Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[Superstorm]

These couple of storms just popped up over the past hour from nothing. 

Those will probably feed a nasty storm complex east of Lancaster.


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[Jns2183]

at least it won't be hot these next 10 days because it looks really dry

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[Itstrainingtime]

Wow, warnings popping all over the place east of the river now. 

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

at least it won't be hot these next 10 days because it looks really dry

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Great week to be at OBX. That happened to us several years ago...our family's week was highlighted by 10.85" of rain in Hatteras. Water, water everywhere. 

[AccuChris]

Latest HRRR continues to not be impressed with storm/rain chances the rest of today for many of the LSV area aside from areas near the MD border. The real bust for now has been central PA where this light to moderate rain all day and cloud cover has really put a lid on things


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[canderson]

We’re driving down to Columbia. I don’t see it storing there (like Harrisburg 

[Yardstickgozinya]

9 hours ago, Voyager said:

Yeah, I think we're just about done as the last cell has moved northeast. I didn't think we'd pick up close to an inch in the forecasted first round. Ended up with 0.92" in my backyard. Locations to my immediate north (Hometown, Lake Hauto) are showing between 1.25" and 1.50".

I had to get to work.I'm not sure exactly what happened to that the expansive break in the clouds geo was showing this morning, but I maybe got 45 minutes of sun today. Last night's mcs  really seems to have things all mucked up now with debris. The cold front's still out in the western Ohio with plenty of time for things to happen. There may be no sun but we still have plenty of time and a powerful system to plow that cold front through. I'm sure the severe risk is falling, but we got a long way to go to say that we're done for the day with storms. 

[Storm Clouds]

There is a line coming across Lake Erie now…WAY far away but there is a chance…

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I had to get to work.I'm not sure exactly what happened to that the expansive break in the clouds geo was showing this morning, but I maybe got 45 minutes of sun today. Last night's mcs  really seems to have things all mucked up now with debris. The cold front's still out in the western Ohio with plenty of time for things to happen. There may be no sun but we still have plenty of time and a powerful system to plow that cold front through. I'm sure the severe risk is falling, but we got a long way to go to say that we're done for the day with storms. 

 

We had very little sunshine, and really not much of anything this afternoon as far as storms were concerned.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

A complete dud down this way with respect to any type of meaningful rain or severe. 

[canderson]

We drove through India by heavy rain by Elllcott City. That place always floods. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

A complete dud down this way with respect to any type of meaningful rain or severe. 

Zero measurable rain here so far but steady light rain has commenced. 

The line moving towards us is currently TOR warned...

[Yardstickgozinya]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

We had very little sunshine, and really not much of anything this afternoon as far as storms were concerned.

I know a lot of people have given up hope. And I i myself assumed severe is over, but as of the last updates, at 7:48pm Nws seems to still have their eye on the sky. I would have thought they would have changed that if they weren't still foreseeing some possibilitie. 

 

National Weather Service State College PA
748 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon through the evening hours today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon through the evening hours today.

We are in standby mode for now as the copious amount of
energy/lift/strong upper level diffluent flow (associated with
the left exit region of a 100+ KT jet) has produced an
expansive area of weak convection embedded in light to moderate
rain. All of this thick/debris cloud cover will prevent deep
convection through the early afternoon, but pockets of fairly
quick destabilization via breaks of sun should spread into
western PA and remain over our far SE zones to trigger some
deeper convection by or shortly after 18Z.

We`ll be closely monitoring satellite trends and meso-B
stability and shear fields to better hone in on areas under the
gun for potential impact of fast-moving TSRA.

[Yardstickgozinya]

I did notice the bottom of the conversation mention 18z but the update time is 7:48pm so i'm a little confused. I guess i'm just assuming they would take it down if they thought if all risk was over at that 7:48 update is the point that I was trying to make. 

[Itstrainingtime]

33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Zero measurable rain here so far but steady light rain has commenced. 

The line moving towards us is currently TOR warned...

That line overall looks like dog doo doo.

Might end up with no measurable rain today. Ouch.

[mahantango#1]

.07 rain today, disappointed we didn't get more.

[Storm Clouds]

Tempest recorded .06 of rain and an 18 mph gust of wind today. What a fail…enhanced risk and everything lol. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

The Great Chuck Chodes wouldn't have screwed it up this bad. Speaking of the king, he had a term for this kind of storm behavior. I believe he called it circle jerking the Commonwealth, but I could be mistaken. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 69 with a paltry .01” of rain. Just too much cloud debris around yesterday to ever really get things going. Good news is the upcoming stretch of weather is about as good as it gets for late July. Enjoy. 

[pawatch]

65 degrees this morning.

Yesterday was a big disappointment for rainfall. As much as they was warning everyone of severe weather.

.20” was all I got. The 2nd storm the radar just dissipated, and we didn’t even get a trace of rain.

The river they went from predicting a crest of around 6’ to the river cresting below 3’.

Currently a 1.46 deficit of rain for the month of July. June was even worse.

[mahantango#1]

7 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

The Great Chuck Chodes wouldn't have screwed it up this bad. Speaking of the king, he had a term for this kind of storm behavior. I believe he called it circle jerking the Commonwealth, but I could be mistaken. 

Miss Chuck Rhoads.

[canderson]

.01” at home

we drove down to Columbia which was a mistake. They had rain so heavy culverts l backed up. I was walking back to the car in water to my ankles. Parts of 29 were entirety flooded. Took close to an hour and half just to get to the PA border. It was awwwwwful 

[mahantango#1]

18 minutes ago, canderson said:

.01” at home

we drove down to Columbia which was a mistake. They had rain so heavy culverts l backed up. I was walking back to the car in water to my ankles. Parts of 29 were entirety flooded. Took close to an hour and half just to get to the PA border. It was awwwwwful 

Real concert and festival goers will do anything to see their favorite artists. Nothing will stop them unless the promoter says there are unsafe conditions. You are one of those people. I know I am one of those too, been there done that more than once. The worst one was had to evacuate Epicenter festival in North Carolina for tornado warning and sit in our vehicle. Aftermath was bad tent campers stuff destroyed, damage inside festival to one of the stages and several vendors had damage. But festival continued next day with a delayed start. We also experienced the same conditions in Va. with Blue Ridge Rock Festival in 2023 and we were camping at that festival. Luckily we didn't have damage to out tent and canopy we were lucky but a lot of other ones weren't so lucky. A lot lost their tents and canopies and their other stuff got soaked from the torrential rain. There was no warning as the storm formed right over the festival in minutes.