Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[40/70 Benchmark]

Early work on the Extra tropical Pacific is done.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/08/preliminary-assessment-of-extratropical.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pretty good consensus between my composites.

 

[forkyfork]

warm and rainy

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is the European monthly depiction of precip anomalies overlaid with temp anomalies for the month of Feb. Euro is my preferred solution because it doesn't have the zonked Modoki look that the CANSIPS and JMA do....that is overdone and crap. But the Euro simply evolves the El Nino in such a manner whereas the warmth gets pretty evenly distributed..pretty basinwide for winter. You drop those type of precip anomalies, I will gladly take my chances with a +1 temp anomaly at this latitude.

[CoastalWx]

This has a feeling of a 128-495 gradient deal. Not that the coast gets skunked (might get a good one in Feb) but I could see Dec-Jan be more wet then white on the coast vs what may occur just inland. Kinda like 02-03 only milder. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This has a feeling of a 128-495 gradient deal. Not that the coast gets skunked (might get a good one in Feb) but I could see Dec-Jan be more wet then white on the coast vs what may occur just inland. Kinda like 02-03 only milder. 

Absolute same page....128-495 CFs. Megalopolis Storm CF was right over Wilmington.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is January:

[40/70 Benchmark]

Has December near normal surprisingly. Is it a bit too cold? Probably....likely underdoing the magnitude and arial extent of that Canadian ridge, but I don't think this will be a bottom-dweller season in terms of snowfall.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolute same page....128-495 CFs. Megalopolis Storm CF was right over Wilmington.

Yeah kind of due for those. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

 CFS January rendition would make some fun times for WOR folks....Miller B-East, much?

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah kind of due for those. 

I would do okay, but could def. see it being an ORH season...they have had some uncharacteristically skunkish seasons of late....gonna see that regress.

[SJonesWX]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This has a feeling of a 128-495 gradient deal. Not that the coast gets skunked (might get a good one in Feb) but I could see Dec-Jan be more wet then white on the coast vs what may occur just inland. Kinda like 02-03 only milder. 

talk dirty to me

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

talk dirty to me

lol don’t expect 02-03. I was just using that as an example. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

This has a feeling of a 128-495 gradient deal. Not that the coast gets skunked (might get a good one in Feb) but I could see Dec-Jan be more wet then white on the coast vs what may occur just inland. Kinda like 02-03 only milder. 

ECMWF hints at this, though I think this is exaggerated....likely closer to the coast than this. That is a resolution issue...like when the GFS places the CF near ORH a few days out from a storm.

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the European monthly depiction of precip anomalies overlaid with temp anomalies for the month of Feb. Euro is my preferred solution because it doesn't have the zonked Modoki look that the CANSIPS and JMA do....that is overdone and crap. But the Euro simply evolves the El Nino in such a manner whereas the warmth gets pretty evenly distributed..pretty basinwide for winter. You drop those type of precip anomalies, I will gladly take my chances with a +1 temp anomaly at this latitude.

Would sign in a heartbeat.

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

lol don’t expect 02-03. I was just using that as an example. 

Too late

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

lol don’t expect 02-03. I was just using that as an example. 

nah you gotta stand behind your forecast man. 100+" for CON. thanks.

[Damage In Tolland]

Personally here I am prepping for an all time record low snowfall season 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Personally here I am prepping for an all time record low snowfall season 

Prep this

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Prep this

Don’t see anyway possible of your snowy interior SNE winter 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Don’t see anyway possible of your snowy interior SNE winter 

Definitely not interior CT.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Definitely not interior CT.

Then we are in agreement 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Then we are in agreement 

Union north?

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Union north?

NW of Route 2

[FXWX]

38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Personally here I am prepping for an all time record low snowfall season 

I know a lot of this discussion is tongue and cheek, but given the high probability of above normal precip this winter, the potential for a couple of nasty / disruptive Nor'easters is on the table!  Wall to wall snow cover!  NO!  But multiple big eastern US and East Coast storm events will produce some significant threats; including interior CT... Marginal temps for sure, but dynamic events nonetheless...  

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I know a lot of this discussion is tongue in cheek, but given the high probability of above normal precip this winter, the potential for a couple of nasty / disruptive Nor'easters is on the table!  Wall to wall snow cover!  NO!  But multiple big eastern US and East Coast storm events will produce some significant threats; including interior CT... Marginal temps for sure, but dynamic events nonetheless...  

 Hope so but I just think it’s going to generally be too mild even at elevation . Maybe NW CT van get one though i

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I know a lot of this discussion is tongue in cheek, but given the high probability of above normal precip this winter, the potential for a couple of nasty / disruptive Nor'easters is on the table!  Wall to wall snow cover!  NO!  But multiple big eastern US and East Coast storm events will produce some significant threats; including interior CT... Marginal temps for sure, but dynamic events nonetheless...  

Need an event that’s snow at 1100’+ WoR and 33 rain at Tolland.

[WxWatcher007]

37 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I know a lot of this discussion is tongue in cheek, but given the high probability of above normal precip this winter, the potential for a couple of nasty / disruptive Nor'easters is on the table!  Wall to wall snow cover!  NO!  But multiple big eastern US and East Coast storm events will produce some significant threats; including interior CT... Marginal temps for sure, but dynamic events nonetheless...  

This. As an old friend in the Mid-Atlantic forum used to say religiously…just give me the precip and I’ll take my chances. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, FXWX said:

I know a lot of this discussion is tongue and cheek, but given the high probability of above normal precip this winter, the potential for a couple of nasty / disruptive Nor'easters is on the table!  Wall to wall snow cover!  NO!  But multiple big eastern US and East Coast storm events will produce some significant threats; including interior CT... Marginal temps for sure, but dynamic events nonetheless...  

Worth it to mention...  WV surplus/transport anomalies available in the general canvas.  This would be due to both the increases that are CC attributed, whilst +ENSO and probable STJ input ... working on top of one another.  Sounds like a QPF synergy monster if you ask me.   Where it rains and/or snows it does with least excuse to do so and heavily.  Relatively weaker profiled synoptic disturbances over-achieving. 

 

[FXWX]

56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Need an event that’s snow at 1100’+ WoR and 33 rain at Tolland.

I've always thought Kev should built a house at elevation in northern Litchfield county or the Berks... Would greatly improve his outlook about life.