2026 C and E Pacific tropical activity

[GaWx]

Please post 2026 C and E Pacific discussion/activity in here. Thank you.

[yoda]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

It has begun in the EPAC

 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Amanda Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012026
800 AM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026
 
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2026 
EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 128.2W
ABOUT 1475 MI...2375 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Amanda was 
located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 128.2 West. Amanda is 
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is 
expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the west and 
west-southwest at a slower forward motion is forecast this weekend. 
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 
couple of days. A weakening trend is forecast later this weekend.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

 

[WxWatcher007]

Models are starting to light up in the EPAC I’m the coming days. A fast start seems increasingly likely there. 

[Chinook]

 

Tropical Storm Elida, with a large amount of organized convection here, is expected to peak at 75kt/ category 1 in a couple of days

 

Quote

Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that Elida has become a little better 
organized since the last advisory, with some convective curvature 
now seen near the center. However, there is no evidence yet that 
the storm is developing an eyewall or inner convective core. A 
recent partial ASCAT overpass showed wind vectors as high as 47 kt 
northeast of the center. Based on this, possible undersampling 
issues, and slight increases in the various satellite intensity 
estimates, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt.

[WxWatcher007]

Pac looking pretty active right now with a brief C5 (Genevieve) off the Mexican coast and likely close Hawaii approach from Fausto. 

[olafminesaw]

Structure of the year award goes to Genevieve 

[Kevin Reilly]

My friend's plane leaves for Honolulu Hawaii Friday, August 14th.  He is taking a Hawaiian island cruise around all the islands.   Looks like the GFS has a 985 mb storm and the Euro 997 mb storm making a direct hit on the big island before moving west and away.  Looks like this system is a legitimate threat to Hawaii.   Any updates from the more seasoned tropical guys here would be great.  I am able to see the models and the water vapor maps / satellites etc.  looks like a bit of shear and dry air to the north limiting development for now.  Looks like the legitimate threat lies at 11 N and 143 W if I am looking at it correctly but almost looks like another up there at 15N and 139 W.  It looks very active out there.

[Wannabehippie]

It is going to be interesting to see if One-C makes landfall in any of the Hawaiian islands. That doesn't happen too often.

[vortex95]

I am not impressed w/ this cntrl Pacific system (now PTC 01C).  It is broad and monsoonal, and lots of dry air at mid-levels just to its NW over a large area along w/ stable stratocu present (see WV and VIS attached).

A trough develops over HI as the system approaches the Big Island (see 850-200 shear attached at 90 hr), so another negating factor.

Being a larger monsoonal-type TC, this prevents it from becoming tight and solid RI phases.  Also, long parcel trajectories around the system promote more dry air intrusions into the center. 

I think it will be no worse than a typical strong Kona low HI gets almost every winter.  Significant impact yes, but one has to look beyond the media hype and the fact it has a name.  That does not change actual wind, surf, or rain.  50 kt winds and 20" of rain is the same whether it comes from a TC or ET low.  Even though direct TC strikes on HI are uncommon, they are used to such conditions (a strong TS) from Kona lows.  That makes a big difference for preparations and overall less shock and awe.

I like to look at the SHIPS output for TC as you can sum up things fairly quickly as to shear and dry air issues in the fcst.  Here is the 12/12z run for 01C:
https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northcentralpacific/2026/cp932026/stext/26081212CP9326_ships.txt

Look at the SHEAR (KT) and SHEAR DIR lines,  You see it increases by 72 hr, not high, but look at the direction, out of the W, and w/ the TC moving to the W?  That's a problem.

And the 700-500 MB RH line.  Environmental mid-level RH is key.  Anything bellow 60% is not good and you can see it drops below 40% by 84 hr.

The are many others items in the SHIPS output, but the shear and RH I find most useful.  Now, there are caveats.  When you have a large and strong TC, it can fight off modest shear and its inner core can remain isolated from dry air in the surrounding environment.,  Shear and RH values front he SHIPS did *not* work well at all for HU Ian in Sep 2022 leading up to the FL landfall.  Shear was quite strong (over 30kt ) and RH below 60%, and it still intensifies to a Cat 5!

But for nascent or weaker TCs, modest shear and dry air at mid-levels are typically a significant hindrance.  When these factors are present, it's hard for any TC to get above Cat 2 strength.  For 01C, I think 60 kt for a peak is a good fcst.  Once it gets well beyond HI near the Dateline, it looks like it could become much stronger.