Winter 26-27’ Speculation Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Super Ninos are generally blowtorch for MBY.  Just interesting to see Cansips on the other side of the map.  It really likes a strong ridge out West for much of winter, but not a lot of analogs w/ strong Ninos support that feature.  However, I do think Tenn winters do kind of travel in packs as John notes.  It does seem of late that extreme cold finds its way here for 7-14 days at some point during the winter regardless of the pattern.  During the Nino winters of the 90s, it was like pulling teeth to get cold into those patterns.  We'll see!  Torch is probably the safe bet, but the Cansips has me looking over my shoulder.  It is a good model for seasonal forecasts, but by no means perfect.  The NAO is the trump card as well as the MJO which "could" support more convection over preferred MJO regions.

[Carvers Gap]

The other thing that I seem to notice during the past decade is that fall is just HOT.  It does seem like when we have endless summer...that the ensuing winter features severe cold at some point.  Why?  I suspect the mechanism which can create the extreme heat during fall also supports extreme cold during winter - strong amplification.   Short story...it seems like falls which have extreme heat feature strong amplification during winter at some point.  IMBY, it has been pretty rare to see endless summer lead to a non-winter.  

We will see if the CANSIPS sobers up by October.  Its October run often has some skill.