2026 C and E Pacific tropical activity

[Windspeed]

Polo is still putting on a show once again. The eye has warmed and the CDO has cooled. It probably will regain Category 5 intensity on the next update.

[Windspeed]

Nolo appears to be wrapping convection around the eye now and trying to mix out some dry airmass. We'll see just how strong it can get prior to the closest approach of the Big Island.

[dallen7908]

My daughter works for FEMA and texted me this morning concerned that the similarity of Nolo and Polo is adding confusion and could affect messaging.  She asked me if I, a degreed meteorologist, knew why they chose such similar and "silly" names.   Of course, I have no idea.  Does anyone know?

[Boston Bulldog]

Odalys is now a Cat 4!

[Windspeed]

Polo might be making another run at sub 900 mb. This satellite presentation speaks for itself with intense lightning data around the eyewall.

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Polo might be making another run at sub 900 mb. This satellite presentation speaks for itself with intense lightning data around the eyewall.

Should have recon data in an hour or so, NOAA2 took off a little while ago

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Should have recon data in an hour or so, NOAA2 took off a little while ago

A beast:

[TheDreamTraveler]

6 hours ago, dallen7908 said:

My daughter works for FEMA and texted me this morning concerned that the similarity of Nolo and Polo is adding confusion and could affect messaging.  She asked me if I, a degreed meteorologist, knew why they chose such similar and "silly" names.   Of course, I have no idea.  Does anyone know?

The CPAC gets a separate name list and *normally* strong hurricanes do not effect Hawaii or any land in that part of the ocean. I guess it's just a very bad coincidence we had a year where both lists had 2 similar names that just so happened to occur at the same exact time and also effect two landmasses at the same time as well

[yoda]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
800 AM MST Fri Sep 25 2026
 
...POLO IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 108.5W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...900 MB...26.58 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the progress
of this system. Watches could be required for a portion of the area
as early as Saturday.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located 
near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 108.5 West. Polo is moving 
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected 
to continue through today. A gradual turn to the northwest and north 
is forecast on Saturday and Sunday, followed by a northeastward 
motion on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to 
approach Baja California Sur early next week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible today,
but some weakening is expected over the weekend. Polo is forecast to
approach Baja California Sur as a strong hurricane early next week.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 900 mb (26.58 inches).
 

[yoda]

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
800 AM MST Fri Sep 25 2026
 
After regaining Category 5 status overnight, the remarkable
satellite presentation of Polo indicates the hurricane has continued
to intensify. The eye has contracted and warmed over the past
several hours, with temperatures above 20 deg C measured inside the
eye. A thick, solid ring of deep convection surrounds the center,
with cloud tops as cold as -80 to -85 deg C. There were no
indications of a concentric eyewall structure in 0905 UTC AMSR3
passive microwave imagery. The latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimates and a
T7.5 Dvorak classification from TAFB support an initial intensity of
155 kt. A NOAA research aircraft mission is scheduled to investigate
Polo later today.
 
Polo continues moving westward (270/10 kt) along the south side of a
mid-level ridge that extends across northern Mexico. This weekend, a
deep-layer trough approaching from the west is expected to erode the
steering ridge. This will cause Polo to turn northwestward and
northward as it moves around the western side of the ridge. By
Monday, the increasing influence of the upper trough should turn
Polo northeastward toward Baja California Sur and west-central
Mexico. The global models and AI-based guidance are generally
in good agreement on this track evolution. The updated NHC track
forecast is adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one, and
is also a bit slower to come into better agreement with the latest
multi-model consensus. Overall, the NHC forecast remains on the
faster and right side of the envelope, closer to HCCA and GDMI.
Based on this prediction, watches could be required for portions of
the Baja California Peninsula as early as Saturday.
 
Based on the aforementioned AMSR3 data, an eyewall replacement cycle
(ERC) does not appear imminent. Thus, further slight strengthening
cannot be ruled out while Polo remains over very warm waters in a
weaker shear environment. The vertical wind shear is expected to
increase over the weekend, and because of this as well as the
possibility of a future ERC, the NHC intensity forecast shows a
weakening trend beginning on Saturday and continuing into next week.
Regardless, Polo is predicted to approach Baja California Sur as a
strong hurricane early next week, and interests there should closely
monitor the latest forecast updates. The NHC forecast remains on the
higher side of the intensity guidance, generally following HCCA.
Once land interaction occurs with the Baja California Peninsula and
mainland Mexico, more rapid weakening is anticipated.
 
Distant moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be transported
into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next
week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash
flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather
Prediction Center for more information.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early
next week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor
the latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness
plan in place. Watches could be required as early as Saturday for
portions of the area.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja
California Sur late Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 17.1N 108.5W  155 KT 180 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 17.2N 109.8W  155 KT 180 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 17.8N 111.5W  140 KT 160 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 18.9N 112.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 20.4N 113.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  28/0000Z 22.0N 113.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 23.8N 113.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 26.9N 110.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 30.4N 106.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[yoda]

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
200 PM MST Fri Sep 25 2026
 
A NOAA research aircraft has found that Polo remains a very 
powerful category 5 hurricane. The highest flight level winds 
measured by the aircraft were 165 kt in the northeast quadrant, and 
since that measurement the central pressure has decreased a couple 
millibars, to 913. An UAS launched from the plane measured a peak 
wind just above 200 kt at an altitude just below 500 m, which 
corresponds to a 10 m wind of 150-155 kt based on an experimental 
wind reduction model. Taken all together, this data supports an 
initial intensity of 155 kt. 
 
The NOAA aircraft reported that there may be signs of an eyewall 
replacement cycle beginning. Although this does not appear to be 
having an impact on the hurricane yet, it does highlight that 
fluctuations in the intensity of Polo are likely over the next 24 h 
while it remains over warm waters. After that, some weakening is 
expected as Polo begins to move into a region with lower ocean heat 
content and the vertical wind shear increases slightly. However, it 
is expected to remain a powerful major hurricane through the 
weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is still near the upper-end of 
the intensity guidance and is very similar to the previous advisory.

Only small adjustments were made to the official track forecast, 
with the biggest change being that the anticipated forward motion 
for Polo is slightly faster in this advisory. Polo is still 
expected to turn gradually northwestward, then northward this 
weekend as it moves around the western side of a ridge centered 
over northern Mexico. Then early next week an upper-level trough 
approaching from the northwest will likely cause the hurricane to 
turn northeastward toward Baja California Sur and west-central 
Mexico. The AI models, notably GDM and the experimental 
WeatherNext3, generally show a slightly faster motion than most of 
the dynamical guidance, and the model spread has increased at 72 h 
and beyond. The forecast confidence is correspondingly lower with 
this advisory. The NHC forecast is a blend of the consensus 
and continuity with the previous advisory. Based on the forecast 
track, watches could be required for portions of Baja California Sur 
as soon as tonight.

Distant moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be transported
into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next
week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash
flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather
Prediction Center for more information.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early
next week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor
the latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness
plan in place. Watches could be required as early as tonight for
portions of the area.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja
California Sur late Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 17.2N 109.2W  155 KT 180 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 17.4N 110.6W  150 KT 175 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 18.2N 112.1W  140 KT 160 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 19.6N 113.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 21.5N 113.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  28/0600Z 23.4N 113.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 25.1N 112.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 28.5N 109.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
120H  30/1800Z 32.0N 105.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

[Chinook]

Recent passes of Hurricane Polo show flight-level winds around 150kt and pressure values of 909mb or a bit less. The TropicalTidbits satellite view now has a 914mb pressure shown. (not sure if this is the official value)

[SchaumburgStormer]

Polo still looks awesome on IR

[vortex95]

15 hours ago, dallen7908 said:

My daughter works for FEMA and texted me this morning concerned that the similarity of Nolo and Polo is adding confusion and could affect messaging.  She asked me if I, a degreed meteorologist, knew why they chose such similar and "silly" names.   Of course, I have no idea.  Does anyone know?

That's an excellent question!

Each tropical basin has it own list of names, and the names are a mix of types of names from all countries in that particular region, so you are not going to get traditional names you'd see in the U.S. all the time.

The CPAC has its own list of names and almost all of them are derived from Hawaiian culture.   It is pure coincidence that Polo in the EPAC, which has its own set of names, and Nolo, in the CPAC are occurring at the same time.  That just how things have worked out as to what has gone on for TCs.  Inconvenient, yes, but they are not going to change the lists for something like this.  You can't account for every variance in the atmosphere!   These name lists are set years in advance, and cycle through the same single large list for each tropical basin. 

For NWPAC names, you see the variety there, and it is not always a person name, some names are of animals, plants, and inanimate objects.

The only time you get change is when a name gets retired b/c that TC was of serious impact and a new name is inserted.  What constitutes "serious impact?"  For a U.S. landfall, typically a hurricane of Cat 3 or greater, it gets retired b/c of impact. 

However, strength of a TC is irrelevant really, it is all about impact. TSs can get retired.  Allison in 2001 and Imelda in 2019 b/c even though they were only TSs, you got record rains and flooding.

One oddity is Emily from 2005.  It was the first Cat 5 on record in July in the Atlantic, and made two Cat 3 landfalls in Mexico, but it was not retired.  Since impacts were all in Mexico, they held the reins as to requesting it to be retired or not, and they did not do so.  No idea why.

Bret in 1999 made landfall as Cat 3 in TX, but that location was the very sparsely populated area between CRP and BRO, so impact was minimized and thus Bret was not retired.
 

[vortex95]

If anyone is wondering, has a HU ever been at Cat 5 strength 3 different times?  Yes, Allen in Aug 1980 in the Atlantic.  Classic Cabo Verde HU!   Each time it peaked at  Cat 5 (155, 165, 155 kt), it weakened in-between to a Cat 3.  At the time, it was only the second Atlantic HU sub-900 mb (899).
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hurricane_blog/35th-anniversary-of-hurricane-allen/

One of the most epic TC sat image ever -- see attachments (I recall being awed by this in college back in the day).  Look at the size of it and perfect symmetry!

Also, Ivan in 2004 in the Atlantic cycled up an down to Cat 5 3x.  There may be 1 or 2 others in the Atlantic.  I'm sure there are plenty of cases in the NWPAC given how that TC is for activity.
 

[Windspeed]

Polo is undergoing an EWRC. The inner eye is shrinking rapidly. The concentric outer eyewall appears to be taking off, and convection remains intense. Though, due to the chaotic nature of these processes, it's futile to try and forecast how fast these will complete and the larger eye clear out entirely, but this one may not take very long. I am basing this on the intensity of convection that persists and the symmetrical structure of the CDO. Once the outer eyewall is fully dominant, it shouldn't take long for sinking airmass to suppress remnant convection of the old and clear it out. SSTs are still very warm, though OHC at depth is decreasing. Polo's motion seems fast enough that upwelling shouldn't be much of an issue for now. SSTs do drop off in the forecast when Polo is moving poleward, which will bring down intensity regardless. Southwesterly shear should also begin to increase, which may help get some drier airmass into the core and put an end to its many hours of Cat 5/upper Cat 4 durations of intensity. Polo may be able to maintain Cat 3 status into the Baja Peninsula. We are still several days away from that, however.

[Chinook]

9 hours ago, vortex95 said:

That's an excellent question!

Each tropical basin has it own list of names, and the names are a mix of types of names from all countries in that particular region, so you are not going to get traditional names you'd see in the U.S. all the time.

The CPAC has its own list of names and almost all of them are derived from Hawaiian culture.   It is pure coincidence that Polo in the EPAC, which has its own set of names, and Nolo, in the CPAC are occurring at the same time.  That just how things have worked out as to what has gone on for TCs.  Inconvenient, yes, but they are not going to change the lists for something like this.  You can't account for every variance in the atmosphere!   These name lists are set years in advance, and cycle through the same single large list for each tropical basin. 

For NWPAC names, you see the variety there, and it is not always a person name, some names are of animals, plants, and inanimate objects.

The only time you get change is when a name gets retired b/c that TC was of serious impact and a new name is inserted.  What constitutes "serious impact?"  For a U.S. landfall, typically a hurricane of Cat 3 or greater, it gets retired b/c of impact. 

However, strength of a TC is irrelevant really, it is all about impact. TSs can get retired.  Allison in 2001 and Imelda in 2019 b/c even though they were only TSs, you got record rains and flooding.

One oddity is Emily from 2005.  It was the first Cat 5 on record in July in the Atlantic, and made two Cat 3 landfalls in Mexico, but it was not retired.  Since impacts were all in Mexico, they held the reins as to requesting it to be retired or not, and they did not do so.  No idea why.

Bret in 1999 made landfall as Cat 3 in TX, but that location was the very sparsely populated area between CRP and BRO, so impact was minimized and thus Bret was not retired.
 

storm name "Marco" is on this year's list for the Atlantic. It would have been a huge coincidence if Marco and Polo were named storms at the same time.