Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[bncho]

4 hours ago, ravensrule said:

That was a great winter, unfortunately only us two remember it. 

My parents don’t even remember that winter.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

My parents don’t even remember that winter.

Take a hike, punk! 

[HighStakes]

35 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

There was also a surprise snow in December that dropped 4-8" across the area. Without checking LWX records, I think BWI was around 6".

Yup, I remember that one well too. I believe it was overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning. Top 5 positive bust as not one forecasters even predicted an inch.

[nw baltimore wx]

I was in PG county then, and the ‘83 blizzard had the best thunder and lightning snow that I have ever seen. It was pouring potato chips and you could literally see the snow accumulating during the height of the storm.

[CAPE]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

PDO was positive in 82-83

It was a +AO Winter however. A few things that I look at in the warm season, posted earlier in the thread are going toward more -AO this coming Winter. So that's a plus. 

[Vasnowboy]

We had a snow in December 1982 too 7-10 inches but like cape about 82/83 ir didn’t stay on the ground long. That storm came on a Saturday night and was supposed to stay south. Was a big surprise,

[aldie 22]

11 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I was in PG county then, and the ‘83 blizzard had the best thunder and lightning snow that I have ever seen. It was pouring potato chips and you could literally see the snow accumulating during the height of the storm.

Yeah I lived in Takoma Park then it was an intense storm 

[dailylurker]

13 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I was in PG county then, and the ‘83 blizzard had the best thunder and lightning snow that I have ever seen. It was pouring potato chips and you could literally see the snow accumulating during the height of the storm.

I remember that! I was only 6 lol. Crazy rates. Best rates I've ever seen were Jan 25, 2000, February 2010, and by far the most insane was last January in the town of Pulaski and Lacona NY. 6-8" per hour is just different. It's like twilight zone. You can literally watch it accumulating like a time lapse video.

[WVclimo]

 I was working night shift in a warehouse in Savage, MD in Feb ‘83.  The snow began while we were working.  Before leaving, I asked the boss “if it snows all day, are we working tonight?”  He told me emphatically that we didn’t close for snow.  Having grown up in Western Md. where we rarely closed for snow, I took him at his word.

That evening, I swept 2’ of snow off my driveway (didn’t own a shovel) and dutifully drove to work.  Only to find the place deserted and 4’ drifts against the door.

[anotherman]

I remember it in West Chester, PA. I was 7.

[CAPE]

22 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Take a hike, punk! 

These 15 year olds lol.

[CAPE]

21 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

PDO was positive in 82-83

It was a +AO Winter however. A few things that I look at in the warm season, posted earlier in the thread are going toward more -AO this coming Winter. So that's a plus. 

H5 went from shit to sugar over about 10 days leading up.

 

[CAPE]

On 7/10/2026 at 10:02 AM, mitchnick said:

82/83 was east based or leaning per SSTA (some sites have maps that illistrate it better, but I don'thave any off hand), so no need to give up yet.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

This seems to concur.

[SnowenOutThere]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

H5 went from shit to sugar over about 10 days leading up.

 

Do you think the setup would still work with climate change? I ask as typically when our pattern is shit it takes a good while to ever get cold again. 

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Do you think the setup would still work with climate change? I ask as typically when our pattern is shit it takes a good while to ever get cold again. 

Not the case several times in recent winters- although most of those were Ninas. Jan 2022 is a perfect example(my storm.) We were in shut(shit) the blinds mode with no apparent end in sight and 10 days or so later there was a major snowstorm across much of the area, and it stayed pretty cold and snowed another time or 2.

[SnowenOutThere]

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not the case several times in recent winters- although most of those were Ninas. Jan 2022 is a perfect example(my storm.) We were in shut(shit) the blinds mode with no apparent end in sight and 10 days or so later there was a major snowstorm across much of the area, and it stayed pretty cold and snowed another time or 2.

I agree with that take but wonder how it would go without a change into cross polar flow. When we rely on home grown cold it might be different. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

H5 went from shit to sugar over about 10 days leading up.

 

Yeah let's see if we can get a +500dm -NAO. In Super El Nino STJ that is the best case scenario. 

Feb 1983 was -NAO as whole. We have however seen 13 straight +NAO Feb's. Let's see if we can break that lol

2014   1.34   
2015   1.32   
2016   1.58  
2017   1.00   
2018   1.58  
2019   0.29   
2020   1.26   
2021   0.14   
2022   1.68   
2023   0.92  
2024   1.09  
2025   1.60   
2026   0.68

 

1983   -0.5

[CAPE]

48 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I agree with that take but wonder how it would go without a change into cross polar flow. When we rely on home grown cold it might be different. 

We need a -AO and or -EPO to deliver legit cold. Outside of that we rely on a dynamic system(evap/dynamic cooling) with a very favorable track, and probably need a significant, established negative NAO to feed cold enough air southward as a coastal low climbs the coast. That's kind of always been part of the formula, esp in a Nino, but might be a bit more of a challenge today. Thus why I generally don't mind Ninas at all lately given my location, mostly depending on the NE Pac ridge position/orientation.

[CAPE]

54 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah let's see if we can get a +500dm -NAO. In Super El Nino STJ that is the best case scenario. 

Feb 1983 was -NAO as whole. We have however seen 13 straight +NAO Feb's. Let's see if we can break that lol

2014   1.34   
2015   1.32   
2016   1.58  
2017   1.00   
2018   1.58  
2019   0.29   
2020   1.26   
2021   0.14   
2022   1.68   
2023   0.92  
2024   1.09  
2025   1.60   
2026   0.68

 

1983   -0.5

Some of those years we had cold air delivery via a -EPO and a well timed/transient -NAO that supported a snowstorm. Jan 2017, 18 and 2022 are examples.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Some of those years we had cold air delivery via a -EPO and a well timed/transient -NAO that supported a snowstorm. Jan 2017, 18 and 2022 are examples.

Current Atlantic SSTA is hopeful for -NAO bouts this Winter. 

Unfortunately the Pacific is as hard core -PDO as it has ever been (despite El Nino). I do think  it is possible to get -EPO in El Nino. reverse 1895-1950 La Nina's are very -epo/el nino. 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Current Atlantic SSTA is hopeful for -NAO bouts this Winter. 

Unfortunately the Pacific is as hard core -PDO as it has ever been (despite El Nino). I do think  it is possible to get -EPO in El Nino. reverse 1895-1950 La Nina's are very -epo/el nino. 

CanSIPS likes that idea.