Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good point, I hadn't noticed that...it's actually like +4F.

Just taking that [temperature] map from face value, I would take that as just a massive flood of PAC air into North America but the structure of those temperature anomalies I think can be the product of two scenarios:

1. A configuration in which Arctic air is displaced well south (akin to a +PNA/-AO combo)

2. Those colder anomalies in the south are the product of extensive clouds and precipitation, so the anomalies are more of a product of diurnal departures versus the result of a pattern favoring colder air displaced south. 

If that product is showing extreme cold departures on the other side of the hemisphere, then I would absolutely believe scenario 2. Now, obviously, at our latitude even slightly above temperatures can be fine for snow. So I'm not stating we'll be snowless...but it just adds another difficulty we'd have to contend with. But...the structure of the precipitation anomalies, sort of indicates to me increased potential for cyclogenesis off the SE coast...I'd take chances with bringing storms up the coast and just hoping we can get a far enough offshore storm track and pull in some cold. As you know, a "furnace" in southeast Canada does not mean lack of "cold"

[soadforecasterx]

@weatherwiz Believe this is what you wanted to see. 

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

@weatherwiz Believe this is what you wanted to see. 

Thank you.

Well I'll be damned, that probably is some Arctic or Polar air being displaced south into the U.S. Well if that is the case...this could set the stage for a very big winter  

Actually, going from memory here but this kind of has 1957-1958 vibes?

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Just taking that [temperature] map from face value, I would take that as just a massive flood of PAC air into North America but the structure of those temperature anomalies I think can be the product of two scenarios:

1. A configuration in which Arctic air is displaced well south (akin to a +PNA/-AO combo)

2. Those colder anomalies in the south are the product of extensive clouds and precipitation, so the anomalies are more of a product of diurnal departures versus the result of a pattern favoring colder air displaced south. 

If that product is showing extreme cold departures on the other side of the hemisphere, then I would absolutely believe scenario 2. Now, obviously, at our latitude even slightly above temperatures can be fine for snow. So I'm not stating we'll be snowless...but it just adds another difficulty we'd have to contend with. But...the structure of the precipitation anomalies, sort of indicates to me increased potential for cyclogenesis off the SE coast...I'd take chances with bringing storms up the coast and just hoping we can get a far enough offshore storm track and pull in some cold. As you know, a "furnace" in southeast Canada does not mean lack of "cold"

Yea, I know it will be warm....otherwise I'd be expecting well above average snowfall given the amount of percip. we should see. I think normal snowfall is about our ceiling this year if everything breaks right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Thank you.

Well I'll be damned, that probably is some Arctic or Polar air being displaced south into the U.S. Well if that is the case...this could set the stage for a very big winter  

Actually, going from memory here but this kind of has 1957-1958 vibes?

Yes....maybe a bit of 1965 and 1986, too....though the latter is a poor extra tropical Pacific match.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think we will tap that cold in Siberia for a brief interval or two during the second half.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes....maybe a bit of 1965 and 1986, too....though the latter is a poor extra tropical Pacific match.

You know what's funny...

In one of my spring classes we were going over the various models and seasonal models and I remember commenting that the CFS was looking like 1957-1958-ish. I now remember at that time thinking that despite potential for a super strong EL Nino, this winter could surprise and deviate greatly from some of the previous events...maybe I need to get back on that train  

But I have very little trust in these seasonal models really. I think they are weighted on climatological mean/average, especially when ENSO is a big player. So say if the forecast is for a weak event or a strong event...the output is going to closely resemble that of "averaging" weak or strong events but there is alot of variability between individual events and I am not sure these models are built to "understand" that

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

You know what's funny...

In one of my spring classes we were going over the various models and seasonal models and I remember commenting that the CFS was looking like 1957-1958-ish. I now remember at that time thinking that despite potential for a super strong EL Nino, this winter could surprise and deviate greatly from some of the previous events...maybe I need to get back on that train  

But I have very little trust in these seasonal models really. I think they are weighted on climatological mean/average, especially when ENSO is a big player. So say if the forecast is for a weak event or a strong event...the output is going to closely resemble that of "averaging" weak or strong events but there is alot of variability between individual events and I am not sure these models are built to "understand" that

Well, it was discussed in the main ENSO thread that the JMA actually nailed the Aleutian ridge this summer, which is NOT stock El Nino....frankly, neither is the -NAO that is being flagged by all guidance, even the EURO...so they are seeing something beyond ENSO. I think it's valid, albeit overcooked. We aren't getting a DJFM mean -NAO, but it does speak to the volatility of the coming season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

My largest knock on 1957 is it occurred right near solar max, which is not as hostile to blocking as descending solar, but that it just one factor.

[Pennfisherman]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I know it will be warm....otherwise I'd be expecting well above average snowfall given the amount of percip. we should see. I think normal snowfall is about our ceiling this year if everything breaks right.

I would imagine we don't have those long stretches of snow on the ground even if we hit normal snowfall. Seems likely if we have good storms the snow wont stick around long. I had snow on the ground for most of last winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Pennfisherman said:

I would imagine we don't have those long stretches of snow on the ground even if we hit normal snowfall. Seems likely if we have good storms the snow wont stick around long. I had snow on the ground for most of last winter. 

For the most part, but I could see a good 3 week stretch between mid January and mid February we're that could be decent retention. 1983 was like that.

[stadiumwave]

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My largest knock on 1957 is it occurred right near solar max, which is not as hostile to blocking as descending solar, but that it just one factor.

Aren't we still right near solar max (like 2002-03 and 2014-15, which were both great, el nino/+ENSO winters)?

[bristolri_wx]

Interesting read/analysis:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/super-el-nino-builds-atmospheric-hurricane-shield-winter-2026-2027-connections-united-states-canada-fa/

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Aren't we still right near solar max (like 2002-03 and 2014-15, which were both great, el nino/+ENSO winters)?

No...2 years removed, approaching geomagnetic peak.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bristolri_wx said:

Interesting read/analysis:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/super-el-nino-builds-atmospheric-hurricane-shield-winter-2026-2027-connections-united-states-canada-fa/

Let me guess....he favors big time blocking. 

[bristolri_wx]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Let me guess....he favors big time blocking. 

"...But what I have also found is a connection in the stratosphere. The image below shows a warmer winter stratosphere and a weaker/disrupted Polar Vortex, following a slow hurricane season. This does not imply that hurricane season directly impacts the Polar Vortex, but there is likely a common El Niño factor at play that also includes the Pacific impacts and atmospheric waves.

With this in mind, I loaded and plotted the latest forecast data for the stratosphere. Below you can see the Polar Vortex wind forecast, which is how we estimate its strength. In this latest seasonal data, we can clearly see an interesting deceleration and a potential disruption trend starting in early January..."

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

"...But what I have also found is a connection in the stratosphere. The image below shows a warmer winter stratosphere and a weaker/disrupted Polar Vortex, following a slow hurricane season. This does not imply that hurricane season directly impacts the Polar Vortex, but there is likely a common El Niño factor at play that also includes the Pacific impacts and atmospheric waves.

With this in mind, I loaded and plotted the latest forecast data for the stratosphere. Below you can see the Polar Vortex wind forecast, which is how we estimate its strength. In this latest seasonal data, we can clearly see an interesting deceleration and a potential disruption trend starting in early January..."

Shocker....

He favors blocking every season if you go back and read through his stuff. He keeps touting super El Nino as being very disruptive to the PV, but neglects the fact that we are 0-4 in triggering a SSW during a super El Nino. He likes to cherry pick data to suit his agenda...what he doesn't mention is that the portion of the solar cycle (descending) that predisposes the Pacific basin to super El Nino is very hostile to the development of sustained high latitude blocking. He harped on the sea ice pattern over the summer as a factor in the argument for  blocking this winter, but failed to mention that it only has predictive value during the easterly phase of the QBO.

Needless to say, I'm about as much of a fan of his work as he is of objectivity. That said, they do make for interesting reads and he has some cool graphics.

[CoastalWx]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Shocker....

He favors blocking every season if you go back and read through his stuff. He keeps touting super El Nino as being very disruptive to the PV, but neglects the fact that we are 0-4 in triggering a SSW during a super El Nino. He likes to cherry pick data to suit his agenda...what he doesn't mention is that the portion of the solar cycle (descending) that predisposes the Pacific basin to super El Nino is very hostile to the development of sustained high latitude blocking. He harped on the sea ice pattern over the summer as a factor in the argument for  blocking this winter, but failed to mention that it only has predictive value during the easterly phase of the QBO.

Needless to say, I'm about as much of a fan of his work as he is of objectivity. That said, they do make for interesting reads and he has some cool graphics.

The logic used to be a busier hurricane season favors blocking in the winter. Although that was kind of old school thinking, not sure if that is applicable now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The logic used to be a busier hurricane season favors blocking in the winter. Although that was kind of old school thinking, not sure if that is applicable now.

There is some validity to that, but it's more useful during cool ENSO. There probably is some statistical connection between very inactive hurricane seasons and poor subsequent winters due to super El Nino.