TSSN+ Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago All I know is I want to be in one of the first one of these. “The National Weather Service will implement the use of “Particularly Dangerous Situation” wording in select Blizzard Warnings and Ice Storm Warnings this season. This language will help forecasters alert partners and the public about high-confidence blizzards or ice storms of historic severity. These rare events typically pose exceptional threats by posing imminent danger to life and unprecedented disruptions to emergency services.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: This is most likely an ignorant question but do we know if the seasonal models are advertising a permanent low or transient lows in that area? A low in the mean, so it doesn't guarantee a permanent low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Past does not necessarily correlate to future outcomes. But Chuck is 100% right about his observed flaw in the long range guidance. It wasn't just 2024, they did the same thing in 2019 also, continuously advertising a canonical nino look in the pacific that never actually materialized. That doesn't mean the same thing happens again, but it would be foolish to stick our heads in the sand bout that fact. Until we actually see a nino north pac pattern set in I would be skeptical also! I disagree with Chuck about the position of the N Pac low being fine if it's east based. But most won't want to hear this. He is right that if you run a mean of our biggest snowstorms there is a low just off the Pac NW coast. The issue is how we get there. That low isn't typically as strong as a super nino one will be. Additionally it's usually part of a retrograding pattern and it wasn't there the whole time, the cold for the snowstorm was set up then as the pattern retrogrades a transient low there sets in motion the snowstorm. That is also why we usually warm up soon after our biggest snowstorms...because a low there floods CONUS with pac puke. A permanent low all winter there would NOT be the same as a transient low there following a favorable pattern for cold. A permanent strong low just off the Pac NW would flood the CONUS with mild pac puke airmass. This doesn't mean we can't get a big snowstorm. There might we windows. The pac pattern will fluctuate some. We probably need a favorable AO/NAO and who knows. But we're going to be fighting some very uphill battles, some of which we have been fighting for the last 10 years. @CAPE you're right it can snow during these hostile underlying issues, but the fact is it has snowed less in the last 10 years than any 10 year period in history! No one is saying we know how the winter will play out for sure...but when making these seasonal predictions it's about probabilities, and the results under this pacific pdo regime have shown the math favors less snow. So yes we're rooting for a fluke, but you don't base a seasonal forecast one "maybe we get lucky". Thing is, the end of the Eps run from last night has a trough off the west coast retrograding wnw toward the GOA and the Euro weeklies have been, for at least 4 days in a row (could be longer, but I stopped at 4) putting a trough in the GOA and the SE US where the seasonal put them come mid-late November, subject to slight model to model variations. So we still need to wait as I ended my convo with Chuck, but MR is now lining up with seasonal progs, and that's as good as we can get from this point in time. P.s. It's been discussed some in other forums, but the North Pole ice shield is the largest in 10 or more years. Odd that could happen in this super Niño. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 48 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: All I know is I want to be in one of the first one of these. “The National Weather Service will implement the use of “Particularly Dangerous Situation” wording in select Blizzard Warnings and Ice Storm Warnings this season. This language will help forecasters alert partners and the public about high-confidence blizzards or ice storms of historic severity. These rare events typically pose exceptional threats by posing imminent danger to life and unprecedented disruptions to emergency services.” So would I for blizzards. But from their message, I wonder why they didn’t include flood warnings. I would think that flood warnings would be a top case for that kind of wording. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Thing is, the end of the Eps run from last night has a trough off the west coast retrograding wnw toward the GOA and the Euro weeklies have been, for at least 4 days in a row (could be longer, but I stopped at 4) putting a trough in the GOA and the SE US where the seasonal put them come mid-late November, subject to slight model to model variations. So we still need to wait as I ended my convo with Chuck, but MR is now lining up with seasonal progs, and that's as good as we can get from this point in time. P.s. It's been discussed some in other forums, but the North Pole ice shield is the largest in 10 or more years. Odd that could happen in this super Niño. I should have included this as part of my thinking that this year will be better than 23/24. Compare the 10/23 forecast (top) from the Euro seasonal to the 10/26 forecast. Cfs2 was already painting a well AN winter forecast as of mid October, 2023. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/202310/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: So would I for blizzards. But from their message, I wonder why they didn’t include flood warnings. I would think that flood warnings would be a top case for that kind of wording. Don’t we already have flood emergencies/warnings already? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Thing is, the end of the Eps run from last night has a trough off the west coast retrograding wnw toward the GOA and the Euro weeklies have been, for at least 4 days in a row (could be longer, but I stopped at 4) putting a trough in the GOA and the SE US where the seasonal put them come mid-late November, subject to slight model to model variations. So we still need to wait as I ended my convo with Chuck, but MR is now lining up with seasonal progs, and that's as good as we can get from this point in time. P.s. It's been discussed some in other forums, but the North Pole ice shield is the largest in 10 or more years. Odd that could happen in this super Niño. This is just an observation, in 2019 and 2024 the canonical nino look on guidance would often make it as close as about day 7-8 on the guidance, then evaporate back out to day 14 or 15 and repeat. In the next few weeks it would be a very good sign if this look at at week 2 actually becomes a reality. If it starts remaining locked at hour 300+ then the models may be doing the same thing they did in the last 2 nino's. I have no insight here other than observing this trend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: This is just an observation, in 2019 and 2024 the canonical nino look on guidance would often make it as close as about day 7-8 on the guidance, then evaporate back out to day 14 or 15 and repeat. In the next few weeks it would be a very good sign if this look at at week 2 actually becomes a reality. If it starts remaining locked at hour 300+ then the models may be doing the same thing they did in the last 2 nino's. I have no insight here other than observing this trend. As always, if it doesn't happen on or around the time as proged, we may be in trouble. Fwiw, today’s weeklies establish the trough around the GOA the first week of November and holds it through the last week. We won't have long to wait. P.s. Today's weeklies put a nice hit on the PV too. This has been advertised for a few days now. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202610190000 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago In JB recent WB post reading that Nino is peaking now, earlier than normal. Is there consensus on that fact? He also indicates that December will be cooler than a typical strong Nino year. Hope that is right. Maybe we won't be wearing shorts on Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 23 minutes ago, Weather Will said: In JB recent WB post reading that Nino is peaking now, earlier than normal. Is there consensus on that fact? He also indicates that December will be cooler than a typical strong Nino year. Hope that is right. Maybe we won't be wearing shorts on Christmas! You mean consensus on that OPINION. JB is a hypster and not necessarily associated with disseminating facts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 32 minutes ago, Weather Will said: In JB recent WB post reading that Nino is peaking now, earlier than normal. Is there consensus on that fact? He also indicates that December will be cooler than a typical strong Nino year. Hope that is right. Maybe we won't be wearing shorts on Christmas! JB used to be good at forecasting like 10+ years ago. He’s pretty much a hypecaster and says nonsense nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 31 minutes ago, CAPE said: You mean consensus on that OPINION. JB is a hypster and not necessarily associated with disseminating facts. He might be looking at the Cfs2 for that December comment. It's been coming in for the past week AN, but not by a whole lot. Idk. We'd have to get pretty lucky for December to deliver anything of consequence. Otoh, the exception is 12/82 when BWI was +3.4 and still had a little over 7" thanks to a 1/2" event and a Sunday night surprise of almost 7". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago I come from the future. STATION: LYNCHBURG VA MONTH: DECEMBER YEAR: 2026 LATITUDE: 37 19 N LONGITUDE: 79 12 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 73 45 59 17 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.0 15 300 M M 1 1 25 310 2 52 42 47 5 18 0 1.18 0.0 0 6.9 13 50 M M 10 18 50 3 49 37 43 1 22 0 0.95 0.0 0 2.5 10 40 M M 10 1 13 40 4 60 37 49 7 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.0 10 200 M M 3 12 15 210 5 69 42 56 15 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.7 17 190 M M 1 12 25 190 6 73 49 61 20 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.5 15 40 M M 2 20 40 7 70 51 61 20 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.7 26 200 M M 6 39 200 8 62 49 56 15 9 0 0.64 0.0 0 4.6 13 270 M M 9 1 22 280 9 66 43 55 14 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.1 15 260 M M 2 12 23 280 10 73 53 63 23 2 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.9 15 190 M M 1 22 190 11 77 56 67 27 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 8.6 23 190 M M 1 32 210 12 63 39 51 11 14 0 1.48 0.0 0 5.0 16 10 M M 10 12 30 20 13 58 34 46 6 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.3 30 200 M M 0 43 200 14 67 32 50 10 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.9 12 310 M M 0 20 310 15 76 50 63 24 2 0 0.07 0.0 0 6.9 14 40 M M 7 1 20 40 16 66 42 54 15 11 0 2.16 0.0 0 13.6 30 220 M M 10 3 48 220 17 51 33 42 3 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.4 16 260 M M 3 28 270 18 64 45 55 16 10 0 0.20 0.0 0 4.8 14 190 M M 8 19 200 19 70 48 59 20 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2.3 9 220 M M 3 14 350 20 74 51 63 25 2 0 T 0.0 0 7.5 22 190 M M 6 36 180 21 68 53 61 23 4 0 0.01 0.0 0 2.5 12 360 M M 6 21 340 22 77 44 61 23 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.5 17 200 M M 0 29 270 23 74 43 59 21 6 0 0.03 0.0 0 7.0 21 300 M M 6 36 320 24 63 44 54 16 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.6 14 70 M M 0 24 40 25 73 43 58 21 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.9 17 190 M M 0 23 140 26 80 54 67 30 0 2 0.10 0.0 0 8.8 18 200 M M 7 3 28 210 27 69 47 58 21 7 0 2.31 0.0 0 7.4 17 40 M M 10 13 26 30 28 55 34 45 8 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.6 14 310 M M 1 30 0 29 42 37 40 3 25 0 0.62 0.0 0 8.2 22 190 M M 10 32 200 30 61 44 53 17 12 0 0.16 0.0 0 6.8 16 210 M M 8 22 210 31 62 50 56 20 9 0 3.70 0.0 0 11.7 23 190 M M 10 3 30 200 ================================================================================ SM 2037 1371 307 4 13.61 0.0 194.2 M 86 ================================================================================ AV 65.7 44.2 6.3 FASTST M M 5 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> # 30 200 48 220 ================================================================================ NOTES: # LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H. PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2 STATION: LYNCHBURG VA MONTH: DECEMBER YEAR: 2026 LATITUDE: 37 19 N LONGITUDE: 79 12 W [TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16 AVERAGE MONTHLY: 55.2 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 13.61 1 = FOG OR MIST DPTR FM NORMAL: 16.0 DPTR FM NORMAL: +10.11 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY 3 = THUNDER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: I come from the future. STATION: LYNCHBURG VA MONTH: DECEMBER YEAR: 2026 LATITUDE: 37 19 N LONGITUDE: 79 12 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 73 45 59 17 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.0 15 300 M M 1 1 25 310 2 52 42 47 5 18 0 1.18 0.0 0 6.9 13 50 M M 10 18 50 3 49 37 43 1 22 0 0.95 0.0 0 2.5 10 40 M M 10 1 13 40 4 60 37 49 7 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.0 10 200 M M 3 12 15 210 5 69 42 56 15 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.7 17 190 M M 1 12 25 190 6 73 49 61 20 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.5 15 40 M M 2 20 40 7 70 51 61 20 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.7 26 200 M M 6 39 200 8 62 49 56 15 9 0 0.64 0.0 0 4.6 13 270 M M 9 1 22 280 9 66 43 55 14 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.1 15 260 M M 2 12 23 280 10 73 53 63 23 2 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.9 15 190 M M 1 22 190 11 77 56 67 27 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 8.6 23 190 M M 1 32 210 12 63 39 51 11 14 0 1.48 0.0 0 5.0 16 10 M M 10 12 30 20 13 58 34 46 6 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.3 30 200 M M 0 43 200 14 67 32 50 10 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.9 12 310 M M 0 20 310 15 76 50 63 24 2 0 0.07 0.0 0 6.9 14 40 M M 7 1 20 40 16 66 42 54 15 11 0 2.16 0.0 0 13.6 30 220 M M 10 3 48 220 17 51 33 42 3 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.4 16 260 M M 3 28 270 18 64 45 55 16 10 0 0.20 0.0 0 4.8 14 190 M M 8 19 200 19 70 48 59 20 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2.3 9 220 M M 3 14 350 20 74 51 63 25 2 0 T 0.0 0 7.5 22 190 M M 6 36 180 21 68 53 61 23 4 0 0.01 0.0 0 2.5 12 360 M M 6 21 340 22 77 44 61 23 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.5 17 200 M M 0 29 270 23 74 43 59 21 6 0 0.03 0.0 0 7.0 21 300 M M 6 36 320 24 63 44 54 16 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.6 14 70 M M 0 24 40 25 73 43 58 21 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.9 17 190 M M 0 23 140 26 80 54 67 30 0 2 0.10 0.0 0 8.8 18 200 M M 7 3 28 210 27 69 47 58 21 7 0 2.31 0.0 0 7.4 17 40 M M 10 13 26 30 28 55 34 45 8 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.6 14 310 M M 1 30 0 29 42 37 40 3 25 0 0.62 0.0 0 8.2 22 190 M M 10 32 200 30 61 44 53 17 12 0 0.16 0.0 0 6.8 16 210 M M 8 22 210 31 62 50 56 20 9 0 3.70 0.0 0 11.7 23 190 M M 10 3 30 200 ================================================================================ SM 2037 1371 307 4 13.61 0.0 194.2 M 86 ================================================================================ AV 65.7 44.2 6.3 FASTST M M 5 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> # 30 200 48 220 ================================================================================ NOTES: # LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H. PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2 STATION: LYNCHBURG VA MONTH: DECEMBER YEAR: 2026 LATITUDE: 37 19 N LONGITUDE: 79 12 W [TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16 AVERAGE MONTHLY: 55.2 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 13.61 1 = FOG OR MIST DPTR FM NORMAL: 16.0 DPTR FM NORMAL: +10.11 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY 3 = THUNDER Looks like you were on the wrong side of the stationary front all month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scope1 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 14 minutes ago, scope1 said: u are some pro forecaster man 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 21 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: I come from the future. STATION: LYNCHBURG VA MONTH: DECEMBER YEAR: 2026 LATITUDE: 37 19 N LONGITUDE: 79 12 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 73 45 59 17 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.0 15 300 M M 1 1 25 310 2 52 42 47 5 18 0 1.18 0.0 0 6.9 13 50 M M 10 18 50 3 49 37 43 1 22 0 0.95 0.0 0 2.5 10 40 M M 10 1 13 40 4 60 37 49 7 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.0 10 200 M M 3 12 15 210 5 69 42 56 15 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.7 17 190 M M 1 12 25 190 6 73 49 61 20 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.5 15 40 M M 2 20 40 7 70 51 61 20 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.7 26 200 M M 6 39 200 8 62 49 56 15 9 0 0.64 0.0 0 4.6 13 270 M M 9 1 22 280 9 66 43 55 14 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.1 15 260 M M 2 12 23 280 10 73 53 63 23 2 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.9 15 190 M M 1 22 190 11 77 56 67 27 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 8.6 23 190 M M 1 32 210 12 63 39 51 11 14 0 1.48 0.0 0 5.0 16 10 M M 10 12 30 20 13 58 34 46 6 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.3 30 200 M M 0 43 200 14 67 32 50 10 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.9 12 310 M M 0 20 310 15 76 50 63 24 2 0 0.07 0.0 0 6.9 14 40 M M 7 1 20 40 16 66 42 54 15 11 0 2.16 0.0 0 13.6 30 220 M M 10 3 48 220 17 51 33 42 3 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.4 16 260 M M 3 28 270 18 64 45 55 16 10 0 0.20 0.0 0 4.8 14 190 M M 8 19 200 19 70 48 59 20 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2.3 9 220 M M 3 14 350 20 74 51 63 25 2 0 T 0.0 0 7.5 22 190 M M 6 36 180 21 68 53 61 23 4 0 0.01 0.0 0 2.5 12 360 M M 6 21 340 22 77 44 61 23 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.5 17 200 M M 0 29 270 23 74 43 59 21 6 0 0.03 0.0 0 7.0 21 300 M M 6 36 320 24 63 44 54 16 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.6 14 70 M M 0 24 40 25 73 43 58 21 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.9 17 190 M M 0 23 140 26 80 54 67 30 0 2 0.10 0.0 0 8.8 18 200 M M 7 3 28 210 27 69 47 58 21 7 0 2.31 0.0 0 7.4 17 40 M M 10 13 26 30 28 55 34 45 8 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.6 14 310 M M 1 30 0 29 42 37 40 3 25 0 0.62 0.0 0 8.2 22 190 M M 10 32 200 30 61 44 53 17 12 0 0.16 0.0 0 6.8 16 210 M M 8 22 210 31 62 50 56 20 9 0 3.70 0.0 0 11.7 23 190 M M 10 3 30 200 ================================================================================ SM 2037 1371 307 4 13.61 0.0 194.2 M 86 ================================================================================ AV 65.7 44.2 6.3 FASTST M M 5 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> # 30 200 48 220 ================================================================================ NOTES: # LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H. PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2 STATION: LYNCHBURG VA MONTH: DECEMBER YEAR: 2026 LATITUDE: 37 19 N LONGITUDE: 79 12 W [TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16 AVERAGE MONTHLY: 55.2 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 13.61 1 = FOG OR MIST DPTR FM NORMAL: 16.0 DPTR FM NORMAL: +10.11 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY 3 = THUNDER I come from the future... [code] STATION: LYNCHBURG VA MONTH: JANUARY YEAR: 2027 LATITUDE: 37 19 N LONGITUDE: 79 12 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 73 44 59 22 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.0 15 300 M M 1 1 25 310 2 62 32 47 10 18 0 0.01 0.0 0 6.9 13 50 M M 7 18 50 3 53 22 38 1 27 0 0.15 0.1 0 2.5 10 40 M M 10 1 13 40 4 40 17 29 -8 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.0 10 200 M M 3 12 15 210 5 39 32 36 0 29 0 0.92 1.0 0 5.7 17 190 M M 10 12 25 190 6 43 29 36 0 29 0 0.10 0.0 1 4.5 15 40 M M 8 20 40 7 44 21 33 -3 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.7 26 200 M M 6 39 200 8 52 39 46 10 19 0 2.04 0.0 0 4.6 13 270 M M 10 1 22 280 9 46 23 35 -1 30 0 0.10 0.0 0 3.1 15 260 M M 8 12 23 280 10 43 23 33 -3 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.9 15 190 M M 1 22 190 11 57 26 42 6 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.6 23 190 M M 1 32 210 12 63 39 51 15 14 0 0.01 0.0 0 5.0 16 10 M M 5 12 30 20 13 68 44 56 21 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.3 30 200 M M 0 43 200 14 57 42 50 15 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.9 12 310 M M 0 20 310 15 56 40 48 13 17 0 0.07 0.0 0 6.9 14 40 M M 7 1 20 40 16 46 32 39 4 26 0 1.16 0.0 0 13.6 30 220 M M 10 1 48 220 17 41 23 32 -3 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.4 16 260 M M 3 28 270 18 44 25 35 0 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.8 14 190 M M 2 19 200 19 40 28 34 -1 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 2.3 9 220 M M 3 14 350 20 34 21 28 -8 37 0 T T 0 7.5 22 190 M M 6 36 180 21 38 23 31 -5 34 0 0.01 0.0 0 2.5 12 360 M M 6 21 340 22 37 23 30 -6 35 0 0.50 5.5 0 5.5 17 200 M M 10 29 270 23 34 23 29 -7 36 0 0.63 5.1 5 7.0 21 300 M M 10 36 320 24 43 24 34 -2 31 0 0.00 0.0 10 4.6 14 70 M M 0 24 40 25 53 22 38 2 27 0 0.00 0.0 8 4.9 17 190 M M 0 23 140 26 60 24 42 6 23 0 0.00 0.0 3 8.8 18 200 M M 1 28 210 27 69 37 53 17 12 0 0.21 0.0 0 7.4 17 40 M M 9 1 26 30 28 55 34 45 8 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.6 14 310 M M 1 30 0 29 42 30 36 -1 29 0 1.20 2.6 0 8.2 22 190 M M 10 32 200 30 34 24 29 -8 36 0 0.66 5.0 2 6.8 16 210 M M 10 22 210 31 32 20 26 -11 39 0 0.01 0.1 6 11.7 23 190 M M 8 30 200 ================================================================================ SM 1498 886 815 0 7.78 19.4 194.2 M 166 ================================================================================ AV 48.3 28.6 6.3 FASTST M M 5 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> # 30 200 48 220 ================================================================================ NOTES: # LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H. [/code] [code] PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2 STATION: LYNCHBURG VA MONTH: JANUARY YEAR: 2027 LATITUDE: 37 19 N LONGITUDE: 79 12 W [TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16 AVERAGE MONTHLY: 38.7 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 7.78 1 = FOG OR MIST DPTR FM NORMAL: 2.7 DPTR FM NORMAL: +4.28 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY HIGHEST: 73 ON 1 GRTST 24HR 2.14 ON 8-9 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS LOWEST: 17 ON 4 3 = THUNDER SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS TOTAL MONTH: 19.4 INCH 5 = HAIL GRTST 24HR 10.6 ON 22-23 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE GRTST DEPTH: 10 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM: VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS 8 = SMOKE OR HAZE [NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW X = TORNADO MAX 32 OR BELOW: 1 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 16 MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 0 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 11 MIN 32 OR BELOW: 23 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 7 MIN 0 OR BELOW: 0 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 3 [/code] [code] STATION: LYNCHBURG VA MONTH: FEBRUARY YEAR: 2027 LATITUDE: 37 19 N LONGITUDE: 79 12 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 33 24 29 -8 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.0 15 300 M M 1 1 25 310 2 42 32 37 0 28 0 0.08 0.1 0 6.9 13 50 M M 7 18 50 3 43 22 33 -4 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2.5 10 40 M M 10 1 13 40 4 50 27 39 2 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.0 10 200 M M 3 12 15 210 5 56 21 39 1 26 0 0.10 0.0 0 5.7 17 190 M M 7 12 25 190 6 43 28 36 -2 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.5 15 40 M M 2 20 40 7 30 21 26 -12 39 0 1.10 11.0 0 8.7 26 200 M M 10 39 200 8 32 19 26 -12 39 0 0.94 9.2 11 4.6 13 270 M M 10 1 22 280 9 26 3 15 -23 50 0 0.00 0.0 19 3.1 15 260 M M 2 12 23 280 10 33 13 23 -15 42 0 0.10 2.1 18 4.9 15 190 M M 9 22 190 11 37 16 27 -11 38 0 0.00 0.0 19 8.6 23 190 M M 1 32 210 12 43 24 34 -5 31 0 0.03 0.3 17 5.0 16 10 M M 6 12 30 20 13 58 34 46 7 19 0 0.00 0.0 14 11.3 30 200 M M 0 43 200 14 56 32 44 5 21 0 0.00 0.0 6 3.9 12 310 M M 0 20 310 15 66 50 58 19 7 0 0.57 0.0 1 6.9 14 40 M M 9 1 20 40 16 56 48 52 13 13 0 2.16 0.0 0 13.6 30 220 M M 10 3 48 220 17 51 29 40 1 25 0 1.20 0.0 0 7.4 16 260 M M 10 28 270 18 44 25 35 -5 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.8 14 190 M M 2 19 200 19 50 28 39 -1 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2.3 9 220 M M 3 14 350 20 44 31 38 -2 27 0 1.32 T 0 7.5 22 190 M M 10 36 180 21 48 33 41 1 24 0 0.01 0.0 0 2.5 12 360 M M 6 21 340 22 57 33 45 5 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.5 17 200 M M 0 29 270 23 64 43 54 14 11 0 0.03 0.0 0 7.0 21 300 M M 6 36 320 24 53 34 44 4 21 0 0.50 0.0 0 4.6 14 70 M M 9 24 40 25 43 30 37 -4 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.9 17 190 M M 0 23 140 26 50 29 40 -1 25 0 0.10 0.3 0 8.8 18 200 M M 8 28 210 27 39 27 33 -8 32 0 0.31 4.0 0 7.4 17 40 M M 10 1 26 30 28 55 34 45 4 20 0 0.00 0.0 3 4.6 14 310 M M 1 30 0 ================================================================================ SM 1302 790 765 0 8.55 27.0 167.5 M 152 ================================================================================ AV 46.5 28.2 6.0 FASTST M M 5 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> # 30 220 48 220 ================================================================================ NOTES: # LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H. [/code] [code] PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2 STATION: LYNCHBURG VA MONTH: FEBRUARY YEAR: 2027 LATITUDE: 37 19 N LONGITUDE: 79 12 W [TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16 AVERAGE MONTHLY: 37.7 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 8.55 1 = FOG OR MIST DPTR FM NORMAL: -1.3 DPTR FM NORMAL: +5.65 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY HIGHEST: 66 ON 15 GRTST 24HR 3.36 ON 16-17 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS LOWEST: 3 ON 9 3 = THUNDER SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS TOTAL MONTH: 27.0 INCH 5 = HAIL GRTST 24HR 20.2 ON 7-8 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE GRTST DEPTH: 19 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM: VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS 8 = SMOKE OR HAZE [NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW X = TORNADO MAX 32 OR BELOW: 3 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 15 MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 0 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 11 MIN 32 OR BELOW: 20 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 7 MIN 0 OR BELOW: 0 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 4 [HDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 765 CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 12 DPTR FM NORMAL +37 PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 5 TOTAL FM JUL 1 2708 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 11 DPTR FM NORMAL -539 [CDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 0 DPTR FM NORMAL 0 [PRESSURE DATA] TOTAL FM JAN 1 0 HIGHEST SLP 30.61 ON 9 DPTR FM NORMAL 0 LOWEST SLP 29.24 ON 16 [/code] [code] CXUS51 KRNK 011132 CF6LYH PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) STATION: LYNCHBURG VA MONTH: MARCH YEAR: 2027 LATITUDE: 37 19 N LONGITUDE: 79 12 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 54 34 44 2 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.0 15 300 M M 1 1 25 310 2 36 32 34 -8 31 0 0.88 4.3 0 12.4 25 40 M M 10 33 40 3 33 22 28 -14 37 0 2.10 19.0 4 18.7 38 30 M M 10 9 46 30 4 30 17 24 -18 41 0 0.20 2.0 21 15.2 31 320 M M 10 9 40 320 5 41 12 27 -16 38 0 0.00 0.0 22 8.3 20 320 M M 1 28 320 6 50 24 37 -6 28 0 0.00 0.0 18 7.1 17 310 M M 2 24 300 7 58 33 46 3 19 0 0.00 0.0 13 5.4 13 220 M M 3 18 210 8 68 44 56 12 9 0 0.32 0.0 8 9.8 24 190 M M 8 12 32 190 9 73 54 64 20 1 0 1.45 0.0 3 13.4 30 190 M M 10 12 41 190 10 78 60 69 25 0 4 2.30 0.0 0 15.1 34 200 M M 10 3 49 200 11 84 64 74 29 0 9 0.85 0.0 0 17.3 39 210 M M 9 35 61 220 12 73 50 62 17 3 0 0.40 0.0 0 14.6 36 280 M M 8 3 46 290 13 54 36 45 0 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 12.0 30 310 M M 3 39 310 14 57 33 45 0 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.9 18 320 M M 1 25 320 15 61 37 49 3 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.2 15 220 M M 2 21 230 16 65 42 54 8 11 0 0.12 0.0 0 8.1 19 200 M M 7 26 210 17 52 38 45 -1 20 0 0.47 0.0 0 9.3 22 40 M M 10 1 29 40 18 48 31 40 -7 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 10.7 26 320 M M 3 34 320 19 55 29 42 -5 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.5 16 290 M M 1 22 290 20 62 34 48 1 17 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.8 14 230 M M 2 19 240 21 68 41 55 7 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.7 20 210 M M 3 26 210 22 71 48 60 12 5 0 0.05 0.0 0 9.0 23 200 M M 6 31 200 23 63 45 54 6 11 0 0.62 0.0 0 10.2 25 270 M M 9 1 33 280 24 56 37 47 -1 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.8 21 310 M M 2 28 310 25 59 34 47 -2 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.4 15 320 M M 1 20 320 26 55 32 44 -5 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.2 18 40 M M 6 24 40 27 37 31 34 -15 31 0 0.22 2.0 0 9.8 22 40 M M 10 29 40 28 35 30 33 -17 32 0 0.13 1.4 2 11.4 26 10 M M 10 33 10 29 49 27 38 -12 27 0 0.00 0.0 3 9.6 22 330 M M 4 29 330 30 58 33 46 -4 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.8 16 250 M M 2 22 250 31 66 40 53 2 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.9 14 210 M M 1 19 210 ================================================================================ SM 1749 1124 584 13 10.11 28.7 302.6 M 165 ================================================================================ AV 56.4 36.3 9.8 FASTST M M 5 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> 39 210 61 220 ================================================================================ NOTES: COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H. [/code] [code] PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2 STATION: LYNCHBURG VA MONTH: MARCH YEAR: 2027 LATITUDE: 37 19 N LONGITUDE: 79 12 W [TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16 AVERAGE MONTHLY: 46.6 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 10.11 1 = FOG OR MIST DPTR FM NORMAL: +0.5 DPTR FM NORMAL: +6.31 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY HIGHEST: 84 ON 11 GRTST 24HR 3.75 ON 9-10 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS LOWEST: 12 ON 5 3 = THUNDER SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS TOTAL MONTH: 28.7 INCH 5 = HAIL GRTST 24HR 23.3 ON 2-3 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE GRTST DEPTH: 22 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM: VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS 8 = SMOKE OR HAZE [NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW X = TORNADO MAX 32 OR BELOW: 1 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 14 MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 0 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 13 MIN 32 OR BELOW: 11 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 6 MIN 0 OR BELOW: 0 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 3 [HDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 584 CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 15 DPTR FM NORMAL -3 PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 4 TOTAL FM JUL 1 3292 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 12 DPTR FM NORMAL -542 [CDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 13 DPTR FM NORMAL +13 [PRESSURE DATA] TOTAL FM JAN 1 13 HIGHEST SLP 30.68 ON 5 DPTR FM NORMAL +13 LOWEST SLP 28.97 ON 3 [/code] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 45 minutes ago, mitchnick said: He might be looking at the Cfs2 for that December comment. It's been coming in for the past week AN, but not by a whole lot. Idk. We'd have to get pretty lucky for December to deliver anything of consequence. Otoh, the exception is 12/82 when BWI was +3.4 and still had a little over 7" thanks to a 1/2" event and a Sunday night surprise of almost 7". Latest WB EURO weeklies are not bad looking for early December either. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago JB post courtesy MJO812 in El Nino thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 2 hours ago, scope1 said: Funny how “worst of winter” and “big snowstorms” seems to follow a population density map of the US every year in these online forecasts. Must be a coincidence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Stratosphere warming is not uncommon in El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 14 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I disagree with Chuck about the position of the N Pac low being fine if it's east based. But most won't want to hear this. He is right that if you run a mean of our biggest snowstorms there is a low just off the Pac NW coast. The issue is how we get there. That low isn't typically as strong as a super nino one will be. Additionally it's usually part of a retrograding pattern and it wasn't there the whole time, the cold for the snowstorm was set up then as the pattern retrogrades a transient low there sets in motion the snowstorm. That is also why we usually warm up soon after our biggest snowstorms...because a low there floods CONUS with pac puke. Wavelengths are fairly uniform. Composite of our storms >6-8" has a -120dm GOA low! That's so strong of a signal I have been saying no to many major snowstorm threats on models over the last few years when there is High pressure there instead lol. The mean composite for DJFM in Super Nino's is also -120dm.. so one encompasses 4 months, the other a few days but they are equal. The Super El Nino sample is not that large. If you only plot the Gulf of Alaska low anomaly in the Winter months our temps here are right around average, below in the Southeast, and above up near the Great Lakes. +EPO is really the pattern we don't want. But the few Super Nino analogs have run very different downstream than non-ENSO analogs of low pressure in the same exact spot in the N. Pacific! I'm saying that the difference shouldn't be so great and if the pattern happens again it may match the 100 all-ENSO analogs vs 5 or so Super Nino analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 8 hours ago, mitchnick said: JB post courtesy MJO812 in El Nino thread. I saw it on Twitter yesterday but someone was showing the analog mean strat temps during super ninos (which is only 4 examples) and the euro seasonal. Analog mean had a warming in early Feb that propagated down by March. Euro seasonal had a similar pattern but about 1 month earlier. A -AO through Feb would be pretty good for us combined with generally more favorable snow conditions for Nino Febs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I’m not sure what a start warming in early November really buys us. It will probably restrengthen after and not sure it will propagate downward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m not sure what a start warming in early November really buys us. It will probably restrengthen after and not sure it will propagate downward? Not excited about 38 degree rain storms? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 53 minutes ago Share Posted 53 minutes ago On 10/18/2026 at 8:24 PM, CAPE said: Need to stop focusing on it. It isnt the end all. What we need to overcome it is a -EPO, and an AO that isnt absurdly positive. We have had multiple snowstorms since 2015 with a less than favorable PDO, and in most of those cases there was an EPO ridge and a non hostile AO state. I'm not well versed on Pacific or Indian Ocean teleconnections. Just trying to learn how the PNA/PDO/EPO all mesh together. On 10/18/2026 at 8:08 PM, Terpeast said: I know you asked Chuck, but my answer would be that the marine heat wave off Japan either has to dissipate or migrate east to just off the western North America coast. Problem is, the marine heat wave runs deep about 100-200m not just at the surface, so its harder to mix that out. Interesting. On 10/18/2026 at 8:40 PM, CAPE said: Latest Euro extended fwiw. Could look a lot worse than this heading into Met winter. I'm happy to see some kind of persistent western ridge in Canada. At least that mitigates the Pacific Puke to some degree. On 10/18/2026 at 9:06 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's a really strong decadal pattern. NOAA has run subsurface analysis of the N. Pacific and show very warm anomalies making it to -400m. That has never happened before. It will take a lot of time to get that out, at least a few years. History does show it's strongly cyclical over the course decades though so maybe in time it will be favorable again. I do think the next positive phase will be dominated by warm water in the Gulf of Alaska and West Coast North America, but it may take a few decades to get there, because it's a completely different pattern. Thank you for the insight. I appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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