Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[weatherwiz]

27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm far as I can tell it's only the NAM doing that.   Wouldn't trust it until more support ... but not impossible, no. 

I suppose if you really want it to be right so that you can engage and hopefully win another in the varied petty competitions over weather-related statements that goes on in here, there's nothing wrong with relying on it to make Kevin wrong.

LOL

I am buying the NAM timing...the NAM is usually the model which is a bit too slow. Heights really fall too mid-to-late afternoon, even on the GFS. That too me signals leaning faster with timing (well one reason) 

[dendrite]

82.0/46

Would like these dews 15 higher

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

82.0/46

Would like these dews 15 higher

Give me 25-30 higher

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I am buying the NAM timing...the NAM is usually the model which is a bit too slow. Heights really fall too mid-to-late afternoon, even on the GFS. That too me signals leaning faster with timing (well one reason) 

are you talking about the front, or the thunderstorm triggering -

i suppose you could get that pre frontal quasi dry-line trough thingy in that situation.   That would actually be ahead of the better synoptic support - which I would not ever side with the NAM on synoptic timing dude.  Just don't ...

[Torch Tiger]

35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Saturday is dry for most of SNE

Confidence continues to increase that most, if not all, of the
daylight hours Saturday remain dry, though a brief afternoon shower
cannot be ruled out northwest of the I-91 corridor as a front
approaches from northern New England. Given summerlike warmth and
modest humidity

Yeah, sucks.  We all wanted heavy rain

[Typhoon Tip]

impressive to see Logan sustaining an 81 on a SE 9 kt wind

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

are you talking about the front, or the thunderstorm triggering -

i suppose you could get that pre frontal quasi dry-line trough thingy in that situation.   That would actually be ahead of the better synoptic support - which I would not ever side with the NAM on synoptic timing dude.  Just don't ...

Thunderstorm triggering - and also keeping in mind we'd more than likely be looking at a pre-frontal trough triggering convection. Sunday we more than likely would see the actual cold front as the trigger which goes into Scott's point about Sunday's potential and towards the coast

[Typhoon Tip]

88 ... delta of 40

[vortex95]

14 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

not bad. Grilled some chicken and ripping back a drink

I say we rebrand MD 20/20 for CoastalWx and call it "MAN SNOW!"

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

I say we rebrand MD 20/20 for CoastalWx and call it "MAN SNOW!"

i thought he still drinks Zimas 

[OrangeCTWX]

When do the NAM’s become discontinued? And has the NWS maybe decided against doing that by some chance lol

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Thunderstorm triggering - and also keeping in mind we'd more than likely be looking at a pre-frontal trough triggering convection. Sunday we more than likely would see the actual cold front as the trigger which goes into Scott's point about Sunday's potential and towards the coast

I will give you this much ... waaaaay back when the dinosaurs ruled there was this model called the ETA.  It's the ancient ancestral root of the present era's NAM species....   At every point along a species evolutionary past it had specialized abilities...

In completing this metaphor, the ETA of 1995 was a spectacular tool for a very specific lesser known skill:  convective initiation. That's basically timing when the convective temperature is reached and if there is any inhibition in the region... it is successfully overcome.  We would cross up those metrics and it would say 1:45 pm (say) ...and at 1:38 or 1:57 there it was, the first cell squirting it's load on radar.

That was a lot of generations ago and the present day NAM... yeah, there's heredity there, but I don't know if it shares in that same unique ability like it's ancient forefather.

[CoastalWx]

Some of the models tried getting some better lapse rates in here late Saturday. Obviously that’s probably more of a now cast thing, but could give a little boost to storms if we can get sufficient mid level lapse rates.

[Damage In Tolland]

Stein pattern now

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some of the models tried getting some better lapse rates in here late Saturday. Obviously that’s probably more of a now cast thing, but could give a little boost to storms if we can get sufficient mid level lapse rates.

yeah, that's a good point.

I've come to think based on experience that mlv lapse rate may be our most important metric up here in NE.  Maybe orographic forcing offsets some

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, that's a good point.

I've come to think based on experience that mlv lapse rate may be our most important metric up here in NE.  Maybe the orographic forcing offsets some

It'a not a bad setup. Dews increase, decent s/w, 500 temps cool late day. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Can’t even drop fertilizer with no rains 

[kdxken]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some of the models tried getting some better lapse rates in here late Saturday. Obviously that’s probably more of a now cast thing, but could give a little boost to storms if we can get sufficient mid level lapse rates.

 

[metagraphica]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can’t even drop fertilizer with no rains 

Yep, annoying. Have a brand new field of grass. Would love to drop some extra seed and fert but we Steined.

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

Yep, we know. 

[CoastalWx]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can’t even drop fertilizer with no rains 

Dropped fert and grub ex last Saturday before the hurricane. Give it a day, but I think you have a decent chance of storms. 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Yep, annoying. Have a brand new field of grass. Would love to drop some extra seed and fert but we Steined.

NBM is like .20 or less . Missing out last weekend really hurt 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Dropped fert and grub ex last Saturday before the hurricane. Give it a day, but I think you have a decent chance of storms. 

Not even gonna chance it until it’s a virtual certainty. This time of year if fert sits on grass it totally kills the lawn under hot sun 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not even gonna chance it until it’s a virtual certainty. This time of year if fert sits on grass it totally kills the lawn under hot sun 

Decent setup for you, and do not use NMB for convective stuff. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Decent setup for you, and do not use NMB for convective stuff. 

Can also see scenario where Saturday night is north of 90.. weak , dying stuff here and then Sunday is IJD to you 

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Saturday will have showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon in western mass and then spreading east  after about 5-6 pm. Could be a few decent boomers around. Looks like another chance of showers and storms Sunday afternoon in SNE particularly closer to the coast with some convergence.

Sat looking good.  WxWiz needs the the tstm "hit!"  And then Scott "Ossipee" hailers moving N-S on Sun.

Can't get rid of these cold 500 troughs rotating through and the blocking.  If the 00z ECMWF is correct, after Sat, no sig heat or dew point (gin and) juice UFN for eastern sections.

[Typhoon Tip]

DPs low but it's hot... 89 ... that's about the cut-off where lower DP no longer saves...

Hot day

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Sat looking good.  WxWiz needs the the tstm "hit!"  And then Scott "Ossipee" hailers moving N-S on Sun.

Can't get rid of these cold 500 troughs rotating through and the blocking.  If the 00z ECMWF is correct, after Sat, no sig heat or dew point (gin and) juice UFN for eastern sections.

The ensembles get rid of that propensity and start to retro a trough a bit to the GL. I think second half of month turns a corner, and not just because of climo.

[tamarack]

As May 2026 expired while we were in SNJ, I'll put its history here.  Some data are averages from nearby sites, though the 31 on 5/31 is a certainty.

Avg max:    63.9   0.8 BN     Warmest was 86, on the 19th.
Avg min:     39.2   0.8 BN     Coolest was 26, on the 4th and 9th.
Mean:         51.6    0.8 BN     As both March and April were AN, met spring averaged 0.7 AN.

Precip:   4.17"    0.20" AN.   Wettest day; 1.40" on the 15th.   May 2025 was also AN, but the 10 of the 11 months thru last April were BN.

Nothing out of the ordinary this May.  The 2nd and the 2nd from last were windy and cold (2nd had some IP as well) but beyond those 2 days, little was particularly memorable. 
 

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The ensembles get rid of that propensity and start to retro a trough a bit to the GL. I think second half of month turns a corner, and not just because of climo.

00z Euro was trying to finish as a significant move toward what you describe.    It also was warm run over all.

In fact, I'm not seeing a lot of "cool"  either.  I think this summer's sort of pattern dictated at this point.  Like we'll be shifting between 65 and 90 and not 40fuckum7 and 65