Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good point, I hadn't noticed that...it's actually like +4F.

Just taking that [temperature] map from face value, I would take that as just a massive flood of PAC air into North America but the structure of those temperature anomalies I think can be the product of two scenarios:

1. A configuration in which Arctic air is displaced well south (akin to a +PNA/-AO combo)

2. Those colder anomalies in the south are the product of extensive clouds and precipitation, so the anomalies are more of a product of diurnal departures versus the result of a pattern favoring colder air displaced south. 

If that product is showing extreme cold departures on the other side of the hemisphere, then I would absolutely believe scenario 2. Now, obviously, at our latitude even slightly above temperatures can be fine for snow. So I'm not stating we'll be snowless...but it just adds another difficulty we'd have to contend with. But...the structure of the precipitation anomalies, sort of indicates to me increased potential for cyclogenesis off the SE coast...I'd take chances with bringing storms up the coast and just hoping we can get a far enough offshore storm track and pull in some cold. As you know, a "furnace" in southeast Canada does not mean lack of "cold"

[soadforecasterx]

@weatherwiz Believe this is what you wanted to see. 

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

@weatherwiz Believe this is what you wanted to see. 

Thank you.

Well I'll be damned, that probably is some Arctic or Polar air being displaced south into the U.S. Well if that is the case...this could set the stage for a very big winter  

Actually, going from memory here but this kind of has 1957-1958 vibes?

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Just taking that [temperature] map from face value, I would take that as just a massive flood of PAC air into North America but the structure of those temperature anomalies I think can be the product of two scenarios:

1. A configuration in which Arctic air is displaced well south (akin to a +PNA/-AO combo)

2. Those colder anomalies in the south are the product of extensive clouds and precipitation, so the anomalies are more of a product of diurnal departures versus the result of a pattern favoring colder air displaced south. 

If that product is showing extreme cold departures on the other side of the hemisphere, then I would absolutely believe scenario 2. Now, obviously, at our latitude even slightly above temperatures can be fine for snow. So I'm not stating we'll be snowless...but it just adds another difficulty we'd have to contend with. But...the structure of the precipitation anomalies, sort of indicates to me increased potential for cyclogenesis off the SE coast...I'd take chances with bringing storms up the coast and just hoping we can get a far enough offshore storm track and pull in some cold. As you know, a "furnace" in southeast Canada does not mean lack of "cold"

Yea, I know it will be warm....otherwise I'd be expecting well above average snowfall given the amount of percip. we should see. I think normal snowfall is about our ceiling this year if everything breaks right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Thank you.

Well I'll be damned, that probably is some Arctic or Polar air being displaced south into the U.S. Well if that is the case...this could set the stage for a very big winter  

Actually, going from memory here but this kind of has 1957-1958 vibes?

Yes....maybe a bit of 1965 and 1986, too....though the latter is a poor extra tropical Pacific match.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think we will tap that cold in Siberia for a brief interval or two during the second half.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes....maybe a bit of 1965 and 1986, too....though the latter is a poor extra tropical Pacific match.

You know what's funny...

In one of my spring classes we were going over the various models and seasonal models and I remember commenting that the CFS was looking like 1957-1958-ish. I now remember at that time thinking that despite potential for a super strong EL Nino, this winter could surprise and deviate greatly from some of the previous events...maybe I need to get back on that train  

But I have very little trust in these seasonal models really. I think they are weighted on climatological mean/average, especially when ENSO is a big player. So say if the forecast is for a weak event or a strong event...the output is going to closely resemble that of "averaging" weak or strong events but there is alot of variability between individual events and I am not sure these models are built to "understand" that

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

You know what's funny...

In one of my spring classes we were going over the various models and seasonal models and I remember commenting that the CFS was looking like 1957-1958-ish. I now remember at that time thinking that despite potential for a super strong EL Nino, this winter could surprise and deviate greatly from some of the previous events...maybe I need to get back on that train  

But I have very little trust in these seasonal models really. I think they are weighted on climatological mean/average, especially when ENSO is a big player. So say if the forecast is for a weak event or a strong event...the output is going to closely resemble that of "averaging" weak or strong events but there is alot of variability between individual events and I am not sure these models are built to "understand" that

Well, it was discussed in the main ENSO thread that the JMA actually nailed the Aleutian ridge this summer, which is NOT stock El Nino....frankly, neither is the -NAO that is being flagged by all guidance, even the EURO...so they are seeing something beyond ENSO. I think it's valid, albeit overcooked. We aren't getting a DJFM mean -NAO, but it does speak to the volatility of the coming season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

My largest knock on 1957 is it occurred right near solar max, which is not as hostile to blocking as descending solar, but that it just one factor.

[Pennfisherman]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I know it will be warm....otherwise I'd be expecting well above average snowfall given the amount of percip. we should see. I think normal snowfall is about our ceiling this year if everything breaks right.

I would imagine we don't have those long stretches of snow on the ground even if we hit normal snowfall. Seems likely if we have good storms the snow wont stick around long. I had snow on the ground for most of last winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Pennfisherman said:

I would imagine we don't have those long stretches of snow on the ground even if we hit normal snowfall. Seems likely if we have good storms the snow wont stick around long. I had snow on the ground for most of last winter. 

For the most part, but I could see a good 3 week stretch between mid January and mid February we're that could be decent retention. 1983 was like that.

[stadiumwave]

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My largest knock on 1957 is it occurred right near solar max, which is not as hostile to blocking as descending solar, but that it just one factor.

Aren't we still right near solar max (like 2002-03 and 2014-15, which were both great, el nino/+ENSO winters)?

[bristolri_wx]

Interesting read/analysis:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/super-el-nino-builds-atmospheric-hurricane-shield-winter-2026-2027-connections-united-states-canada-fa/

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Aren't we still right near solar max (like 2002-03 and 2014-15, which were both great, el nino/+ENSO winters)?

No...2 years removed, approaching geomagnetic peak.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bristolri_wx said:

Interesting read/analysis:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/super-el-nino-builds-atmospheric-hurricane-shield-winter-2026-2027-connections-united-states-canada-fa/

Let me guess....he favors big time blocking. 

[bristolri_wx]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Let me guess....he favors big time blocking. 

"...But what I have also found is a connection in the stratosphere. The image below shows a warmer winter stratosphere and a weaker/disrupted Polar Vortex, following a slow hurricane season. This does not imply that hurricane season directly impacts the Polar Vortex, but there is likely a common El Niño factor at play that also includes the Pacific impacts and atmospheric waves.

With this in mind, I loaded and plotted the latest forecast data for the stratosphere. Below you can see the Polar Vortex wind forecast, which is how we estimate its strength. In this latest seasonal data, we can clearly see an interesting deceleration and a potential disruption trend starting in early January..."

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

"...But what I have also found is a connection in the stratosphere. The image below shows a warmer winter stratosphere and a weaker/disrupted Polar Vortex, following a slow hurricane season. This does not imply that hurricane season directly impacts the Polar Vortex, but there is likely a common El Niño factor at play that also includes the Pacific impacts and atmospheric waves.

With this in mind, I loaded and plotted the latest forecast data for the stratosphere. Below you can see the Polar Vortex wind forecast, which is how we estimate its strength. In this latest seasonal data, we can clearly see an interesting deceleration and a potential disruption trend starting in early January..."

Shocker....

He favors blocking every season if you go back and read through his stuff. He keeps touting super El Nino as being very disruptive to the PV, but neglects the fact that we are 0-4 in triggering a SSW during a super El Nino. He likes to cherry pick data to suit his agenda...what he doesn't mention is that the portion of the solar cycle (descending) that predisposes the Pacific basin to super El Nino is very hostile to the development of sustained high latitude blocking. He harped on the sea ice pattern over the summer as a factor in the argument for  blocking this winter, but failed to mention that it only has predictive value during the easterly phase of the QBO.

Needless to say, I'm about as much of a fan of his work as he is of objectivity. That said, they do make for interesting reads and he has some cool graphics.

[CoastalWx]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Shocker....

He favors blocking every season if you go back and read through his stuff. He keeps touting super El Nino as being very disruptive to the PV, but neglects the fact that we are 0-4 in triggering a SSW during a super El Nino. He likes to cherry pick data to suit his agenda...what he doesn't mention is that the portion of the solar cycle (descending) that predisposes the Pacific basin to super El Nino is very hostile to the development of sustained high latitude blocking. He harped on the sea ice pattern over the summer as a factor in the argument for  blocking this winter, but failed to mention that it only has predictive value during the easterly phase of the QBO.

Needless to say, I'm about as much of a fan of his work as he is of objectivity. That said, they do make for interesting reads and he has some cool graphics.

The logic used to be a busier hurricane season favors blocking in the winter. Although that was kind of old school thinking, not sure if that is applicable now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The logic used to be a busier hurricane season favors blocking in the winter. Although that was kind of old school thinking, not sure if that is applicable now.

There is some validity to that, but it's more useful during cool ENSO. There probably is some statistical connection between very inactive hurricane seasons and poor subsequent winters due to super El Nino.

[Typhoon Tip]

The planetary wave dispersion (terminating warm advection as it washes out into higher latitudes...) I suspect is going to deliver positive flux over the grander time scale of the whole season. This positive anomaly/amount, because of the a super-position of the whopper +ENSO over top CC.

..sneaky hinted of that: the negative anomalies over the western Pacific oceanic basin are not creating a 0 when subtracting those anomalies from the positives associate with the El Nino. This means there is a surplus of thermodynamic sourcing in the Pacific/atmosphere holistic coupling. It's not hurting that the Atlantic "El Nino" is likely ongoing - currently the MDR is in 3rd historically... 

But all that is servicing blocking.  Post cyclone deaths at 65 N/Ferrel latitudes ... positive heights nodes may materialize and decay, probably along shorter life spans than the "real" intraseasonal blocking events.  

Blocking can materialize from a different geophysical pathways.  But as stronger cyclones curl into their death from mid --> higher latitudes, that warmth/latent transport gets dump into the mid and higher altitudes, and that flux - endemic to this year - may present a positive anomaly response into those regions.  hat would transiently look like blocking but won't last long enough for the teleconnector correlation to realize.   Probably a great year for NAO migraine modeling    

...think 'popping off' while in wait of real wave# related variants.  If the latter never takes place, I could see this as being faux applied for 'taking credit' for outlooks related to blocking. "right for the wrong reason". 

'Sides, I may have this backward at the moment but isn't +AO correlated with the descending solar after a spring--> summer bombardment by active disk? 

Supposition/conjecture:  It would be harder - also - to parse out how much is because of CC/ENSO superposition, vs how much is truly evolved out of the "winter time rendition of the inter -annual circumglobal teleconnector"  - it's a summer correlation but I think that's bullshit.  It applies, though modulated in why some years have more Asian blocking vs NE Pac vs Greenland ...etc, or not at all... And it has a strong correlation - I believe - with the AAM tendencies. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The planetary wave dispersion (terminating warm advection as it washes out into higher latitudes...) I suspect is going to deliver positive flux over the grander time scale of the whole season. This positive anomaly/amount, because of the a super-position of the whopper +ENSO over top CC.

..sneaky hinted of that: the negative anomalies over the western Pacific oceanic Basic are not creating a 0 when subtracting those anomalies from the positives associate with the El Nino. This means there is a surplus of thermodynamic sourcing in the Pacific/atmosphere holistic coupling. It's not hurting that the Atlantic "El Nino" is likely going on - currently the MDR is in 3rd historically... 

But all that is servicing blocking.  Post cyclone deaths at 65 N/Ferrel latitudes ... positive heights nodes may materialize and decay, probably along shorter life spans than the "real" intraseasonal blocking events.  

Blocking can materialize from a different geophysical pathways.  But as stronger cyclones curl into their death from mid --> higher latitudes, that warmth/latent transport gets dump into the mid and higher altitudes, and that flux - endemic to this year - may present a positive anomaly response into those regions.  hat would transiently look like blocking but won't last long enough for the teleconnector correlation to realize.   Probably a great year NAO migraine modeling    

...think 'popping off' while in wait of real wave# related variants.  If the latter never takes place, I could see this as being faux applied for 'taking credit' for outlooks related to blocking. "right for the wrong reason". 

'Sides, I may have this backward at the moment but isn't +AO correlated with the descending solar after a spring--> summer bombardment by active disk? 

Supposition/conjecture:  It would be harder - also - to parse out how much is because of CC/ENSO superposition, vs how much is truly evolved out of the "winter time rendition of the inter -annual circumglobal teleconnector"  - it's a summer correlation but I think that's bullshit.  It applies, though modulated in why some years have more Asian blocking vs NE Pac vs Greenland ...etc, or not at all... And it has a strong correlation - I believe - with the AAM tendencies. 

It's more +NAO....AO is pretty much a push, but I would hedge towards subtle negative given my composite.

I think we will def. have some -NAO periods....I just don't think it will be a mean DJFM -NAO. I also don't expect a SSW....it will be triggered more by strat reflection, etc...

[Typhoon Tip]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's more +NAO....AO is pretty much a push, but I would hedge towards subtle negative given my composite.

I think we will def. have some -NAO periods....I just don't think it will be a mean DJFM -NAO. I also don't expect a SSW....it will be triggered more by strat reflection, etc...

You know ...this reminds me ...

I have noted recurring tendency during late autumns and early/mid winters of the last decade. It takes place spanning the N arc of the Pacific latitudes ... It appears the lower rim of the strata vortex in that area is being "bulged" skyward from below.   

Among other consequences...this has given faux impressions of SSWs.  It's hard to blame anyone for assuming so when it is collocated in timing with SSW climo anyway.  And so, this was perfect for social media moguls out there to pounce and sound brilliantly insightful for their adoring social media followers. 

But they were/are wrong.  That's not what's taken place.  This is evidenced by the fact that post those there were not very clear downward propagation of thermal masses noted ( tho admittedly looking quite similar to an SSW thermal intrusion).  However the wave breaks were weak. The reversal were not sustained ... as it were, the situations mimicked ( "tricked" may be more apropos) many into the SSW circle jerk.  And the AO's didn't go through the correlated negative phase..etc. Last year there was a weak SSW later in the year, but aspects noted above were also more evidenced - all taking place after the earlier season bulging thing.

So what was it then?  It's speculative ... but certainly plausible.  What I believe what's been taking place is that the troposphere all over the planet is beginning to "swell" for lack of better word.  And yes ... it may chap ass but too bad. Stop eating denial tacos and that'll go away ... it's CC that's doing it. 

For the newbs ...   Warmth = increasing volume.  That's nature 101.  And it's also why there is any weather on the planet.   If one doesn't get that or understand it...strongly recommend two recourses:  Learn it, or, don't engage in this hobby.   PV=NrT 

Pressure * Volume = #mol * gas constant for free mixed air * Temperature.   Because mass is never lost or destroyed, "#mol" can be set to 1.  The gas constant is also a persistent factor in all volumes/homogeneity so.. toss that.  That leaves a rather simplified variant of PV= T in the ongoing "machinery"

When CC is empirically measured in both the air, the ocean, and most importantly, the couple atmospheric ocean holistic system, that means that the other side of this equation, the P and/or V necessarily has to also rise.  There are a lot of refereed and adjudicated material/papers out there related to "The troposphere is expanding due to anthropogenic climate change"  ( https://bulletin.cmos.ca/the-troposphere-is-expanding-due-to-anthropogenic-climate-change/)  just to mention one in a large compendium

I suggest the N. Pac bulging tropopausal anomaly of the late autumns and early winters is perhaps a new seasonal behavior associated with the expanded troposphere, but to be mistaken as an Sudden Stratospheric Warm intrusion.  

As an after thought ...it's perhaps a geometric identity - creating usage.  The SSW come into the sidewall of the stratospheric vortex cylinder.  The bulging stuff is elevating from beneath, but since the measuring is fixed to the altitude, the warmth may be falsely associated.

 

[michsnowfreak]

20 hours ago, Pennfisherman said:

I would imagine we don't have those long stretches of snow on the ground even if we hit normal snowfall. Seems likely if we have good storms the snow wont stick around long. I had snow on the ground for most of last winter. 

Exactly what I have been saying to my local weather group chat for Southeast MI. Theres not going to be snow on the ground almost all winter like last year, but the seasonal total is still wide up in the air. I do feel it will be subpar in true strong Nino fashion, but not crazy bad. We rely more on frequent snowfall than a big storm. We are not going to get a 2-3' noreaster (our big storms are 6-12") so its going to be how many snowy periods will there be? Warm, wet Dec followed by cold, dry Jan/Feb is usually a worry for some of the strong Ninos past (57-58, 65-66) but Im not as worried about super dry this time. The east coast should love the "potential" with the wet signal on all models.

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know ...this reminds me ...

I have noted recurring tendency during late autumns and early/mid winters of the last decade. It takes place spanning the N arc of the Pacific latitudes ... It appears the lower rim of the strata vortex in that area is being "bulged" skyward from below.   

Among other consequences...this has given faux impressions of SSWs.  It's hard to blame anyone for assuming so when it is collocated in timing with SSW climo anyway.  And so, this was perfect for social media moguls out there to pounce and sound brilliantly insightful for their adoring social media followers. 

But they were/are wrong.  That's not what's taken place.  This is evidenced by the fact that post those there were not very clear downward propagation of thermal masses noted ( tho admittedly looking quite similar to an SSW thermal intrusion).  However the wave breaks were weak. The reversal were not sustained ... as it were, the situations mimicked ( "tricked" may be more apropos) many into the SSW circle jerk.  And the AO's didn't go through the correlated negative phase..etc. Last year there was a weak SSW later in the year, but aspects noted above were also more evidenced - all taking place after the earlier season bulging thing.

So what was it then?  It's speculative ... but certainly plausible.  What I believe what's been taking place is that the troposphere all over the planet is beginning to "swell" for lack of better word.  And yes ... it may chap ass but too bad. Stop eating denial tacos and that'll go away ... it's CC that's doing it. 

For the newbs ...   Warmth = increasing volume.  That's nature 101.  And it's also why there is any weather on the planet.   If one doesn't get that or understand it...strongly recommend two recourses:  Learn it, or, don't engage in this hobby.   PV=NrT 

Pressure * Volume = #mol * gas constant for free mixed air * Temperature.   Because mass is never lost or destroyed, "#mol" can be set to 1.  The gas constant is also a persistent factor in all volumes/homogeneity so.. toss that.  That leaves a rather simplified variant of PV= T in the ongoing "machinery"

When CC is empirically measured in both the air, the ocean, and most importantly, the couple atmospheric ocean holistic system, that means that the other side of this equation, the P and/or V necessarily has to also rise.  There are a lot of refereed and adjudicated material/papers out there related to "The troposphere is expanding due to anthropogenic climate change"  ( https://bulletin.cmos.ca/the-troposphere-is-expanding-due-to-anthropogenic-climate-change/)  just to mention one in a large compendium

I suggest the N. Pac bulging tropopausal anomaly of the late autumns and early winters is perhaps a new seasonal behavior associated with the expanded troposphere, but to be mistaken as an Sudden Stratospheric Warm intrusion.  

As an after thought ...it's perhaps a geometric identity - creating usage.  The SSW come into the sidewall of the stratospheric vortex cylinder.  The bulging stuff is elevating from beneath, but since the measuring is fixed to the altitude, the warmth may be falsely associated.

 

Just as an aside, SSW climo time frame isn't late autumn and early winter.... mid winter, okay....last season was very rare in that regard.

[forkyfork]

55 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Exactly what I have been saying to my local weather group chat for Southeast MI. Theres not going to be snow on the ground almost all winter like last year, but the seasonal total is still wide up in the air. I do feel it will be subpar in true strong Nino fashion, but not crazy bad. We rely more on frequent snowfall than a big storm. We are not going to get a 2-3' noreaster (our big storms are 6-12") so its going to be how many snowy periods will there be? Warm, wet Dec followed by cold, dry Jan/Feb is usually a worry for some of the strong Ninos past (57-58, 65-66) but Im not as worried about super dry this time. The east coast should love the "potential" with the wet signal on all models.