Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs

[dendrite]

3k not backing down. Looks great.

[Damage In Tolland]

36 minutes ago, dendrite said:

3k not backing down. Looks great.

Now post 12k and H Rcubed 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Now post 12k and H cubed 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dendrite said:

Nam vs world . Can see the dry air press even on these “wet” runs .

0.00

[dendrite]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Nam vs world . Can see the dry air press even on these “wet” runs .

0.00

How about Rufus? 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

How about Rufus? 

Run off NAM parameters and replacing the NAM. 
 

post the others that are totally dry 

[Typhoon Tip]

Nam is always north of all of the guidance at this range
 

228th time stated

I guess once in a blue moon it’s right, but most of the time it comes south

[Typhoon Tip]

There is some logic in expecting the NAM to be north bias without its ongoing performance… Has to do with a negative north Atlantic oscillation particularly on the western limb. With that being the case the forcing is south so the suppression similar to the GFS is probably a better tele connection for that particular index state.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There is some logic in expecting the NAM to be north bias without its ongoing performance… Has to do with a negative north Atlantic oscillation particularly on the western limb. With that being the case the forcing is south so the suppression similar to the GFS is probably a better tele connection for that particular index state.

When the NAM is the only Hi res that rains.. you know to toss 

[dendrite]

I’m just trolling, but the 3k isn’t always north.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m just trolling, but the 3k isn’t always north.

Yeah, no comment on the 3K

 

Well, that’s a nasty couple of days next week, huh?  The thing is that’s been in models for quite some time the first through the third. Solid teleconnector signal too.

probably just have to mail that in.  Hopefully we can get 2 to 3 inches of basin coverage out of that.  I think it gets mild to warm at the end of that week, though. The real green up thrust.

[WinterWolf]

Everything has a half inch here from Saturday into early Sunday.  Hoping the drier ideas work out. 

[vortex95]

GFS and ECMWF show the "wheel of misfortune" in the cards.  Well, we do need the rain.  Maybe some big snows NNE?

[ineedsnow]

Interesting week ahead hmmm

[Baroclinic Zone]

Frosty AM. 29F

[dendrite]

27.5°

Make it stop

[Damage In Tolland]

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Interesting week ahead hmmm

For snow in far NW NY state?

[512high]

Sneaky cold am....again. 29F for the low, light frost.

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

For snow in far NW NY state?

And probably the Berkshires... Plenty of rain for us and cool to cold temps.. we take!! Might have to go for a drive next weekend to see some snow  tim kelly also posted this.. we take and take again

[ineedsnow]

Far out but Euro AI crushed Northern New England 

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

And probably the Berkshires... Plenty of rain for us and cool to cold temps.. we take!! Might have to go for a drive next weekend to see some snow  tim kelly also posted this.. we take and take again

Doesn’t seem like too much rain this coming week . Possibly early May better big warm up 

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Doesn’t seem like too much rain this coming week . Possibly early May better big warm up 

"big" may be subjective...   "when" also not so clear.   I'd give it the first full week of the month to be safe.   

Most of what we are seeing in the pattern forcing appears to be -NAO/West  orienting.   The index prognostics have that relaxing during the first week... 

The 00z Euro decided to go bonkers with a new +PNA right as that is happening, though.  And that really delays and complicates the exit strategy from the -NAO.  If that has legs then an unseasonable trough delays any warmer transition.   We'll see.   The GEFs/GFS diverge from that idea and instead go toward neutralizing most fields.  If that's the case, we go back to modestly AN.

It's spring.  Variance headaches are typical -

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

"big" may be subjective...   "when" also not so clear.   I'd give it the first full week of the month to be safe.   

Most of what we are seeing in the pattern forcing appears to be -NAO/West  orienting.   The index prognostics have that relaxing during the first week... 

The 00z Euro decided to go bonkers with a new +PNA right as that is happening, though.  And that really delays and complicates the exit strategy from the -NAO.  If that has legs then an unseasonable trough delays any warmer transition.   We'll see.   The GEFs/GFS diverge from that idea and instead go toward neutralizing most fields.  If that's the case, we go back to modestly AN.

It's spring.  Variance headaches are typical -

I‘m thinking after the 10th or so 

[radarman]

31 for the low.  Beautiful nonetheless.  Sunny, birds chirping.  Buds starting to open up into a light green mist in the canopy.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Far out but Euro AI crushed Northern New England 

A lot more wrong with that than just being way out there  ... 

[dendrite]

Mins this morn

[CoastalWx]

Why do we live here 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Why do we live here 

So that we can get a winter like this last season every 8 to 11 years, otherwise, ...delude and gaslight ourselves and each other into believing we're here for snow ?  

pretty much -

Faux 

I realize no one cares ... but soon as I've procured the wherewithal I'm out of here. 

[dendrite]

38 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Mins this morn

Just realized 23° at MVY

[MJO812]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Why do we live here 

More peaceful and wintry than many areas