Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Any nit-picked plausibility that's been used to try and abase what is a clear, apodictic implication, notwithstanding ... that 00z operational Euro run fully committed to a heat wave later next week .. LOL

At least at 500 mb... This is not "too far west".  For heat enthusiasts that was a legit concern, but per this run, you'd be safe for bigger anomalies.   And it's 3 days of it, too.

D7

 

We don't live at 500 mb, and using 500 heights alone says nothing about what the sfc temps may be.  Convection/fronts as factors are significant as the ridge is dirty w/ its axis at 80W.  This precludes a solid Bermuda high set up need for sustained or unabated heat.

The details are everything here, so going all out for big heat is premature for New England.  GFSX MOS still shows no 90 explicity forecast E of a  LEB-CEF-BDL line.

[Damage In Tolland]

LETS F’ING GO!

We tried to tell em.. we warned em’. They kept saying no heat, BN summer, cool n dry. They should have listened, 

[Damage In Tolland]

The board is back to either slow loading or not opening at all now. Please fix it 

[dendrite]

Yeah they broke all of the 2m data years ago. Usually they underdid max and min temps and now they go bonkers with adiabatic mixing above H7 in mid summer and then an extra absurd near sfc superadiabatic layer. It sometimes overinflates 850 temps too if you’re mixing down from 150-200mb above that.

I mean what are we doing here? 22-23C usually nets you 98-102 depending on the flow and mixing.

[vortex95]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah they broke all of the 2m data years ago. Usually they underdid max and min temps and now they go bonkers with adiabatic mixing above H7 in mid summer and then an extra absurd near sfc superadiabatic layer. It sometimes overinflates 850 temps too if you’re mixing down from 150-200mb above that.

I mean what are we doing here? 22-23C usually nets you 98-102 depending on the flow and mixing.

The main issue here is that to may look all fine and dandy from a 500 hgt, 1000-500 thk, and 850 temp POV for heat, but clouds/convection/weak fronts/onshore flow can negate these obvious factors at low-levels quite well.  The caveats are rife here for next week and the local/mesoscale will likely modulate temps big time, esp. in eastern New England.

Yes, synoptically it looks impressive, but one can't say this enough for certain set ups. and this is one of them -- the details are everything!

[dendrite]

Trust me…we all know about pretty warm colors at H5 up here. But I think we sneak some good heat days in here next week with maybe some minor breaks in the intensity around the 4th.

MEX is going to have climo heavily factored in at d7 too. I’d be surprised if the numbers don’t jump at 12z for a few of those days next week.

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Have you tried requesting the desktop site on your phone?

I can't remember if it will give you the new page on your phone...it works on the ipad, but sometimes the phone is different.

Both of these links may revert to the legacy page for you.

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/legacy/

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

 

Edit...requesting desktop site worked for me on the iphone

Still doesn’t work. How to eff up a perfectly good website 101 by college of dupage

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

We don't live at 500 mb, and using 500 heights alone says nothing about what the sfc temps may be.  Convection/fronts as factors are significant as the ridge is dirty w/ its axis at 80W.  This precludes a solid Bermuda high set up need for sustained or unabated heat.

The details are everything here, so going all out for big heat is premature for New England.  GFSX MOS still shows no 90 explicity forecast E of a  LEB-CEF-BDL line.

 

No one in here 'takes 2 meter temps seriously'.   We've been discussing the limitations and logical factorization in why those limitation exists, for years prior to your coming in here recently and picking people apart when they are merely tracking heat - a vital and necessary aspect of in the rudimentary forecast philosophy  

You're talking to wrong person in the first place.   

"GFSX MOS still shows no 90 explicity forecast E of a  LEB-CEF-BDL line," 

a,  was first of all already addressed hours ago by yours truly,

and b,   is just as bad a logic as using 2-meter temperatures as deterministic.   Why?  Because as you go out in time, ex machine numbers are heavily weighted by climo.  That obfuscates when the signals surpass climatology, which this does and probably one of us in this conversation needs to get with that program, accept it, and stop nit picking because ..I don't know, you don't like heat? or don't understand the placement of nuance hyperbole or something

Tough cookies

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still doesn’t work. How to eff up a perfectly good website 101 by college of dupage

I tried the setting on my phone, unless there is something else I need to do. 

[Typhoon Tip]

In case there's those among us that don't already know this ...

It's more useful with MEX to cite the value of surpassing climo weighting, than it is to cite how those machine numbers are what they are, when looking at the deeper range.

Example,  KBDL-KFIT-KASH are as of this 12z cycle, all 9 to 12F above climatology from D6 to 7 ( which is also warmer than the prior cycle, btw -).   That says something is significantly offsetting climate in the warmer direction, and offers support to the emerging heat dome in the guidance. 

 KFIT   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   6/26/2026  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SAT 27| SUN 28| MON 29| TUE 30| WED 01| THU 02| FRI 03|SAT CLIMO
 N/X  60  84| 61  83| 61  86| 64  86| 60  84| 64  92| 72  92| 66 58 81
 TMP  69  75| 68  74| 70  78| 71  76| 67  76| 72  83| 79  82| 72      
 DPT  60  60| 61  60| 60  59| 63  61| 60  61| 64  70| 70  67| 61      
 CLD  PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC| CL  CL| PC      
 WND   3   6|  3   6|  3   5|  3   8|  4   6|  4  11|  6   8|  8      
 P12  13   7| 10  14| 12   0|  6  14| 12  13| 21  13| 15  15| 21999999
 P24      19|     30|     12|     25|     20|     24|     22|      999
 Q12   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       0|      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |         
 T12   4   5|  2  11|  7   6|  3  20|  6   8| 16  22| 22  22| 20      
 T24        |  5    | 14    |  6    | 20    | 17    | 34    | 39      

---

 KASH   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   6/26/2026  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SAT 27| SUN 28| MON 29| TUE 30| WED 01| THU 02| FRI 03|SAT CLIMO
 N/X  59  83| 60  82| 59  86| 62  85| 61  84| 65  91| 70  90| 65 57 81
 TMP  66  74| 67  73| 67  77| 69  73| 67  75| 72  82| 76  80| 70      
 DPT  63  62| 64  63| 62  61| 65  64| 63  64| 69  74| 72  71| 65      
 CLD  PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC| CL  PC| PC      
 WND   3   5|  5   6|  4   5|  3  10|  4   5|  3  14|  6  11|  4      
 P12  11   9| 11  16|  9   0|  6  12| 11  12| 22  14| 15  15| 23999999
 P24      22|     32|     10|     22|     19|     27|     23|      999
 Q12   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       0|      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |         
 T12   4   5|  2  11|  7   6|  3  20|  6   8| 16  22| 22  22| 20      
 T24        |  5    | 14    |  6    | 20    | 17    | 34    | 39      

---

 KBDL   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   6/26/2026  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SAT 27| SUN 28| MON 29| TUE 30| WED 01| THU 02| FRI 03|SAT CLIMO
 N/X  62  86| 63  88| 63  89| 66  90| 65  88| 68  93| 74  94| 71 60 83
 TMP  69  77| 70  79| 70  80| 72  80| 70  80| 74  85| 81  85| 77      
 DPT  60  60| 61  61| 60  60| 65  64| 63  65| 67  71| 72  72| 65      
 CLD  PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC| CL  PC| PC      
 WND   4   7|  5   7|  5   7|  6  10|  7   8|  8  18| 10  12|  9      
 P12   8  11|  7   8| 11   0|  9  22| 21  13| 18  14| 13  14| 18 23 22
 P24      17|     19|     11|     30|     26|     21|     19|       34
 Q12   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       0|      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |         
 T12   3   8|  3   6|  7   6|  3  30| 24  15| 14  22| 18  23| 15      
 T24        |  8    |  7    |  7    | 50    | 19    | 29    | 44    

 

[vortex95]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You're kind of taking this personally, to a petty scale too, aren't cha ?

Chlll out some.   

No one in here 'takes 2 meter temps seriously'.   We've been discussing the limitations and logical factorization in why those limitation exists, for years prior to your coming in here recently and picking people apart when they are merely tracking heat - a vital and necessary aspect of in the rudimentary forecast philosophy  

You're talking to wrong person in the first place.   

"GFSX MOS still shows no 90 explicity forecast E of a  LEB-CEF-BDL line," 

a,  was first of all already addressed hours ago by yours truly,

and b,   is just as bad a logic as using 2-meter temperatures as deterministic.   Why?  Because as you go out in time, ex machine numbers are heavily weighted by climo.  That obfuscates when the signals surpass climatology, which this does and probably one of us in this conversation needs to get with that program, accept it, and stop nit picking because ..I don't know, you don't like heat.  

Tough cookies

I was stating solid forecast concerns, that's all.  And personally?  No, debate/discussion is what this forum is all about.  The content of your  response by itself suggest you take it personally. 

How one goes from someone stating forecast concerns and caveats to "don't like the heat" is a non-sequitur argument.

Mentioning fine details is not the same as nit-picking, and the details count in any science.  You were mentioning how its looks good for sig heat at least from a 500 mb height position, but did not mention that 500 mb is not always a good proxy for sfc temps.

"that 00z operational Euro run fully committed to a heat wave later next week .. LOL

At least at 500 mb..."

So I pointed out the omission.  This is of value for others on the board, is it not?  It is fact CPC and others often just look at 500 height anomalies, and run w/ temps based on that alone.

And "tough cookies?"  What kind of statement is that in a serious meteorological discussion?  Don't degrade a discussion/debate w/ drivel phrases/terminology like that.

[CoastalWx]

What about tough noogies?

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The board is back to either slow loading or not opening at all now. Please fix it 

Pretty Please! As always ……

( it took two tries to get the host error photo attached )

 

[weatherwiz]

Pablo Sandoval ran faster than the board has this week 

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Trust me…we all know about pretty warm colors at H5 up here. But I think we sneak some good heat days in here next week with maybe some minor breaks in the intensity around the 4th.

MEX is going to have climo heavily factored in at d7 too. I’d be surprised if the numbers don’t jump at 12z for a few of those days next week.

I never contested no decent heat, just I think and we see this a lot, the hype alone about a hot period coming up or any inclement wx, all too often takes on a life of it own, and many, included some on this forum, get caught up in the social media hype and mode, and that skews their objectively, as in "I called it first!" or one makes it into more of a deal than it really is.

And you'd think it like it never can get hot here, or anywhere else for that matter, and it's end of days.  What planet are these ppl living on?  It would be highly atypical not to have bouts of well above avg temps anywhere on the globe over time.  And I don't want to here about the climate change factor.  Forget that factor for a min, and just look at wx history and what has happen before, and how fundamentally the Earth works for heat balance/distribution.  That is what is being demonized and hype, the normal order of things - "OMG, impactful/stormy wx is occurring -- PANIC!"

The above all rolls back into our perception of things, how we treat/handle it all, and zeitgeist.  Things like this need to be said at times b/c ppl often forget, caught up on the social media frenzy.

How we view/handle/discuss issues/things in general are just as important as the issues/things themselves.

[vortex95]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What about tough noogies?

That's so "FETCH!"  What decade are you living in? 

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

I was stating solid forecast concerns, that's all.  And personally?  No, debate/discussion is what this forum is all about.  The content of your  response by itself suggest you take it personally. 

How one goes from someone stating forecast concerns and caveats to "don't like the heat" is a non-sequitur argument.

Mentioning fine details is not the same as nit-picking, and the details count in any science.  You were mentioning how its looks good for sig heat at least from a 500 mb height position, but did not mention that 500 mb is not always a good proxy for sfc temps.

"that 00z operational Euro run fully committed to a heat wave later next week .. LOL

At least at 500 mb..."

So I pointed out the omission.  This is of value for others on the board, is it not?  It is fact CPC and others often just look at 500 height anomalies, and run w/ temps based on that alone.

And "tough cookies?"  What kind of statement is that in a serious meteorological discussion?  Don't degrade a discussion/debate w/ drivel phrases/terminology like that.

YOU'RE unnecessarily critiquing. 

Don't

Not to me anyway  

 

 

 

[TheBudMan]

*FIGHT* *FIGHT* *FIGHT*     need @Masswx to bring some maturity to this board !!! 

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Pablo Sandoval ran faster than the board has this week 

For about 4 hours earlier in the day things were moving along at click-speed.   Then all at once it was as though a switch happened.

Likely AM's traffic is routing through a device with mem consumption issue when there is load-balance switch at their ISP.  Which they either don't know is occurring ( unlikely...), or do and are working on fixing it without telling - else they are liable and owe ...so they're douchy  

heh

[vortex95]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

YOU'RE unnecessarily critiquing. 

Don't

Not to me anyway  

 

 

 

One should avoid typing any word in all caps in a civil discussion/debate on social media.  It is unprofessional and just promotes conflict.

"Not to me anyway?"  No one is above criticism, no one.  Debate/discussion is how science advances.  You really think one can post on a forum like this and not get criticism at times?  And criticism is often thought as always negative.  It is not, not when it done reasonably and w/ civility.  Silencing debate/discussion or making oneself immune/above itall  is not a good thing.

What you seem to be overlooking is that very fact that is criticism and debate are a good thing overall b/c many read the posts, and can learn something from what is said.  Not epiphanies or anything like that, but wx tidbits/info they can take in and absorb, and also can see a productive way to debate/discuss and the way *not* to do it.

Not everyone here is an expert meteorologist.  Some are up and coming mets and still learning, some are wx enthusiasts, and everything in-between.  One needs to consider all members of the forum here.

[ineedsnow]

this webcam in Rutland VT should be wild soon

 

https://vermontcam.com/rutland-vt-weather-cams/

[WxWatcher007]

Me, whenever AmWx mets draw knives on each other.

[vortex95]

20 minutes ago, TheBudMan said:

*FIGHT* *FIGHT* *FIGHT*     need @Masswx to bring some maturity to this board !!! 

I assume you are being facetious.  As I said, debate/discussion is what the forum is all about on a fundamental level.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

One should avoid typing any word in all caps in a civil discussion/debate on social media.  It is unprofessional and just promotes conflict.

"Not to me anyway?"  No one is above criticism, no one.  Debate/discussion is how science advances.  You really think one can post on a forum like this and not get criticism at times?  And criticism is often thought as always negative.  It is not, not when it done reasonably and w/ civility.  Silencing debate/discussion or making oneself immune/above itall  is not a good thing.

What you seem to be overlooking is that very fact that is criticism and debate are a good thing overall b/c many read the posts, and can learn something from what is said.  Not epiphanies or anything like that, but wx tidbits/info they can take in and absorb, and also can see a productive way to debate/discuss and the way *not* to do it.

Not everyone here is an expert meteorologist.  Some are up and coming mets and still learning, some are wx enthusiasts, and everything in-between.  One needs to consider all members of the forum here.

Everything you've said to me to date has been demonstratively high-handed corrective and/or instructive in content, neither of which was or is necessary.

"YOU'RE" is because the cap-lock was on and I did not see it - not helping that the site is stalling every once in a while.   

"Tough cookies" is perfectly fine - it means...no one is going to really care accept you about hype ( that no one really takes seriously anyway? ) which is endemic to the environment you both choose to be a part, and are not going to change. 

You need to chill

 

 

 

 

[ineedsnow]

storm popping up to the west.. might have to chase if it gets it act together soon

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

storm popping up to the west.. might have to chase if it gets it act together soon

Watch up for NH actually ...

some minoring threat probably subtends down into our neighborhood.

[dendrite]

It’s raining!

[vortex95]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Everything you've said to me to date has been demonstratively high-handed corrective and/or instructive in content, neither of which was or is necessary.

"YOU'RE" is because the cap-lock was on and I did not see it - not helping that the site is stalling every once in a while.   

"Tough cookies" is perfectly fine - it means...no one is going to really care accept you about hype ( that no one really takes seriously anyway? ) which is endemic to the environment you both choose to be a part, and are not going to change. 

You need to chill

 

 

 

 

"High-handed" is a subjective term and instead of going on the defensive perhaps you should consider a more reasonable/productive approach.  I stated clearly previously the value of the debate/discussion.

High-handed means using excessive authority.  How did you arrive at that?  What "authority" are you talking about?  Stating facts and opinion/views are not inherently authoritative.  I have kept this discussion civil and reasonable, and it gets labeled as "high-handed?"

"no one is going to really care accept you about hype ( that no one really takes seriously anyway? ) which is endemic to the environment you both choose to be a part, and are not going to change."

Now you are attacking what I had said on other posts and wx hype and how that influences us all and skewed perception, as if acting like is trivial or no one should care.  Just b/c something is endemic does not make it right or should not be called out in order to 1) make ppl who are willing to listen aware (once again, not everyone is on the same level on this forum as to knowledge/experience) and 2) strive to do better/improve ourselves.

The social part of wx is by *far* the biggest challenge we face now on many fronts.  It's main reason why the NWS has been engaged in IDSS for over 10 years now.   And these social issues exist to the from the very top powers that be to the individual on social media.  It is integral part of wx now, like it or not.  So I am going to bring it up as it relates to the hard meteorology.
 

[dendrite]

The board is so slow we can’t even argue efficiently.

 

[vortex95]

HRRR showing a "Hampton Beach Special."  Right mover!