Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[GrandmasterB]

I think it’s too conservative. I’ll probably go non-stop Miller A’s with some B’s intermingled. Just wall-to-wall KU events. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

1 hour ago, GrandmasterB said:

I think it’s too conservative. I’ll probably go non-stop Miller A’s with some B’s intermingled. Just wall-to-wall KU events. 

He's even got those miller, B's transferring off the carolina coast. This is a good man that knows how to look out for our best interest. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

 

I appreciate Bobby's video forecast. His forecasts are fast, straight to the point and his daily video forecasts are available about as early as anyone that i'm familiar with on youtube . 

 

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

 All I need is some distant lightning and rumbles of thunder to enhance my evening but I wonder if I will even get that. 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
416 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* WPC added a MRGL Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rain on
  Saturday across Southern PA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat and humidity will peak today.

2) Showers and scattered strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms, with the threat for localized gusty to damaging
winds for late today and early tonight, mainly across the NW
third of PA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Heat and humidity will peak today.

Increasingly southwesterly flow at the surface and aloft will
carry warm and humid air into the region today, well in advance
of a cold front moving southeast across the Upper Great Lakes.

A gradually narrowing SW-NE axis of very high PWAT air (1.8 - 2
inches) will reach the south shore of Lake Erie during the early
afternoon, then sag SE across the NW Mtns early this evening
before reaching the Southern Tier of PA before daybreak
Thursday. This will be a 0.5 to 0.75 inch increase in PWAT over
the upcoming 15 hours which will make it feel much more
uncomfortably humid later today and much of tonight.

The late day/nighttime peak in the won`t result in high heat
indices today with apparent temps only about 3-4 deg F higher
than the actual temps.

High temperatures will be around 2 to 4 degrees warmer than
they were today, generally ranging from the low to mid 80s. Heat
index values may touch the 90F mark in the south central
mountains on Wednesday as dewpoints climb back into the mid to
upper 60s. Rain-free conditions will prevail for much of the
day, though we should start to see thunderstorms develop over
northwest PA by the evening.

--------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Showers and scattered strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms, with the threat for localized gusty to damaging
winds for late today and early tonight, mainly across the NW
third of PA.

Surface low pressure system will be moving across northern
Ontario with a cold front extending south/southwest through the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Tightening llvl pressure gradient will lead to an increase in
synoptic scale/gradient winds this afternoon into Thursday.

Wind gusts will increase in into the 20s today on the hilltops
and also across the Lower SUsquehanna Valley. A gust near 30MPH
is possible on the tops of the Laurels Wed night just before
the front.

The cold front will provide enough lift of the airmass,
(containing a high shear/relatively low instability environment)
to create numerous showers and scattered, embedded thunderstorms,
with the majority of this convection occurring before the front
passes later tonight in the north and Thursday morning in the
south.

There is some potential for severe weather across northwest PA
with these storms as confidence in favorable overlap of CAPE and
shear continues to increase with SPC maintaining similar
areal coverage of their slight risk of severe weather. Most
guidance (including the latest HREF) shows  500 to 1200 J/kg of
MUCAPE developing out ahead of the front, with the highest
values concentrated over our northwestern counties.

Coinciding with this will be an increase in 0-6 km westerly
bulk shear, with values between 40 to 50 knots. This should
support some fast-moving discrete cells, growing upscale into
some line segments containing mini bows with an enhanced threat
for wind damage late today/this evening from Warren to Bradford
and points about 40 NM to the South.

Model soundings do show some turning in the lowest 0-3 km in
association with a 40 to 45 knot low-level jet, and a few
transient supercell structures or circulations embedded in
linear segments cannot be ruled out. SPC has included a 2%
tornado contour that covers much of the slight risk area.

Showers and thunderstorms should weaken as they move south and
east through the night into a more stable airmass. However,
they will still be capable of producing localized heavy
downpours.

The current WPC outlook for Thurs paints a SLGT risk of
excessive rainfall over portions of Cambria and Somerset
Counties. Some CAMs show the potential for up to an inch of rain
to fall into Thursday morning in the slight risk area, though
most guidance would suggest that up to half of an inch of rain
is the more likely outcome. Even though flash flood guidance is
relatively low in these areas, the potential for any flash
flooding appears to be low at this time unless any areas see
training thunderstorms develop.

High pressure builds behind the cold front, giving way to a dry
and sunny Friday.

Low level moisture lurking just south of the Mason/Dixon line
Fri/Fri night will advance NE across the state on Saturday as
SFC high pressure moves well off the Mid Atlantic and Southern
New England Coast.

This will lead to some showers spreading NE across the region
with a few PM TSRA possible Saturday and/or Sunday afternoons,
especially over the western mtns. A more- active (wetter)
pattern is in store for Mon-Tues. But, the flat upper ridge over
the southern half of the CONUS will make it difficult for deep
moisture to make it into PA ahead of any shots of atmos forcing.
The second half of the week probably ends dry as the upper
ridge pumps up over the central CONUS.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

64 when I left, 61 through the rurals with some valley fog. Dews on the rise for a couple days. Onward.