2026 C and E Pacific tropical activity

[GaWx]

Please post 2026 C and E Pacific discussion/activity in here. Thank you.

[yoda]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

It has begun in the EPAC

 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Amanda Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012026
800 AM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026
 
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2026 
EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 128.2W
ABOUT 1475 MI...2375 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Amanda was 
located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 128.2 West. Amanda is 
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is 
expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the west and 
west-southwest at a slower forward motion is forecast this weekend. 
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 
couple of days. A weakening trend is forecast later this weekend.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

 

[WxWatcher007]

Models are starting to light up in the EPAC I’m the coming days. A fast start seems increasingly likely there. 

[Chinook]

 

Tropical Storm Elida, with a large amount of organized convection here, is expected to peak at 75kt/ category 1 in a couple of days

 

Quote

Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that Elida has become a little better 
organized since the last advisory, with some convective curvature 
now seen near the center. However, there is no evidence yet that 
the storm is developing an eyewall or inner convective core. A 
recent partial ASCAT overpass showed wind vectors as high as 47 kt 
northeast of the center. Based on this, possible undersampling 
issues, and slight increases in the various satellite intensity 
estimates, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt.

[WxWatcher007]

Pac looking pretty active right now with a brief C5 (Genevieve) off the Mexican coast and likely close Hawaii approach from Fausto. 

[olafminesaw]

Structure of the year award goes to Genevieve 

[Kevin Reilly]

My friend's plane leaves for Honolulu Hawaii Friday, August 14th.  He is taking a Hawaiian island cruise around all the islands.   Looks like the GFS has a 985 mb storm and the Euro 997 mb storm making a direct hit on the big island before moving west and away.  Looks like this system is a legitimate threat to Hawaii.   Any updates from the more seasoned tropical guys here would be great.  I am able to see the models and the water vapor maps / satellites etc.  looks like a bit of shear and dry air to the north limiting development for now.  Looks like the legitimate threat lies at 11 N and 143 W if I am looking at it correctly but almost looks like another up there at 15N and 139 W.  It looks very active out there.

[Wannabehippie]

It is going to be interesting to see if One-C makes landfall in any of the Hawaiian islands. That doesn't happen too often.

[vortex95]

I am not impressed w/ this cntrl Pacific system (now PTC 01C).  It is broad and monsoonal, and lots of dry air at mid-levels just to its NW over a large area along w/ stable stratocu present (see WV and VIS attached).

A trough develops over HI as the system approaches the Big Island (see 850-200 shear attached at 90 hr), so another negating factor.

Being a larger monsoonal-type TC, this prevents it from becoming tight and solid RI phases.  Also, long parcel trajectories around the system promote more dry air intrusions into the center. 

I think it will be no worse than a typical strong Kona low HI gets almost every winter.  Significant impact yes, but one has to look beyond the media hype and the fact it has a name.  That does not change actual wind, surf, or rain.  50 kt winds and 20" of rain is the same whether it comes from a TC or ET low.  Even though direct TC strikes on HI are uncommon, they are used to such conditions (a strong TS) from Kona lows.  That makes a big difference for preparations and overall less shock and awe.

I like to look at the SHIPS output for TC as you can sum up things fairly quickly as to shear and dry air issues in the fcst.  Here is the 12/12z run for 01C:
https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northcentralpacific/2026/cp932026/stext/26081212CP9326_ships.txt

Look at the SHEAR (KT) and SHEAR DIR lines,  You see it increases by 72 hr, not high, but look at the direction, out of the W, and w/ the TC moving to the W?  That's a problem.

And the 700-500 MB RH line.  Environmental mid-level RH is key.  Anything bellow 60% is not good and you can see it drops below 40% by 84 hr.

The are many others items in the SHIPS output, but the shear and RH I find most useful.  Now, there are caveats.  When you have a large and strong TC, it can fight off modest shear and its inner core can remain isolated from dry air in the surrounding environment.,  Shear and RH values front he SHIPS did *not* work well at all for HU Ian in Sep 2022 leading up to the FL landfall.  Shear was quite strong (over 30kt ) and RH below 60%, and it still intensifies to a Cat 5!

But for nascent or weaker TCs, modest shear and dry air at mid-levels are typically a significant hindrance.  When these factors are present, it's hard for any TC to get above Cat 2 strength.  For 01C, I think 60 kt for a peak is a good fcst.  Once it gets well beyond HI near the Dateline, it looks like it could become much stronger.
 

[gallopinggertie]

4 hours ago, vortex95 said:

I am not impressed w/ this cntrl Pacific system (now PTC 01C).  It is broad and monsoonal, and lots of dry air at mid-levels just to its NW over a large area along w/ stable stratocu present (see WV and VIS attached).

A trough develops over HI as the system approaches the Big Island (see 850-200 shear attached at 90 hr), so another negating factor.

Being a larger monsoonal-type TC, this prevents it from becoming tight and solid RI phases.  Also, long parcel trajectories around the system promote more dry air intrusions into the center. 

I think it will be no worse than a typical strong Kona low HI gets almost every winter.  Significant impact yes, but one has to look beyond the media hype and the fact it has a name.  That does not change actual wind, surf, or rain.  50 kt winds and 20" of rain is the same whether it comes from a TC or ET low.  Even though direct TC strikes on HI are uncommon, they are used to such conditions (a strong TS) from Kona lows.  That makes a big difference for preparations and overall less shock and awe.

I like to look at the SHIPS output for TC as you can sum up things fairly quickly as to shear and dry air issues in the fcst.  Here is the 12/12z run for 01C:
https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northcentralpacific/2026/cp932026/stext/26081212CP9326_ships.txt

Look at the SHEAR (KT) and SHEAR DIR lines,  You see it increases by 72 hr, not high, but look at the direction, out of the W, and w/ the TC moving to the W?  That's a problem.

And the 700-500 MB RH line.  Environmental mid-level RH is key.  Anything bellow 60% is not good and you can see it drops below 40% by 84 hr.

The are many others items in the SHIPS output, but the shear and RH I find most useful.  Now, there are caveats.  When you have a large and strong TC, it can fight off modest shear and its inner core can remain isolated from dry air in the surrounding environment.,  Shear and RH values front he SHIPS did *not* work well at all for HU Ian in Sep 2022 leading up to the FL landfall.  Shear was quite strong (over 30kt ) and RH below 60%, and it still intensifies to a Cat 5!

But for nascent or weaker TCs, modest shear and dry air at mid-levels are typically a significant hindrance.  When these factors are present, it's hard for any TC to get above Cat 2 strength.  For 01C, I think 60 kt for a peak is a good fcst.  Once it gets well beyond HI near the Dateline, it looks like it could become much stronger.
 

Right, as it’s currently forecast it looks like just a moderate impact to Hawaii, probably similar to Iselle which hit the Big Island around 10 years ago as a 60 mph tropical storm and caused significant damage to the papaya crop. Per the NHC forecast this one could surpass Iselle by a bit, in which case it could become the strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall on the Big Island (or any of the islands other than Kauai). It looks to be moving through the islands at a good clip which hopefully cuts down on flooding.

[NorthHillsWx]

Looks like one of those CAG systems in the Caribbean 

[vortex95]

19 hours ago, gallopinggertie said:

Right, as it’s currently forecast it looks like just a moderate impact to Hawaii, probably similar to Iselle which hit the Big Island around 10 years ago as a 60 mph tropical storm and caused significant damage to the papaya crop. Per the NHC forecast this one could surpass Iselle by a bit, in which case it could become the strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall on the Big Island (or any of the islands other than Kauai). It looks to be moving through the islands at a good clip which hopefully cuts down on flooding.

This Aug 1871 hurricane made landfall on the Big Island as an estimated Cat 3.  Detailed analysis here:
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/99/1/bams-d-16-0333.1.xml
 

[WxWatcher007]

53 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

This Aug 1871 hurricane made landfall on the Big Island as an estimated Cat 3.  Details analysis here:
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/99/1/bams-d-16-0333.1.xml
 

Now that’s a storm.

[WxWatcher007]

“On 11 September 1992 Hurricane Iniki scored a direct hit on the island of Kaua‘i. Over a period of only 3 hours, the category 4 hurricane (on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale; Simpson 1974) caused damage equivalent to the total general fund budget of the state of Hawaii at that time and wiped out the historical profits of the Hawaii homeowners insurance industry.”

That is a staggering amount of damage. 1871 looks really bad too based on the descriptions. 

[olafminesaw]

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

What model is this?

Attached is main NHC model suite for intensity, and it looks reasonable given the environment.

Regarding the environment, speculation for capping of intensity can be minimized b/c satellite tells the story.  All the stratocu evident N and W of the TC indicates a stable atmosphere, which is not conducive for much strengthening beyond a minimal hurricane.   See VIS image attached.

12z GFS gets it down to 996 mb near the Big Island before it weakens.  ECMWF is the same.  HAFS-A min is 998 mb and HAFS-B is 988 mb, but only b/c HAFS-B is farther S and doesn't get the circulation tangled w/ the mountains of the Big Island.  That may happen b/c overall, there seems to be a S trendfor the track w/ the most recent model consensus.

[olafminesaw]

3 hours ago, vortex95 said:

What model is this?

Attached is main NHC model suite for intensity, and it looks reasonable given the environment.

Regarding the environment, speculation for capping of intensity can be minimized b/c satellite tells the story.  All the stratocu evident N and W of the TC indicates a stable atmosphere, which is not conducive for much strengthening beyond a minimal hurricane.   See VIS image attached.

12z GFS gets it down to 996 mb near the Big Island before it weakens.  ECMWF is the same.  HAFS-A min is 998 mb and HAFS-B is 988 mb, but only b/c HAFS-B is farther S and doesn't get the circulation tangled w/ the mountains of the Big Island.  That may happen b/c overall, there seems to be a S trendfor the track w/ the most recent model consensus.

Google deep mind model. One of the best performing tropical models out there these days

[vortex95]

38 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Google deep mind model. One of the best performing tropical models out there these days

I am not sure how well it may perform here b/c since Deep Mind is trained on past events, and there are very few cases in this area of the Pacific compared to the ern Pacific and Atlantic.

The HAFS-A and B, which are the best TC physics-based models, do not show the system attaining hurricane-strength.  The HAFS-B was much stronger at showing a 965 mb hurricane at 06z, but 12z was weaker, and now 18z has backed down to below hurricane-strength.  The both show the system quite asymmetric for convection for it closest pass to the Big Island, which we can already see on sat (all on the N side).

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Google deep mind model. One of the best performing tropical models out there these days

 

5 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

I am not sure how well it may perform here b/c since Deep Mind is trained on past events, and there are very few cases in this area of the Pacific compared to the ern Pacific and Atlantic.

The HAFS-A and B, which are the best TC physics-based models, do not show the system attaining hurricane-strength.  The HAFS-B was much stronger at showing a 965 mb hurricane at 06z, but 12z was weaker, and now 18z has backed down to below hurricane-strength.  The both show the system quite asymmetric for convection for it closest pass to the Big Island, which we can already see on sat (all on the N side).

That's a good and interesting point. Given how few examples we have of this kind of scenario in this part of the Pacific, I would probably look at it with more of a grain of salt than say the MDR activity we currently have over in the Atlantic. HAFS-A and B would be my preferred intensity guidance here, especially after a cycle or two of recon ingested data. As for track, I'd still lean south for a center pass, avoiding landfall but still bringing wind, rain, and surf impacts. 

[yoda]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lala Advisory Number   9
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Fri Aug 14 2026
 
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNING ISSUED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 149.5W
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Watch for Maui County has been upgraded to a
Tropical Storm Warning.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Oahu and Kauai Counties.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

[WxWatcher007]

Doesn't look like much of a core on that first recon pass today. We'll see what they find on the north side though. The IR looks relatively disheveled. New cone likely brings an official landfall. 

[JACKASS]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Doesn't look like much of a core on that first recon pass today. We'll see what they find on the north side though. The IR looks relatively disheveled. New cone likely brings an official landfall. 

New?

Time says 11am today?

edit: 6 hours difference in time zones, my bad!!

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, JACKASS said:

New?

Time says 11am today?

Six hour time difference. It’s just after noon currently in Hawaii. 

[JACKASS]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Six hour time difference. It’s just after noon currently in Hawaii. 

Yeah, edited my post.

The world revolves around me and my time frame, at least it does in my head!

[vortex95]

1601z SAR pass does not show a well-organized system (see attachment).  Looks like there are two LLCCs and this large N-S gap of light winds and strong asymmetry. 

I don't know why NHC keeps saying, "conditions generally favorable."  That is vague.  Dry air and shear are an issue.  CMISS 18z analysis showed 18 kt of westerly shear present.  Lala was 50 kt/997mb at 03z and still is 50 kt/997mb at 21z.  2156z recon shows these values unchanged.  Models still show an upper-level trough developing over the western Hawaiian Island as Lala gets close to the Big Island, so that is not "favorable" in an overall sense.  NHC seems to be hedging higher and using persistence IMHO.

One possible factor is that topographic convergence may tighten the wind field along the srn tip of the Big Island as gets close for 64 kt winds, but that's a local mesoscale factor not directly related to actual intensification of the TC synoptically.  Topographic influences for winds are to be discarded for assigning actual TC intensity AFAIK.  It is similar to discarding mesoscale higher winds from intense pulsing convection when shear is present for the TC (Bertha had this big time) or a transient mesovort in the eye.

Still a significant impact on Hawaii, not downplaying that, just talking above about the finer details of meteorological analysis, which I hope some find informative.
 

[vortex95]

NHC gives Lala 55 kt at 00z.  Yes, the pressure is down 2  to 995 mb, but peak 700 mb FL winds are only 53 kt w/ max SFMR surface winds of 48 kt.  Standard reduction for 700 winds to the surface and the SFMR winds are matched well here, so 50 kt seems more appropriate.  The 2330z Dvorak analysis gives T3.0 which equals 45 kt.  So the satellite signature is not 55 kt, which would be a T3.5.  Satellite signature does still matter even when recon is present b/c recon can only sample a small part of the storm.  Satellite gives a complete view.

Also, the above was a manually-done Dvorak fix.  The Automated Dvorak Technique (ADT) gives a T2.6, so that is even weaker. All these things go into what to assign a TC for intensity.

Looking at the EIR loop, there is no real change in organization, and the deep convection is pulsing and not banded well.  Loop attached,

We all see the same data, so not arm-chairing here, just giving an objective meteorological analysis, and talking about the different tools and products one can use to make their own assessment, which is a good thing to do!
 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

NHC gives Lala 55 kt at 00z.  Yes, the pressure is down 2  to 995 mb, but peak 700 mb FL winds are only 53 kt w/ max SFMR surface winds of 48 kt.  Standard reduction for 700 winds to the surface and the SFMR winds are matched well here, so 50 kt seems more appropriate.  The 2330z Dvorak analysis gives T3.0 which equals 45 kt.  So the satellite signature is not 55 kt, which would be a T3.5.  Satellite signature does still matter even when recon is present b/c recon can only sample a small part of the storm.  Satellite gives a complete view.

Also, the above was a manually-done Dvorak fix.  The Automated Dvorak Technique (ADT) gives a T2.6, so that is even weaker. All these things go into what to assign a TC for intensity.

Looking at the EIR loop, there is no real change in organization, and the deep convection is pulsing and not banded well.  Loop attached,

We all see the same data, so not arm-chairing here, just giving an objective meteorological analysis, and talking about the different tools and products one can use to make their own assessment, which is a good thing to do!
 

If anyone’s followed models or honestly just looked at the system and avoided social media it’s been very apparent for days this will be an upper-tier TS or bottom line cat 1 hurricane when it makes its closest approach. Based on what I’ve seen it likely skirts just south of the big island. Nothing shocking or surprising has happened this system has largely followed the forecast, though I agree at present it would seem to be unlikely this reaches hurricane intensity before its closest approach 

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  11
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026
 
Lala has changed little in organization during the past several 
hours, with most of the deep convection remaining over and north of 
the center. However, data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft indicate that the cyclone has strengthened some this 
afternoon. Pressure observations from nearby NDBC buoy 51004 have 
also been useful in assessing the cyclone as it passes close to the 
station. Based on a blend of the aircraft data, buoy observations, 
and overall satellite presentation, the initial intensity is set at 
55 kt.
 
The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 290/10 kt. A mid-level
high pressure system anchored north of the Hawaiian Islands should
continue to steer Lala generally west-northwestward during the next
several days. Some slowing of the forward motion is possible as the
cyclone approaches the Big Island and begins to interact with the
island's terrain on Saturday. Short-term deviations in the track are
also possible during this time. After passing near or over the
southern portion of the Big Island, Lala could make a subtle turn
toward the northwest in the lee of the island before resuming a
west-northwestward motion south of the smaller islands through the
remainder of the weekend. The latest NHC track forecast is very
similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the mult-model
consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.
 
Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 h
while environmental conditions remain generally favorable. Although
mid-level dry air continues to be a limiting factor, the inner
circulation could become somewhat more compact and organized as Lala
approaches the southern portion of the Big Island. The NHC forecast
therefore continues to show Lala reaching hurricane strength near
the time it reaches the Big Island on Saturday. Interaction with the
island's terrain should then disrupt the low-level circulation and
result in weakening, with increasing vertical wind shear associated
with an upper-level low providing an additional negative influence
later in the weekend. Some re-strengthening is forecast early next
week as vertical wind shear relaxes and Lala remains over warm sea
surface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous advisory and remains near the middle- to upper-end
of the guidance envelope.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected on the Big Island of 
Hawaii Saturday, with the strongest wind gusts expected in areas of 
higher terrain. Preparations should be rushed to completion this 
evening before tropical-storm-force winds begin.  
Tropical-storm-force winds are also expected across portions of the 
smaller islands this weekend.
 
2. Heavy rainfall will reach the Big Island this evening and spread
westward across the remainder of the island chain this weekend. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
3. Large and dangerous waves are expected across portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend. Surf is already building along
east-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores
as Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause
localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 17.6N 152.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 18.0N 154.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 18.8N 155.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 20.0N 158.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 20.7N 161.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  17/1200Z 20.9N 163.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 21.0N 166.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 21.5N 170.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 22.8N 173.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs

[Windspeed]

I actually like the call for minimal hurricane on the closest approach. Though the discussion mentioned not much change in organization or intensity in the past six hours, Lala's core structure is starting to show some interesting signs it may be about to begin a period of intensification. Over the past several hours, organizing banding is wrapping near the CoC. Additionally, some deeper convection is now firing within that interior band, and radar also suggests a shallow ring is evolving. SSTs are running above 27-27.5°C at that location, which is above normal aided by the strengthening El Niño. I'd favor steady intensification now despite any lingering dry airmass and status quo at this point.

[Windspeed]

Hrmm...