Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[40/70 Benchmark]

Early work on the Extra tropical Pacific is done.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/08/preliminary-assessment-of-extratropical.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pretty good consensus between my composites.

 

[forkyfork]

warm and rainy

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is the European monthly depiction of precip anomalies overlaid with temp anomalies for the month of Feb. Euro is my preferred solution because it doesn't have the zonked Modoki look that the CANSIPS and JMA do....that is overdone and crap. But the Euro simply evolves the El Nino in such a manner whereas the warmth gets pretty evenly distributed..pretty basinwide for winter. You drop those type of precip anomalies, I will gladly take my chances with a +1 temp anomaly at this latitude.

[CoastalWx]

This has a feeling of a 128-495 gradient deal. Not that the coast gets skunked (might get a good one in Feb) but I could see Dec-Jan be more wet then white on the coast vs what may occur just inland. Kinda like 02-03 only milder. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This has a feeling of a 128-495 gradient deal. Not that the coast gets skunked (might get a good one in Feb) but I could see Dec-Jan be more wet then white on the coast vs what may occur just inland. Kinda like 02-03 only milder. 

Absolute same page....128-495 CFs. Megalopolis Storm CF was right over Wilmington.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is January:

[40/70 Benchmark]

Has December near normal surprisingly. Is it a bit too cold? Probably....likely underdoing the magnitude and arial extent of that Canadian ridge, but I don't think this will be a bottom-dweller season in terms of snowfall.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolute same page....128-495 CFs. Megalopolis Storm CF was right over Wilmington.

Yeah kind of due for those. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

 CFS January rendition would make some fun times for WOR folks....Miller B-East, much?

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah kind of due for those. 

I would do okay, but could def. see it being an ORH season...they have had some uncharacteristically skunkish seasons of late....gonna see that regress.

[SJonesWX]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This has a feeling of a 128-495 gradient deal. Not that the coast gets skunked (might get a good one in Feb) but I could see Dec-Jan be more wet then white on the coast vs what may occur just inland. Kinda like 02-03 only milder. 

talk dirty to me

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

talk dirty to me

lol don’t expect 02-03. I was just using that as an example. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

This has a feeling of a 128-495 gradient deal. Not that the coast gets skunked (might get a good one in Feb) but I could see Dec-Jan be more wet then white on the coast vs what may occur just inland. Kinda like 02-03 only milder. 

ECMWF hints at this, though I think this is exaggerated....likely closer to the coast than this. That is a resolution issue...like when the GFS places the CF near ORH a few days out from a storm.