Winter 26-27’ Speculation Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Super Ninos are generally blowtorch for MBY.  Just interesting to see Cansips on the other side of the map.  It really likes a strong ridge out West for much of winter, but not a lot of analogs w/ strong Ninos support that feature.  However, I do think Tenn winters do kind of travel in packs as John notes.  It does seem of late that extreme cold finds its way here for 7-14 days at some point during the winter regardless of the pattern.  During the Nino winters of the 90s, it was like pulling teeth to get cold into those patterns.  We'll see!  Torch is probably the safe bet, but the Cansips has me looking over my shoulder.  It is a good model for seasonal forecasts, but by no means perfect.  The NAO is the trump card as well as the MJO which "could" support more convection over preferred MJO regions.

[Carvers Gap]

The other thing that I seem to notice during the past decade is that fall is just HOT.  It does seem like when we have endless summer...that the ensuing winter features severe cold at some point.  Why?  I suspect the mechanism which can create the extreme heat during fall also supports extreme cold during winter - strong amplification.   Short story...it seems like falls which have extreme heat feature strong amplification during winter at some point.  IMBY, it has been pretty rare to see endless summer lead to a non-winter.  

We will see if the CANSIPS sobers up by October.  Its October run often has some skill.

[*Flash*]

This might be the easiest winter for DT WxRisk. He can just leave the Heat Miser as his profile pic the whole winter. 

[John1122]

Fingers crossed....toes too.

 

Snow forecast difference this year vs what fell in 2025-26 through the end of February 2027.

The UK  Met Office seasonal Copernicus model, February not included. It's enthusiastic about January.

 

[GaWx]

 The updated monthly Euro seasonal forecast as of Sept 1st is due to be released tomorrow.

[nrgjeff]

I imagine seasonal models will start trending warmer. Right now we are before that infamous Halloween predictability barrier. Now models (as programmed) are amping up Nino response because Nino is on fire.

What's next? Warmer forecasts! ATMO has not followed teleconnections for years. First, the oceans are not absorbing heat. Marine heat waves are almost global. See Climate forum for more. Also the PDO remains out of whack. If we have warm Nino and -PDO it'll relentlessly flood the Lower 48 with mild air.

My forecast remains a top 10 warm winter. Warmest winter in recorded history is possible. 

[jaxjagman]

I still dont understand why people bring up analogs of the 2015 strong NINO.That was a early onset of NINO IN 2014 and during into 2015 seemingly the Walker Circulation got broke down and you saw stronger EWB'S off South America which caused this to be a West/Central based NINO,unlike this year or 82-97,it really has no resemblence

[*Flash*]

For those looking for some hope to cling to, I wouldn't sleep on 2009–10 as at least a partial analog. Obviously, the magnitude isn't comparable if 2026 continues toward the upper end of current forecasts, so I'm not arguing these are ENSO twins. But there are some interesting similarities in the evolution.

2009 transitioned fairly quickly out of La Niña/neutral conditions into a developing El Niño, with the atmosphere increasingly coupling during late summer/fall. By September 2009, we were seeing suppressed convection around Indonesia, anomalous convection farther east, and increasingly established low-level westerly wind anomalies. There are some similarities to what we're seeing now in the atmospheric response, even though 2026 is running much hotter.

What interests me more than matching Niño 3.4 numbers is where the forcing ultimately establishes itself and what kind of North American response we get from it. 2009–10 ultimately produced a very favorable southern storm track along with a much more cooperative high-latitude pattern. For those of us in the Tennessee Valley, that combination delivered a legitimately cold, snowy winter.

Obviously we can't analog the NAO/AO in September, and 2026 could evolve into something structurally quite different. But if the eastern-Pacific warmth becomes less dominant relative to continued central/east-central Pacific warming, and the tropical forcing/convection begins consolidating farther west, I think 2009–10 becomes increasingly interesting as a pattern/evolution analog, even if it's a poor magnitude analog.

So no, I'm not calling for a repeat of 2009–10. But I wouldn't toss it because this Niño is stronger, either. Analog the evolution and atmospheric response, not just the ONI. There may be more there than the raw ENSO numbers suggest.

Then again, hope floats.