Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[weatherwiz]

27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm far as I can tell it's only the NAM doing that.   Wouldn't trust it until more support ... but not impossible, no. 

I suppose if you really want it to be right so that you can engage and hopefully win another in the varied petty competitions over weather-related statements that goes on in here, there's nothing wrong with relying on it to make Kevin wrong.

LOL

I am buying the NAM timing...the NAM is usually the model which is a bit too slow. Heights really fall too mid-to-late afternoon, even on the GFS. That too me signals leaning faster with timing (well one reason) 

[dendrite]

82.0/46

Would like these dews 15 higher

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

82.0/46

Would like these dews 15 higher

Give me 25-30 higher

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I am buying the NAM timing...the NAM is usually the model which is a bit too slow. Heights really fall too mid-to-late afternoon, even on the GFS. That too me signals leaning faster with timing (well one reason) 

are you talking about the front, or the thunderstorm triggering -

i suppose you could get that pre frontal quasi dry-line trough thingy in that situation.   That would actually be ahead of the better synoptic support - which I would not ever side with the NAM on synoptic timing dude.  Just don't ...

[Torch Tiger]

35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Saturday is dry for most of SNE

Confidence continues to increase that most, if not all, of the
daylight hours Saturday remain dry, though a brief afternoon shower
cannot be ruled out northwest of the I-91 corridor as a front
approaches from northern New England. Given summerlike warmth and
modest humidity

Yeah, sucks.  We all wanted heavy rain

[Typhoon Tip]

impressive to see Logan sustaining an 81 on a SE 9 kt wind

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

are you talking about the front, or the thunderstorm triggering -

i suppose you could get that pre frontal quasi dry-line trough thingy in that situation.   That would actually be ahead of the better synoptic support - which I would not ever side with the NAM on synoptic timing dude.  Just don't ...

Thunderstorm triggering - and also keeping in mind we'd more than likely be looking at a pre-frontal trough triggering convection. Sunday we more than likely would see the actual cold front as the trigger which goes into Scott's point about Sunday's potential and towards the coast

[Typhoon Tip]

88 ... delta of 40

[vortex95]

14 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

not bad. Grilled some chicken and ripping back a drink

I say we rebrand MD 20/20 for CoastalWx and call it "MAN SNOW!"

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

I say we rebrand MD 20/20 for CoastalWx and call it "MAN SNOW!"

i thought he still drinks Zimas 

[OrangeCTWX]

When do the NAM’s become discontinued? And has the NWS maybe decided against doing that by some chance lol

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Thunderstorm triggering - and also keeping in mind we'd more than likely be looking at a pre-frontal trough triggering convection. Sunday we more than likely would see the actual cold front as the trigger which goes into Scott's point about Sunday's potential and towards the coast

I will give you this much ... waaaaay back when the dinosaurs ruled there was this model called the ETA.  It's the ancient ancestral root of the present era's NAM species....   At every point along a species evolutionary past it had specialized abilities...

In completing this metaphor, the ETA of 1995 was a spectacular tool for a very specific lesser known skill:  convective initiation. That's basically timing when the convective temperature is reached and if there is any inhibition in the region... it is successfully overcome.  We would cross up those metrics and it would say 1:45 pm (say) ...and at 1:38 or 1:57 there it was, the first cell squirting it's load on radar.

That was a lot of generations ago and the present day NAM... yeah, there's heredity there, but I don't know if it shares in that same unique ability like it's ancient forefather.

[CoastalWx]

Some of the models tried getting some better lapse rates in here late Saturday. Obviously that’s probably more of a now cast thing, but could give a little boost to storms if we can get sufficient mid level lapse rates.

[Damage In Tolland]

Stein pattern now

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some of the models tried getting some better lapse rates in here late Saturday. Obviously that’s probably more of a now cast thing, but could give a little boost to storms if we can get sufficient mid level lapse rates.

yeah, that's a good point.

I've come to think based on experience that mlv lapse rate may be our most important metric up here in NE.  Maybe orographic forcing offsets some

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, that's a good point.

I've come to think based on experience that mlv lapse rate may be our most important metric up here in NE.  Maybe the orographic forcing offsets some

It'a not a bad setup. Dews increase, decent s/w, 500 temps cool late day. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Can’t even drop fertilizer with no rains