May 2026 Obs/Discussion

[WinterWolf]

Almost 80 here at 8:44 am 

[dendrite]

41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not sure the FIT one is right.  

There is/was a warm boundary sort of washing out overnight, but at 1:35 am that site was 61 F like everywhere around it within 10 clicks, then ...2:15 am it's 77.  Seems a bit handsome for that hour of the night.  I checked some of the surrounding NWS tweener sites and they did show a modest indication for some sort of warmth penetrating the sfc but not 15 to 17 worth - not even close to that amount. 

Not sure.  Seems suss

Looks legit to me. They mixed out. There were random periods of overnight mixing across the region…like at MPV.

[Damage In Tolland]

No storms and a rainy 3 day weekend in the 40’s . Sounds perfect for our regions run of luck last 5-6 years

[CT Valley Snowman]

We need the robots to pull through for a best case scenario this weekend.  

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks legit to me. They mixed out. There were random periods of overnight mixing across the region…like at MPV.

heh... we did not... I was 61 until twilight glow ... 81 now

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh... we did not... I was 61 until twilight glow ... 81 now

You can see how quickly it shot up once that wind went from calm to like 10+ sustained.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You can see how quickly it shot up once that wind went from calm to like 10+ sustained.

yeah... I wasn't sure.  It just looked too much.  I couldn't find any surrounding sites that matched that amount. 

The other aspect ...  that FIT site's in a bowl.   ...figuratively speaking.  It's like the lowest spot around that immediate countryside.  Winds being so light at the regional scope doesn't lend to scouring out at 2am but who knows.   Having said that ... FIT has always appeared right to me in the past - not a lot of history of odd ball numbers, either.  'c'mon FIT! what are ya doin' to me'

Sterling  7 or so miles away, S along 91 around the same time FIT had it's 16 point bump

Weather conditions for:
EW4324 Sterling, MA (APRSWXNET/CWOP - BOX)
Elev: 636.75 ft; Lat/Lon: 42.43967/-71.78417

May 19, 3:00 am	72	63	74		SW	1G4	1017.60	29.38	30.07	0	--	0.00	0.00
May 19, 2:54 am	72	63	73		SSW	2G6	1017.60	29.38	30.07	0	--	0.00	0.00
May 19, 2:45 am	72	63	74		SW	2G5	1017.60	29.38	30.07	0	--	0.00	0.00
May 19, 2:36 am	72	63	74		SSW	2G5	1017.94	29.39	30.08	0	--	0.00	0.00
May 19, 2:29 am	72	63	73		SW	2G4	1017.94	29.39	30.08	0	--	0.00	0.00
May 19, 2:18 am	72	63	74		SW	2G8	1018.27	29.40	30.09	0	--	0.00	0.00
May 19, 2:09 am	72	63	74		SW	1G5	1018.27	29.40	30.09	0	--	0.00	0.00
May 19, 2:02 am	71	62	74		SSW	1G5	1018.32	29.40	30.09	0	--	0.00	0.00
May 19, 1:54 am	71	62	74		WSW	1G6	1018.32	29.40	30.09	0	--	0.00	0.00
May 19, 1:47 am	71	62	74		WSW	1G4	1018.32	29.40	30.09	0	--	0.00	0.00
May 19, 1:36 am	71	62	74		SW	1G4	1018.32	29.40	30.09	0	--	0.00	0.00
May 19, 1:29 am	71	62	74		SSW	1G3	1018.32	29.40	30.09	0	--	0.00	0.00

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You can see how quickly it shot up once that wind went from calm to like 10+ sustained.

Put it in a textbook for mixing.

[Typhoon Tip]

84 ...  feels meaner

[kdxken]

86 in the woodyard. Umbrella up. 

 

[kdxken]

46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No storms and a rainy 3 day weekend in the 40’s . Sounds perfect for our regions run of luck last 5-6 years

 

[dendrite]

Just now, kdxken said:

 

AI learning what the people want

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

AI learning what the people want

Hilarious ...

thing is, ...I wondered that last winter.   Seriously.  I mean, I ask and ask and looked it up, and no one/source could give me a clear a-b-c, much less impression, about how these tools derive their values.

Looked suspiciously like derivatives have nothing to do with it. 

Anyway, perhaps there's something about their "mechanics" that is more than lesser known these days. Haven't followed thru.  But I tongue-in-cheek mused that these AI tools were just Google on steroids, going out and reading the entire Internet cloud, where there's obviously a fairly large/significant influence statistic of Ineedsnow mongers ... That would explain why the snow was always farther N-W ... etc    haha. 

[Typhoon Tip]

86 to 88 at 10 am in the local area.  

Looking at higher res vis sat, clouds don't appear to be an option.   Very low wind to offer ventilation... 

Does this solitary afternoon end up being the biggest heat of the summer? 

[HoarfrostHubb]

85 at home, 85 at work before 10AM   

Let's add 10!!!

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

86 to 88 at 10 am in the local area.  

Looking at higher res vis sat, clouds don't appear to be an option.   Very low wind to offer ventilation... 

Does this solitary afternoon end up being the biggest heat of the summer? 

I was thinking that might be the case for me   

[HoarfrostHubb]

It has happened before.  Highest temp in May (maybe even April for someone on here one year?)

[dendrite]

Yeah I swear every 10 mins when I refresh my station it’s up another degree. 

81.1° and there’s still soggy spots in the yard.

10am ASH and FIT gone wild

[weatherwiz]

3km liking southern VT/NH into northern ORH County today 

[dendrite]

BML had a low of 47° and went from 53° to 84° in 3 hours. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

Running a bit behind here, 83 and flow is more light S.   

[weatherwiz]

3km is a shutout tomorrow and the HRRR has development from eastern PA moving across NJ, southern CT, and southern RI lol. 3km probably ran using Breslow's algorithm 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

3km is a shutout tomorrow and the HRRR has development from eastern PA moving across NJ, southern CT, and southern RI lol. 3km probably run using Breslow's algorithm 

I thought the other day the models were too liberal with theta-e advection/pooling N/E of NYC just because the the antecedence has been a bit of a dry anomaly.   Not sure if that'll be the case ...buuut, right turning clusters Pacman gobbling CAPE toward the source seems like an option in this synopsis, either way.

[dendrite]

83.0°

The usual S-SW downslope spots are torching. North of the whites and NE of ORH hills

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I thought the other day the models were too liberal with theta-e advection/pooling N/E of NYC just because the the antecedence has been a bit of a dry anomaly.   Not sure if that'll be the case ...buuut, right turning clusters Pacman gobbling CAPE toward the source seems like an option in this synopsis, either way.

Not too mention the BL flow becoming a bit more westerly...which may be related more to a faster FROPA. Looks like better convergence towards the south coast

[CoastalWx]

Man this is great stuff. Look how excited everyone is.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Not too mention the BL flow becoming a bit more westerly...which may be related more to a faster FROPA. Looks like better convergence towards the south coast

Tomorrow is a South Coast day. Probably like a BDR-PVD-PYM on south.

[CoastalWx]

86/73. Dews maybe a bit high on the Davis but it’s muggy. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Tomorrow is a South Coast day. Probably like a BDR-PVD-PYM on south.

yup...north today, south tomorrow. damn.

NAM came back down to Earth too with the mlvl lapse rates...had a feeling it was a bit too aggressive with the steeper lapse rates. DCAPE not bad though...probably see some scattered wind damage reports tomorrow along that swath you mentioned

[weatherwiz]

One underrated aspect that is going to suck about the RRFS replacing the various meso models is it runs MUCH slower