Summer 2026 Banter Thread

[sbnwx85]

Hmmm...

Meteorologist Ahmad Bajjey 

ordeonsSptl35ca7fc4lh6f7106413028f4t6g5u9a984m79fai3faif4l2m ·

This is going to be a bit of a read, but I want to draw your attention to something I've covered before.

A little over a year ago, sweeping cuts to NOAA caused a large number of NWS locations to trim weather balloon launches either to 1 per day instead of the normal 2, or to remove launches completely. Upper-air data, the information collected by these, is the primary and overwhelming input factor into computer models. These go to everything from our forecasts, to NWS, to your app, to AI, etc. Model data fuels it all. Now, models are only as good as the data it ingests, and the more often or better the data, the more likely we can target a more accurate forecast.

Notice I said more accurate, not perfect. We're not, but we do pretty darn well.

Moving on.

We started seeing data in models showing issues from a lack of input months ago, but I don't believe I've seen a NOAA office actually say it out loud until now. The Storm Prediction Center, the ones who are the best of the best when it comes to severe and destructive weather, creates all the daily severe weather outlooks, specifically stating they could not confirm an important part of the forecast because there was no measurement. No balloons over the Rockies or the plains this morning. Balloons launch at 0Z and 12Z each day, or they used to, and that lack of information not only affects the models but also the ability to create accurate forecasts. Kansas saw this exact issue to devastating effect this spring. We saw this issue when the northern MI ice storm showed horrible amounts of ice, and the amount was still more than any worst-case scenario model showed, as we lacked good input data from no launches in Green Bay and a single launch from Gaylord.

Now, today, they all launched special 18Z balloons. Those happen on expected severe weather days. But these don't help morning or midday models, forecasts, or even aid in updating, as that is the usual window where storms may begin. Think of it like looking at a forecast, wherever that may be, and it saying to expect bad weather while it's already begun to hit.

I say all of this because these are the facts. They're not pleasant, but the numbers don't lie; there is a measurable decline in model input and accuracy output. This affects every single forecaster, streamer, and app in the country. We all use the same info. And now a large agency has mentioned it directly. That's rather large weather news.

[Brian D]

June 4

1935: The latest official measurable snowfall in Minnesota falls at Mizpah on this date with 1.5 inches.

For Thursday, June 4, 2026
1825 - A hurricane struck Long Island NY leveling trees and causing damage to ships. The early season hurricane, which originated around Cuba, caused major damage along the Atlantic coast from Charleston SC to New York City. Many were lost at sea. (David Ludlum)
1860 - Iowa's Commanche Tornado , with wind speeds estimated in excess of 300 mph, was unquestionably one of the worst experienced by early settlers, with nearly a million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel) (Note: You can read about this tornado event here: https://www.tswails.com/single-post/the-camanche-iowa-tornado-june-3-1860
1982 - A four day storm began over New England which produced up to 14 inches of rain in southern Connecticut breaching twenty-three dams and breaking two others. Damage was estimated at more than 276 million dollars. (David Ludlum)
1987 - Early morning thunderstorms in south Texas produced 6.5 inches of rain at Hockheim, and five inches at Hallettsville, in just a few hours. Afternoon thunderstorms in Virginia deluged northern Halifax County with 5.5 inches of rain in two hours. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 76 mph at Dusty WA, and wind gusts to 88 mph at Swanquarter NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1988 - A dozen cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Atlantic City NJ with a reading of 40 degrees. Fifteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Glasgow MT and Havre MT with readings of 102 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)
1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Southern Plains Region and the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southern Atlantic Coast Region during the day and into the night. Just four tornadoes were reported, but there were 87 reports of large hail and damaging winds. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[Brian D]

June 5

1930: Heavy rain falls at Waseca. 4.3 inches of rain would fall over 24 hours.

 

1915: This date marks the first of a long stretch of days of measurable rain at Winton near Ely. Measurable rain would fall on each day until 19th. The total amount of rain for the fifteen days was over six inches.

For Friday, June 5, 2026
1859 - Frost was reported from Iowa to New England. The temperature dipped to 25 degrees in New York State, and up to two inches of snow blanketed Ohio. The cold and snow damaged the wheat crop. (David Ludlum)
1908 - Helena MT was deluged with 3.67 inches of rain to establish their all-time 24 hour rainfall record. (4th-5th) (The Weather Channel)
1916 - A tornado struck the town of Warren AR killing 83 persons. There were 125 deaths that day in a tornado outbreak across Missouri and Arkansas. (David Ludlum)
1917 - Residents near Topeka KS reported disk-shaped hailstones six to ten inches in diameter, and two to three inches thick. The hailstorm was accompanied by a tornado. (The Weather Channel) (Note: Very rare, wow!)
1987 - International Falls, MN, dipped to a record low reading of 34 degrees during the morning. Williston, ND, and Glasgow, MT, reported record warm afternoon highs of 94 degrees. Major flooding was reported along the Guadelupe River in South Texas, with the water level at Cuero reaching 18 feet above flood stage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1988 - Twenty cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Asheville NC with a reading of 40 degrees. Fifteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 108 degrees at Glasgow MT was a record for June. (The National Weather Summary)
1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southern Atlantic Coast during the day and into the night. Four tornadoes were reported, and there were 87 reports of large hail and damaging winds. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)