3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Day 2 MOD Risk)

[Kmlwx]

Continuing discussion and eventually observations/nowcast posts for the Monday severe weather event potential can go here. @WxUSAF or other mods please pin this thread if you get the chance. 

15% TOR and 60% WIND are extremely rare in these parts. While I am not downplaying anything - I do think the appearance of 60% wind has a lot to do with the new SPC outlook methodology. Nonetheless, an active weather day tomorrow seems on tap. 

Usual failure modes still exist (stabilizing cloud cover or early day showers)

The shear environment is pretty insane. 

[snowfan]

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Wow, haven’t seen this in a while.  Maybe August 2023 was the last moderate risk day here?  At least the QLCS holds off until after school dismissal and kids have a chance to get home. 

[dailylurker]

19 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Wow, haven’t seen this in a while.  Maybe August 2023 was the last moderate risk day here?  At least the QLCS holds off until after school dismissal and kids have a chance to get home. 

Very impressive setup. Especially for March. Looks like a pretty exciting event. I still wish I was up in the UP for the blizzard. If I wasn't back to my busy season I would be up in Marquette right now. 

[George BM]

Well hello there pinned severe thread. 

First time we've done one since February 25, 2017 IIRC when Ian made one for that event (That event produced an EF-1 in La Plata IIRC).

[Imgoinhungry]

Looks like a bit of a later start per nam and hrrr recent runs? Hopefully no impact to school dismissal.


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