Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs

[Typhoon Tip]

Well there's a statistical history for a time-lagged onset of -NAO,  after warm anomalies over the eastern continent.  The snow in October 2011 was in fact preceded by a week of warm anomalies mid month that just summarily relayed into western limb blocking and history became so..  Just one example in many.   Some of the March snows in late 20teens were also preceded by early warmth.  etc etc

Not mentioning snow because I think it's gong to snow, so don't go on me.  I'm just mentioning to emphasize the evidence.  A colder regression before a true seasonal escape is a scenario that has some precedence.

[Typhoon Tip]

22 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

   ...Northeast...

   Rounds of thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and
   evening within a warm advection regime. MLCAPE should increase to
   around 1000 J/kg within a moistening low-level airmass. Strong
   deep-layer westerly flow and steepening low-level lapse rates will
   support isolated strong wind gusts across the region.

 

I wouldn't be shocked if the Marginal gets extended E and a smaller Slight region gets embedded..

Bump for extension

[Damage In Tolland]

Congrats Route 2 north today. Steined south 

[Typhoon Tip]

I was shocked to see the overnight NAM solutions back off the Wednesday afternoon BD arrival for eastern region.

I think what's actually happening is that there isn't a ton a synoptic support/structure for genesis and subsequent motion in this case.  It appears the models have been handling rain cooled air.   There's are periodic/ nondescript convective pulses of QPF running W-E up in central and NNE, and coupling outflow with GOM oceanic cold is causing subtle +PP discontinuities.  

They can be real though.. but seeing the NAM back off is a red flag that convective logistics with outflow is problematic.  

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Congrats Route 2 north today. Steined south 

mm... storms turn right.  I wouldn't be surprised if Mohawk Trail initialization starts peeling S ...sending more anvil up our way. 

[jbenedet]

MJO phase 8 to 1 in late April is a -NAO vibe but with AN tendency in NNE especially as you move east and north. “Best in Maine”.
 

You can see that happening with the development of a weak coastal in gulf of Maine late Friday into early Saturday. That will send the boundary down to the mid Atlantic around Long Island with nasty easterly fetch. Guidance still catching on. 
 

 

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

MJO phase 8 to 1 in late April is a -NAO vibe but with AN tendency in NNE especially as you move east and north. “Best in Maine”.
 

You can see that happening with the development of a weak coastal in gulf of Maine late Friday into early Saturday. That will send the boundary down to the mid Atlantic around Long Island with nasty easterly fetch. Guidance still catching on.

 

 

 

 

I'd like to see a couple more runs with a modicum of realized continuity on that.   The Euro and particularly GGEM the most, appear too conserved ( to me ... ) wrt a wave ejecting E through a ridge trying to amplify at that time.   The GFS, pains me to admit ... is damping that waves ability to materialize that feature; which in the total synoptic manifold/evolution over those days really argues it should.   Anyway, so the former rides a mid level wind max over a series of stacked outflow boundaries and oatmeals a Miller B out of 1010 mb layout... okay -

[Typhoon Tip]

Curious if today busts MOS by a bit.   MET/MAV are 78 to 82-sish along the BDL-FIT-ASH arc here in the interior.  

+14.5 C at 850, and the mixing layer appears capable of being that high today ..., extrapolates to about 27.5 C at the 1000 mb hash on the skew t plot, and that doesn't include the slope to the 2-meter T.  Probably 30 C at the absolute bottom if/when these skies remain this sunny along with these other synoptic circumstances. Deep layer flow is WSW like this and not over-bearing DP whilst a 50+ launch

should be 84 or 85 to allow April to force a conserved high. A month from now I'd even go 87

[CoastalWx]

Man it’s summer 

[HoarfrostHubb]

35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Curious if today busts MOS by a bit.   MET/MAV are 78 to 82-sish along the BDL-FIT-ASH arc here in the interior.  

+14.5 C at 850, and the mixing layer appears capable of being that high today ..., extrapolates to about 27.5 C at the 1000 mb hash on the skew t plot, and that doesn't include the slope to the 2-meter T.  Probably 30 C at the absolute bottom if/when these skies remain this sunny along with these other synoptic circumstances. Deep layer flow is WSW like this and not over-bearing DP whilst a 50+ launch

should be 84 or 85 to allow April to force a conserved high. A month from now I'd even go 87

I think the big "concern" is clouds putting a lid on it...  you could very well be right.   Not bad for mid Napril

[dendrite]

Today is a slog so far again. 

58.9° and BKN skies

[Spanks45]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man it’s summer 

Feels like it, it has that late June morning vibe, but the chorus of birds and landscape screams Spring...

[CoastalWx]

72. Norway maples early stages of leafing out.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

Feels like it, it has that late June morning vibe, but the chorus of birds and landscape screams Spring...

It’s gone next week so we enjoy now. 

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s gone next week so we enjoy now. 

I know, sucks....it's close though

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I think the big "concern" is clouds putting a lid on it...  you could very well be right.   Not bad for mid Napril

Not "right", just asking the question.  

But yeah, ... need to keep in mind 80 F is ahead of climo by a considerable margin. 

I've seen several of these since the big one, Mar 29/30/31 1998.  We hovered around 90 those three days of lore. Jaw drop early heat.  Prior to that... never.  I never had experienced, in my life, temperatures exceeding 80F prior to May 1sts.  

I've lived in two regions of the country in my time:  SW lower Michigan; SNE. The climate of these two regions are quite similar.  Prior to the last 20 years.. cold winters, then continental sub-tropical summers, with wildly variant transition seasons in between.  Both are getting "climate traumatized" in the last couple of decades...but excluding that for a moment, there are subtle differences... Namely, winters tend to be drier out there, and perhaps a modestly colder but not sensibly or even geo-physically significantly different.  SNE tends to more proficient snow fall when it is actually snowing.  Then of course, Michigan deals with Lake Effect activity in the winters. 

I left the Michigan climate behind in 1984 as an early teenager.  So obviously the ballast of my climate experiences in life are SNE at this point.   That said, neither region did I experience or observe 80F in Mar or Apr, prior to 1998.   Since than, I've seen 80 to even 90F become "occasional" to Mar and Apr's.  

SO, tho it is way early ( still, with a light cough), it's happened enough for there to be some expectation to "get on with summer once winter ends". 

It's like we're in climate interpretive limbo

 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

72. Norway maples early stages of leafing out.

It’s pruning season. This is where you properly trim them. 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

72. Norway maples early stages of leafing out.

I was wondering about those... Don't have any around here in town, but they should be open with those maple flowers that give off that pleasant background aroma.  I love that.   Norway Maples are denoted an "invasive species" but they are kind of a welcome army in book. 

[dendrite]

They’re giant weeds that threaten the native diversity. Kill’em with fire. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They’re giant weeds that threaten the native diversity. Kill’em with fire. 

Totally agree with you. Luckily, because I live in such a violent weather area, mother nature has been taken them out slowly.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They’re giant weeds that threaten the native diversity. Kill’em with fire. 

yeah, why? 

Just curious.  Trees/forestry science isn't my bag.  Like at all.  Complete dolt.  I'm just curious what their 'pernicious' quotient is.   Threatening native diversity?  it seems to me they are a new members, so that increased the diversity.  Unless you mean something else ...

 

[Typhoon Tip]

73 ... might be able to add a tick or even two before the 10:05 

"10 after 10" is mid 80s. 

The old standard ...ha.  

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

73 ... might be able to add a tick or even two before the 10:05 

"10 after 10" is mid 80s. 

The old standard ...ha.  

Fast growing…outcompete natives. They wake up earlier and get a headstart shading out others. They spread their seed more than Ray. 

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Fast growing…outcompete natives. They wake up earlier and get a headstart shading out others. They spread their seed more than Ray. 

Lot of urban areas have them. Easy for them to grow as sidewalk trees. But they spreading. 
 

I wasn’t joking though, these things have been getting slaughtered left and right over the last 10 years or so with some of these storms that we’ve got. They aren’t the strongest.

[Damage In Tolland]

By the time this heat wave is in the books on Sunday, every leaf on every species will be out 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

They’re giant weeds that threaten the native diversity. Kill’em with fire. 

One of the most underrated invasives. On Long Island they produce pure stands. Very easy to see early and late as they are often the only foliage. They are also short lived and brittle. It’s too bad they were so extensively planted during the suburban sprawl of the 50/60/70s in the NYC and BOS Mets.


.

[ineedsnow]

Just got back from hiking up mount wachusett.. im not in shape after winter   lots of people heading up today.  

[SouthCoastMA]

Last part of April looks like ass..had a feeling

[SouthCoastMA]

74.1° today - amazing turnaround compared to yesterday

[CoastalWx]

77/61. Ass stuck to undies outside doing yard work.