issue. The window is narrow, but probably the place where we're most likely to see activity. Doubt anything meaningful comes out of the MDR this year. 

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What sticks out for me relates to a broader topic...

That's a pretty classic tripolar anomaly distribution, which is correlated well with -NAO

Now, at a 50, 000 foot linear correlation the -NAO is typically found during EC cane threats.  The reason can actually be summed up in one sentence:  -NAO means blocking at higher latitudes, which is all but required and prevents a Bahama routed cane from turning NE early.  Up they come...

But there's a caveat emptor:  ...the NAO is not persistent at seasonal scales.  So, merely noting the tripole mode isn't enough.  However, its presence means there's a propensity for waxing and waning of the negative mode.  If one is a cane/denudation of LI enthusiast ... replete with all the  sociopathic wanton of calamity ... ( LOL ), that is good news. Yay.  you at least have increased potential death and loss of property because the hemisphere is in a favorable super synoptic implication.